亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

Frequent and intensive disasters make the repeated and uncertain post-disaster recovery process. Despite the importance of the successful recovery process, previous simulation studies on the post-disaster recovery process did not explore the sufficient number of household return decision model types, population sizes, and the corresponding critical transition conditions of the system. This paper simulates the recovery process in the agent-based model with multilayer networks to reveal the impact of household return decision model types and population sizes in a toy network. After that, this paper applies the agent-based model to the five selected counties affected by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 to check the urban-rural recovery differences by types of household return decision models. The agent-based model yields three conclusions. First, the threshold model can successfully substitute the binary logit model. Second, high thresholds and less than 1,000 populations perturb the recovery process, yielding critical transitions during the recovery process. Third, this study checks the urban-rural recovery value differences by different decision model types. This study highlights the importance of the threshold models and population sizes to check the critical transitions and urban-rural differences in the recovery process.

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals which allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is small relative to the sample size; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals and investigate an alternative procedure that improves the empirical coverage of the intervals when the amount of unobserved confounding is large. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform a sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding.

We consider scalar semilinear elliptic PDEs, where the nonlinearity is strongly monotone, but only locally Lipschitz continuous. To linearize the arising discrete nonlinear problem, we employ a damped Zarantonello iteration, which leads to a linear Poisson-type equation that is symmetric and positive definite. The resulting system is solved by a contractive algebraic solver such as a multigrid method with local smoothing. We formulate a fully adaptive algorithm that equibalances the various error components coming from mesh refinement, iterative linearization, and algebraic solver. We prove that the proposed adaptive iteratively linearized finite element method (AILFEM) guarantees convergence with optimal complexity, where the rates are understood with respect to the overall computational cost (i.e., the computational time). Numerical experiments investigate the involved adaptivity parameters.

Characterizing the solution sets in a problem by closedness under operations is recognized as one of the key aspects of algorithm development, especially in constraint satisfaction. An example from the Boolean satisfiability problem is that the solution set of a Horn conjunctive normal form (CNF) is closed under the minimum operation, and this property implies that minimizing a nonnegative linear function over a Horn CNF can be done in polynomial time. In this paper, we focus on the set of integer points (vectors) in a polyhedron, and study the relation between these sets and closedness under operations from the viewpoint of 2-decomposability. By adding further conditions to the 2-decomposable polyhedra, we show that important classes of sets of integer vectors in polyhedra are characterized by 2-decomposability and closedness under certain operations, and in some classes, by closedness under operations alone. The most prominent result we show is that the set of integer vectors in a unit-two-variable-per-inequality polyhedron can be characterized by closedness under the median and directed discrete midpoint operations, each of these operations was independently considered in constraint satisfaction and discrete convex analysis.

Building robust, interpretable, and secure AI system requires quantifying and representing uncertainty under a probabilistic perspective to mimic human cognitive abilities. However, probabilistic computation presents significant challenges for most conventional artificial neural network, as they are essentially implemented in a deterministic manner. In this paper, we develop an efficient probabilistic computation framework by truncating the probabilistic representation of neural activation up to its mean and covariance and construct a moment neural network that encapsulates the nonlinear coupling between the mean and covariance of the underlying stochastic network. We reveal that when only the mean but not the covariance is supervised during gradient-based learning, the unsupervised covariance spontaneously emerges from its nonlinear coupling with the mean and faithfully captures the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Our findings highlight the inherent simplicity of probabilistic computation by seamlessly incorporating uncertainty into model prediction, paving the way for integrating it into large-scale AI systems.

Nurmuhammad et al. developed the Sinc-Nystr\"{o}m methods for initial value problems in which the solutions exhibit exponential decay end behavior. In these methods, the Single-Exponential (SE) transformation or the Double-Exponential (DE) transformation is combined with the Sinc approximation. Hara and Okayama improved on these transformations to attain a better convergence rate, which was later supported by theoretical error analyses. However, these methods have a computational drawback owing to the inclusion of a special function in the basis functions. To address this issue, Okayama and Hara proposed Sinc-collocation methods, which do not include any special function in the basis functions. This study conducts error analyses of these methods.

