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Mediation analysis assesses the extent to which the exposure affects the outcome indirectly through a mediator and the extent to which it operates directly through other pathways. As the most popular method in empirical mediation analysis, the Baron-Kenny approach estimates the indirect and direct effects of the exposure on the outcome based on linear structural equation models. However, when the exposure and the mediator are not randomized, the estimates may be biased due to unmeasured confounding among the exposure, mediator, and outcome. Building on Cinelli and Hazlett (2020), we derive general omitted-variable bias formulas in linear regressions with vector responses and regressors. We then use the formulas to develop a sensitivity analysis method for the Baron-Kenny approach to mediation in the presence of unmeasured confounding. To ensure interpretability, we express the sensitivity parameters to correspond to the natural factorization of the joint distribution of the direct acyclic graph for mediation analysis. They measure the partial correlation between the unmeasured confounder and the exposure, mediator, outcome, respectively. With the sensitivity parameters, we propose a novel measure called the "robustness value for mediation" or simply the "robustness value", to assess the robustness of results based on the Baron-Kenny approach with respect to unmeasured confounding. Intuitively, the robustness value measures the minimum value of the maximum proportion of variability explained by the unmeasured confounding, for the exposure, mediator and outcome, to overturn the results of the point estimate or confidence interval for the direct and indirect effects. Importantly, we prove that all our sensitivity bounds are attainable and thus sharp.

Smoothers are algorithms for Bayesian time series re-analysis. Most operational smoothers rely either on affine Kalman-type transformations or on sequential importance sampling. These strategies occupy opposite ends of a spectrum that trades computational efficiency and scalability for statistical generality and consistency: non-Gaussianity renders affine Kalman updates inconsistent with the true Bayesian solution, while the ensemble size required for successful importance sampling can be prohibitive. This paper revisits the smoothing problem from the perspective of measure transport, which offers the prospect of consistent prior-to-posterior transformations for Bayesian inference. We leverage this capacity by proposing a general ensemble framework for transport-based smoothing. Within this framework, we derive a comprehensive set of smoothing recursions based on nonlinear transport maps and detail how they exploit the structure of state-space models in fully non-Gaussian settings. We also describe how many standard Kalman-type smoothing algorithms emerge as special cases of our framework. A companion paper (Ramgraber et al., 2023) explores the implementation of nonlinear ensemble transport smoothers in greater depth.

As training artificial intelligence (AI) models is a lengthy and hence costly process, leakage of such a model's internal parameters is highly undesirable. In the case of AI accelerators, side-channel information leakage opens up the threat scenario of extracting the internal secrets of pre-trained models. Therefore, sufficiently elaborate methods for design verification as well as fault and security evaluation at the electronic system level are in demand. In this paper, we propose estimating information leakage from the early design steps of AI accelerators to aid in a more robust architectural design. We first introduce the threat scenario before diving into SystemC as a standard method for early design evaluation and how this can be applied to threat modeling. We present two successful side-channel attack methods executed via SystemC-based power modeling: correlation power analysis and template attack, both leading to total information leakage. The presented models are verified against an industry-standard netlist-level power estimation to prove general feasibility and determine accuracy. Consequently, we explore the impact of additive noise in our simulation to establish indicators for early threat evaluation. The presented approach is again validated via a model-vs-netlist comparison, showing high accuracy of the achieved results. This work hence is a solid step towards fast attack deployment and, subsequently, the design of attack-resilient AI accelerators.

Within the multimodal field, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have made significant progress due to their strong perception and reasoning capabilities in the visual and language systems. However, LVLMs are still plagued by the two critical issues of object hallucination and factual accuracy, which limit the practicality of LVLMs in different scenarios. Furthermore, previous evaluation methods focus more on the comprehension and reasoning of language content but lack a comprehensive evaluation of multimodal interactions, thereby resulting in potential limitations. To this end, we propose a novel KNVQA-Eval, which is devoted to knowledge-based VQA task evaluation to reflect the factuality of multimodal LVLMs. To ensure the robustness and scalability of the evaluation, we develop a new KNVQA dataset by incorporating human judgment and perception, aiming to evaluate the accuracy of standard answers relative to AI-generated answers in knowledge-based VQA. This work not only comprehensively evaluates the contextual information of LVLMs using reliable human annotations, but also further analyzes the fine-grained capabilities of current methods to reveal potential avenues for subsequent optimization of LVLMs-based estimators. Our proposed VQA-Eval and corresponding dataset KNVQA will facilitate the development of automatic evaluation tools with the advantages of low cost, privacy protection, and reproducibility. Our code will be released upon publication.

