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A new unimodal distribution family indexed by the mode and three other parameters is derived from a mixture of a Gumbel distribution for the maximum and a Gumbel distribution for the minimum. Properties of the proposed distribution are explored, including model identifiability and flexibility in capturing heavy-tailed data that exhibit different directions of skewness over a wide range. Both frequentist and Bayesian methods are developed to infer parameters in the new distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate satisfactory performance of both methods. By fitting the proposed model to simulated data and data from an application in hydrology, it is shown that the proposed flexible distribution is especially suitable for data containing extreme values in either direction, with the mode being a location parameter of interest. A regression model concerning the mode of a response given covariates based on the proposed unimodal distribution can be easily formulated, which we apply to data from an application in criminology to reveal interesting data features that are obscured by outliers.

Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where $\Lop\Lo/N^\alpha$ is positive definite in the limit when $\alpha=1$, early work established convergence of the principal component estimates of the factors and loadings up to a rotation matrix. This paper shows that the estimates are still consistent and asymptotically normal when $\alpha\in(0,1]$ albeit at slower rates and under additional assumptions on the sample size. The results hold whether $\alpha$ is constant or varies across factors. The framework developed for heterogeneous loadings and the simplified proofs that can be also used in strong analysis are of independent interest

Accurate speed estimation of road vehicles is important for several reasons. One is speed limit enforcement, which represents a crucial tool in decreasing traffic accidents and fatalities. Compared with other research areas and domains, the number of available datasets for vehicle speed estimation is still very limited. We present a dataset of on-road audio-video recordings of single vehicles passing by a camera at known speeds, maintained stable by the on-board cruise control. The dataset contains thirteen vehicles, selected to be as diverse as possible in terms of manufacturer, production year, engine type, power and transmission, resulting in a total of $ 400 $ annotated audio-video recordings. The dataset is fully available and intended as a public benchmark to facilitate research in audio-video vehicle speed estimation. In addition to the dataset, we propose a cross-validation strategy which can be used in a machine learning model for vehicle speed estimation. Two approaches to training-validation split of the dataset are proposed.

We consider the problem of reconstructing the signal and the hidden variables from observations coming from a multi-layer network with rotationally invariant weight matrices. The multi-layer structure models inference from deep generative priors, and the rotational invariance imposed on the weights generalizes the i.i.d.\ Gaussian assumption by allowing for a complex correlation structure, which is typical in applications. In this work, we present a new class of approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms and give a state evolution recursion which precisely characterizes their performance in the large system limit. In contrast with the existing multi-layer VAMP (ML-VAMP) approach, our proposed AMP -- dubbed multi-layer rotationally invariant generalized AMP (ML-RI-GAMP) -- provides a natural generalization beyond Gaussian designs, in the sense that it recovers the existing Gaussian AMP as a special case. Furthermore, ML-RI-GAMP exhibits a significantly lower complexity than ML-VAMP, as the computationally intensive singular value decomposition is replaced by an estimation of the moments of the design matrices. Finally, our numerical results show that this complexity gain comes at little to no cost in the performance of the algorithm.

We are interested in estimating the uncertainties of deep neural networks, which play an important role in many scientific and engineering problems. In this paper, we present a striking new finding that an ensemble of neural networks with the same weight initialization, trained on datasets that are shifted by a constant bias gives rise to slightly inconsistent trained models, where the differences in predictions are a strong indicator of epistemic uncertainties. Using the neural tangent kernel (NTK), we demonstrate that this phenomena occurs in part because the NTK is not shift-invariant. Since this is achieved via a trivial input transformation, we show that this behavior can therefore be approximated by training a single neural network -- using a technique that we call $\Delta-$UQ -- that estimates uncertainty around prediction by marginalizing out the effect of the biases during inference. We show that $\Delta-$UQ's uncertainty estimates are superior to many of the current methods on a variety of benchmarks -- outlier rejection, calibration under distribution shift, and sequential design optimization of black box functions. Code for $\Delta-$UQ can be accessed at //github.com/LLNL/DeltaUQ

A typical desideratum for quantifying the uncertainty from a classification model as a prediction set is class-conditional singleton set calibration. That is, such sets should map to the output of well-calibrated selective classifiers, matching the observed frequencies of similar instances. Recent works proposing adaptive and localized conformal p-values for deep networks do not guarantee this behavior, nor do they achieve it empirically. Instead, we use the strong signals for prediction reliability from KNN-based approximations of Transformer networks to construct data-driven partitions for Mondrian Conformal Predictors, which are treated as weak selective classifiers that are then calibrated via a new Inductive Venn Predictor, the Venn-ADMIT Predictor. The resulting selective classifiers are well-calibrated, in a conservative but practically useful sense for a given threshold. They are inherently robust to changes in the proportions of the data partitions, and straightforward conservative heuristics provide additional robustness to covariate shifts. We compare and contrast to the quantities produced by recent Conformal Predictors on several representative and challenging natural language processing classification tasks, including class-imbalanced and distribution-shifted settings.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

Human pose estimation aims to locate the human body parts and build human body representation (e.g., body skeleton) from input data such as images and videos. It has drawn increasing attention during the past decade and has been utilized in a wide range of applications including human-computer interaction, motion analysis, augmented reality, and virtual reality. Although the recently developed deep learning-based solutions have achieved high performance in human pose estimation, there still remain challenges due to insufficient training data, depth ambiguities, and occlusions. The goal of this survey paper is to provide a comprehensive review of recent deep learning-based solutions for both 2D and 3D pose estimation via a systematic analysis and comparison of these solutions based on their input data and inference procedures. More than 240 research papers since 2014 are covered in this survey. Furthermore, 2D and 3D human pose estimation datasets and evaluation metrics are included. Quantitative performance comparisons of the reviewed methods on popular datasets are summarized and discussed. Finally, the challenges involved, applications, and future research directions are concluded. We also provide a regularly updated project page on: \url{//github.com/zczcwh/DL-HPE}