Mine planning is a complex task that involves many uncertainties. During early stage feasibility, available mineral resources can only be estimated based on limited sampling of ore grades from sparse drilling, leading to large uncertainty in under-sampled parts of the deposit. Planning the extraction schedule of ore over the life of a mine is crucial for its economic viability. We introduce a new approach for determining an "optimal schedule under uncertainty" that provides probabilistic bounds on the profits obtained in each period. This treatment of uncertainty within an economic framework reduces previously difficult-to-use models of variability into actionable insights. The new method discounts profits based on uncertainty within an evolutionary algorithm, sacrificing economic optimality of a single geological model for improving the downside risk over an ensemble of equally likely models. We provide experimental studies using Maptek's mine planning software Evolution. Our results show that our new approach is successful for effectively making use of uncertainty information in the mine planning process.
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Image-based precision medicine aims to personalize treatment decisions based on an individual's unique imaging features so as to improve their clinical outcome. Machine learning frameworks that integrate uncertainty estimation as part of their treatment recommendations would be safer and more reliable. However, little work has been done in adapting uncertainty estimation techniques and validation metrics for precision medicine. In this paper, we use Bayesian deep learning for estimating the posterior distribution over factual and counterfactual outcomes on several treatments. This allows for estimating the uncertainty for each treatment option and for the individual treatment effects (ITE) between any two treatments. We train and evaluate this model to predict future new and enlarging T2 lesion counts on a large, multi-center dataset of MR brain images of patients with multiple sclerosis, exposed to several treatments during randomized controlled trials. We evaluate the correlation of the uncertainty estimate with the factual error, and, given the lack of ground truth counterfactual outcomes, demonstrate how uncertainty for the ITE prediction relates to bounds on the ITE error. Lastly, we demonstrate how knowledge of uncertainty could modify clinical decision-making to improve individual patient and clinical trial outcomes.
As an efficient distributed machine learning approach, Federated learning (FL) can obtain a shared model by iterative local model training at the user side and global model aggregating at the central server side, thereby protecting privacy of users. Mobile users in FL systems typically communicate with base stations (BSs) via wireless channels, where training performance could be degraded due to unreliable access caused by user mobility. However, existing work only investigates a static scenario or random initialization of user locations, which fail to capture mobility in real-world networks. To tackle this issue, we propose a practical model for user mobility in FL across multiple BSs, and develop a user scheduling and resource allocation method to minimize the training delay with constrained communication resources. Specifically, we first formulate an optimization problem with user mobility that jointly considers user selection, BS assignment to users, and bandwidth allocation to minimize the latency in each communication round. This optimization problem turned out to be NP-hard and we proposed a delay-aware greedy search algorithm (DAGSA) to solve it. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performance than the state-of-the-art baselines and a certain level of user mobility could improve training performance.
Large language models (LLMs) have achieved widespread success on a variety of in-context few-shot tasks, but this success is typically evaluated via correctness rather than consistency. We argue that self-consistency is an important criteria for valid multi-step reasoning in tasks where the solution is composed of the answers to multiple sub-steps. We propose two types of self-consistency that are particularly important for multi-step reasoning -- hypothetical consistency (a model's ability to predict what its output would be in a hypothetical other context) and compositional consistency (consistency of a model's final outputs when intermediate sub-steps are replaced with the model's outputs for those steps). We demonstrate that multiple variants of the GPT-3/-4 models exhibit poor consistency rates across both types of consistency on a variety of tasks.
This work is dedicated to the study of how uncertainty estimation of the human motion prediction can be embedded into constrained optimization techniques, such as Model Predictive Control (MPC) for the social robot navigation. We propose several cost objectives and constraint functions obtained from the uncertainty of predicting pedestrian positions and related to the probability of the collision that can be applied to the MPC, and all the different variants are compared in challenging scenes with multiple agents. The main question this paper tries to answer is: what are the most important uncertainty-based criteria for social MPC? For that, we evaluate the proposed approaches with several social navigation metrics in an extensive set of scenarios of different complexity in reproducible synthetic environments. The main outcome of our study is a foundation for a practical guide on when and how to use uncertainty-aware approaches for social robot navigation in practice and what are the most effective criteria.
