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Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Calibrating simulation models that take large quantities of multi-dimensional data as input is a hard simulation optimization problem. Existing adaptive sampling strategies offer a methodological solution. However, they may not sufficiently reduce the computational cost for estimation and solution algorithm's progress within a limited budget due to extreme noise levels and heteroskedasticity of system responses. We propose integrating stratification with adaptive sampling for the purpose of efficiency in optimization. Stratification can exploit local dependence in the simulation inputs and outputs. Yet, the state-of-the-art does not provide a full capability to adaptively stratify the data as different solution alternatives are evaluated. We devise two procedures for data-driven calibration problems that involve a large dataset with multiple covariates to calibrate models within a fixed overall simulation budget. The first approach dynamically stratifies the input data using binary trees, while the second approach uses closed-form solutions based on linearity assumptions between the objective function and concomitant variables. We find that dynamical adjustment of stratification structure accelerates optimization and reduces run-to-run variability in generated solutions. Our case study for calibrating a wind power simulation model, widely used in the wind industry, using the proposed stratified adaptive sampling, shows better-calibrated parameters under a limited budget.

Correlation clustering is a well-known unsupervised learning setting that deals with positive and negative pairwise similarities. In this paper, we study the case where the pairwise similarities are not given in advance and must be queried in a cost-efficient way. Thereby, we develop a generic active learning framework for this task that benefits from several advantages, e.g., flexibility in the type of feedback that a user/annotator can provide, adaptation to any correlation clustering algorithm and query strategy, and robustness to noise. In addition, we propose and analyze a number of novel query strategies suited to this setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework and the proposed query strategies via several experimental studies.

Recent empirical and theoretical studies have established the generalization capabilities of large machine learning models that are trained to (approximately or exactly) fit noisy data. In this work, we prove a surprising result that even if the ground truth itself is robust to adversarial examples, and the benignly overfitted model is benign in terms of the ``standard'' out-of-sample risk objective, this benign overfitting process can be harmful when out-of-sample data are subject to adversarial manipulation. More specifically, our main results contain two parts: (i) the min-norm estimator in overparameterized linear model always leads to adversarial vulnerability in the ``benign overfitting'' setting; (ii) we verify an asymptotic trade-off result between the standard risk and the ``adversarial'' risk of every ridge regression estimator, implying that under suitable conditions these two items cannot both be small at the same time by any single choice of the ridge regularization parameter. Furthermore, under the lazy training regime, we demonstrate parallel results on two-layer neural tangent kernel (NTK) model, which align with empirical observations in deep neural networks. Our finding provides theoretical insights into the puzzling phenomenon observed in practice, where the true target function (e.g., human) is robust against adverasrial attack, while beginly overfitted neural networks lead to models that are not robust.

In black-box optimization, noise in the objective function is inevitable. Noise disrupts the ranking of candidate solutions in comparison-based optimization, possibly deteriorating the search performance compared with a noiseless scenario. Explicit averaging takes the sample average of noisy objective function values and is widely used as a simple and versatile noise-handling technique. Although it is suitable for various applications, it is ineffective if the mean is not finite. We theoretically reveal that explicit averaging has a negative effect on the estimation of ground-truth rankings when assuming stably distributed noise without a finite mean. Alternatively, sign averaging is proposed as a simple but robust noise-handling technique. We theoretically prove that the sign averaging estimates the order of the medians of the noisy objective function values of a pair of points with arbitrarily high probability as the number of samples increases. Its advantages over explicit averaging and its robustness are also confirmed through numerical experiments.

An algorithm is developed to gradually relax the Differential Privacy (DP) guarantee of a randomized response. The output from each relaxation maintains the same probability distribution as a standard randomized response with the equivalent DP guarantee, ensuring identical utility as the standard approach. The entire relaxation process is proven to have the same DP guarantee as the most recent relaxed guarantee. The DP relaxation algorithm is adaptable to any Local Differential Privacy (LDP) mechanisms relying on randomized response. It has been seamlessly integrated into RAPPOR, an LDP crowdsourcing string-collecting tool, to optimize the utility of estimating the frequency of collected data. Additionally, it facilitates the relaxation of the DP guarantee for mean estimation based on randomized response. Finally, numerical experiments have been conducted to validate the utility and DP guarantee of the algorithm.

ReRecent studies in machine learning are based on models in which parameters or state variables are bounded restricted. These restrictions are from prior information to ensure the validity of scientific theories or structural consistency based on physical phenomena. The valuable information contained in the restrictions must be considered during the estimation process to improve estimation accuracy. Many researchers have focused on linear regression models subject to linear inequality restrictions, but generalized linear models have received little attention. In this paper, the parameters of beta Bayesian regression models subjected to linear inequality restrictions are estimated. The proposed Bayesian restricted estimator, which is demonstrated by simulated studies, outperforms ordinary estimators. Even in the presence of multicollinearity, it outperforms the ridge estimator in terms of the standard deviation and the mean squared error. The results confirm that the proposed Bayesian restricted estimator makes sparsity in parameter estimating without using the regularization penalty. Finally, a real data set is analyzed by the new proposed Bayesian estimation method.

As artificial intelligence (AI) models continue to scale up, they are becoming more capable and integrated into various forms of decision-making systems. For models involved in moral decision-making, also known as artificial moral agents (AMA), interpretability provides a way to trust and understand the agent's internal reasoning mechanisms for effective use and error correction. In this paper, we provide an overview of this rapidly-evolving sub-field of AI interpretability, introduce the concept of the Minimum Level of Interpretability (MLI) and recommend an MLI for various types of agents, to aid their safe deployment in real-world settings.

As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.