Spatial and intensity normalization are nowadays a prerequisite for neuroimaging analysis. Influenced by voxel-wise and other univariate comparisons, where these corrections are key, they are commonly applied to any type of analysis and imaging modalities. Nuclear imaging modalities such as PET-FDG or FP-CIT SPECT, a common modality used in Parkinson's Disease diagnosis, are especially dependent on intensity normalization. However, these steps are computationally expensive and furthermore, they may introduce deformations in the images, altering the information contained in them. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), for their part, introduce position invariance to pattern recognition, and have been proven to classify objects regardless of their orientation, size, angle, etc. Therefore, a question arises: how well can CNNs account for spatial and intensity differences when analysing nuclear brain imaging? Are spatial and intensity normalization still needed? To answer this question, we have trained four different CNN models based on well-established architectures, using or not different spatial and intensity normalization preprocessing. The results show that a sufficiently complex model such as our three-dimensional version of the ALEXNET can effectively account for spatial differences, achieving a diagnosis accuracy of 94.1% with an area under the ROC curve of 0.984. The visualization of the differences via saliency maps shows that these models are correctly finding patterns that match those found in the literature, without the need of applying any complex spatial normalization procedure. However, the intensity normalization -- and its type -- is revealed as very influential in the results and accuracy of the trained model, and therefore must be well accounted.

Model extraction attacks are designed to steal trained models with only query access, as is often provided through APIs that ML-as-a-Service providers offer. ML models are expensive to train, in part because data is hard to obtain, and a primary incentive for model extraction is to acquire a model while incurring less cost than training from scratch. Literature on model extraction commonly claims or presumes that the attacker is able to save on both data acquisition and labeling costs. We show that the attacker often does not. This is because current attacks implicitly rely on the adversary being able to sample from the victim model's data distribution. We thoroughly evaluate factors influencing the success of model extraction. We discover that prior knowledge of the attacker, i.e. access to in-distribution data, dominates other factors like the attack policy the adversary follows to choose which queries to make to the victim model API. Thus, an adversary looking to develop an equally capable model with a fixed budget has little practical incentive to perform model extraction, since for the attack to work they need to collect in-distribution data, saving only on the cost of labeling. With low labeling costs in the current market, the usefulness of such attacks is questionable. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the effect of prior knowledge needs to be explicitly decoupled from the attack policy. To this end, we propose a benchmark to evaluate attack policy directly.

Incorporating prior knowledge into pre-trained language models has proven to be effective for knowledge-driven NLP tasks, such as entity typing and relation extraction. Current pre-training procedures usually inject external knowledge into models by using knowledge masking, knowledge fusion and knowledge replacement. However, factual information contained in the input sentences have not been fully mined, and the external knowledge for injecting have not been strictly checked. As a result, the context information cannot be fully exploited and extra noise will be introduced or the amount of knowledge injected is limited. To address these issues, we propose MLRIP, which modifies the knowledge masking strategies proposed by ERNIE-Baidu, and introduce a two-stage entity replacement strategy. Extensive experiments with comprehensive analyses illustrate the superiority of MLRIP over BERT-based models in military knowledge-driven NLP tasks.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Language model pre-training has proven to be useful in learning universal language representations. As a state-of-the-art language model pre-training model, BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) has achieved amazing results in many language understanding tasks. In this paper, we conduct exhaustive experiments to investigate different fine-tuning methods of BERT on text classification task and provide a general solution for BERT fine-tuning. Finally, the proposed solution obtains new state-of-the-art results on eight widely-studied text classification datasets.

Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.