The concept of shared ledger systems offering a single source of truth has repeatedly called traditional bookkeeping into question. Improving upon the long-standing double-entry system, solutions such as the Resource-Event-Agent (REA) accounting framework, triple-entry accounting (TEA) and blockchain have been advanced. However, to date, the historical development of these concepts remains murky. This paper conducts a genealogical analysis of shared ledger systems, in particular tracing the development of REA, TEA and blockchain. We show how the REA framework has had a distinct influence on independent streams of research in the field of TEA, and how this interaction may be traced to the present incarnation of shared ledger systems in blockchain. In doing so, we duly acknowledge the influence of key individuals contributing to this development, correct common misconceptions and map out how the paths of REA, TEA and blockchain overlap in the realm of shared ledger systems.
In many stochastic service systems, decision-makers find themselves making a sequence of decisions, with the number of decisions being unpredictable. To enhance these decisions, it is crucial to uncover the causal impact these decisions have through careful analysis of observational data from the system. However, these decisions are not made independently, as they are shaped by previous decisions and outcomes. This phenomenon is called sequential bias and violates a key assumption in causal inference that one person's decision does not interfere with the potential outcomes of another. To address this issue, we establish a connection between sequential bias and the subfield of causal inference known as dynamic treatment regimes. We expand these frameworks to account for the random number of decisions by modeling the decision-making process as a marked point process. Consequently, we can define and identify causal effects to quantify sequential bias. Moreover, we propose estimators and explore their properties, including double robustness and semiparametric efficiency. In a case study of 27,831 encounters with a large academic emergency department, we use our approach to demonstrate that the decision to route a patient to an area for low acuity patients has a significant impact on the care of future patients.
Algorithms for online learning typically require one or more boundedness assumptions: that the domain is bounded, that the losses are Lipschitz, or both. In this paper, we develop a new setting for online learning with unbounded domains and non-Lipschitz losses. For this setting we provide an algorithm which guarantees $R_{T}(u)\le \tilde O(G\|u\|\sqrt{T}+L\|u\|^{2}\sqrt{T})$ regret on any problem where the subgradients satisfy $\|g_{t}\|\le G+L\|w_{t}\|$, and show that this bound is unimprovable without further assumptions. We leverage this algorithm to develop new saddle-point optimization algorithms that converge in duality gap in unbounded domains, even in the absence of meaningful curvature. Finally, we provide the first algorithm achieving non-trivial dynamic regret in an unbounded domain for non-Lipschitz losses, as well as a matching lower bound. The regret of our dynamic regret algorithm automatically improves to a novel $L^{*}$ bound when the losses are smooth.
Estimating human pose and shape from monocular images is a long-standing problem in computer vision. Since the release of statistical body models, 3D human mesh recovery has been drawing broader attention. With the same goal of obtaining well-aligned and physically plausible mesh results, two paradigms have been developed to overcome challenges in the 2D-to-3D lifting process: i) an optimization-based paradigm, where different data terms and regularization terms are exploited as optimization objectives; and ii) a regression-based paradigm, where deep learning techniques are embraced to solve the problem in an end-to-end fashion. Meanwhile, continuous efforts are devoted to improving the quality of 3D mesh labels for a wide range of datasets. Though remarkable progress has been achieved in the past decade, the task is still challenging due to flexible body motions, diverse appearances, complex environments, and insufficient in-the-wild annotations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first survey to focus on the task of monocular 3D human mesh recovery. We start with the introduction of body models and then elaborate recovery frameworks and training objectives by providing in-depth analyses of their strengths and weaknesses. We also summarize datasets, evaluation metrics, and benchmark results. Open issues and future directions are discussed in the end, hoping to motivate researchers and facilitate their research in this area. A regularly updated project page can be found at //github.com/tinatiansjz/hmr-survey.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
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