Spatial regression models are central to the field of spatial statistics. Nevertheless, their estimation in case of large and irregular gridded spatial datasets presents considerable computational challenges. To tackle these computational problems, Arbia \citep{arbia_2014_pairwise} introduced a pseudo-likelihood approach (called pairwise likelihood, say PL) which required the identification of pairs of observations that are internally correlated, but mutually conditionally uncorrelated. However, while the PL estimators enjoy optimal theoretical properties, their practical implementation when dealing with data observed on irregular grids suffers from dramatic computational issues (connected with the identification of the pairs of observations) that, in most empirical cases, negatively counter-balance its advantages. In this paper we introduce an algorithm specifically designed to streamline the computation of the PL in large and irregularly gridded spatial datasets, dramatically simplifying the estimation phase. In particular, we focus on the estimation of Spatial Error models (SEM). Our proposed approach, efficiently pairs spatial couples exploiting the KD tree data structure and exploits it to derive the closed-form expressions for fast parameter approximation. To showcase the efficiency of our method, we provide an illustrative example using simulated data, demonstrating the computational advantages if compared to a full likelihood inference are not at the expenses of accuracy.

In recent years a great deal of attention has been paid to discretizations of the incompressible Stokes equations that exactly preserve the incompressibility constraint. These are of substantial interest because these discretizations are pressure-robust, i.e. the error estimates for the velocity do not depend on the error in the pressure. Similar considerations arise in nearly incompressible linear elastic solids. Conforming discretizations with this property are now well understood in two dimensions, but remain poorly understood in three dimensions. In this work we state two conjectures on this subject. The first is that the Scott-Vogelius element pair is inf-sup stable on uniform meshes for velocity degree $k \ge 4$; the best result available in the literature is for $k \ge 6$. The second is that there exists a stable space decomposition of the kernel of the divergence for $k \ge 5$. We present numerical evidence supporting our conjectures.

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to medical decision making. However, evaluating predictive performance of interventional predictions is challenging. Standard ways of evaluating predictive performance do not apply when using observational data, because prediction under interventions involves obtaining predictions of the outcome under conditions that are different to those that are observed for a subset of individuals in the validation dataset. This work describes methods for evaluating counterfactual performance of predictions under interventions for time-to-event outcomes. This means we aim to assess how well predictions would match the validation data if all individuals had followed the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We focus on counterfactual performance evaluation using longitudinal observational data, and under treatment strategies that involve sustaining a particular treatment regime over time. We introduce an estimation approach using artificial censoring and inverse probability weighting which involves creating a validation dataset that mimics the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We extend measures of calibration, discrimination (c-index and cumulative/dynamic AUCt) and overall prediction error (Brier score) to allow assessment of counterfactual performance. The methods are evaluated using a simulation study, including scenarios in which the methods should detect poor performance. Applying our methods in the context of liver transplantation shows that our procedure allows quantification of the performance of predictions supporting crucial decisions on organ allocation.

This paper proposes a new approach to fit a linear regression for symbolic internal-valued variables, which improves both the Center Method suggested by Billard and Diday in \cite{BillardDiday2000} and the Center and Range Method suggested by Lima-Neto, E.A. and De Carvalho, F.A.T. in \cite{Lima2008, Lima2010}. Just in the Centers Method and the Center and Range Method, the new methods proposed fit the linear regression model on the midpoints and in the half of the length of the intervals as an additional variable (ranges) assumed by the predictor variables in the training data set, but to make these fitments in the regression models, the methods Ridge Regression, Lasso, and Elastic Net proposed by Tibshirani, R. Hastie, T., and Zou H in \cite{Tib1996, HastieZou2005} are used. The prediction of the lower and upper of the interval response (dependent) variable is carried out from their midpoints and ranges, which are estimated from the linear regression models with shrinkage generated in the midpoints and the ranges of the interval-valued predictors. Methods presented in this document are applied to three real data sets cardiologic interval data set, Prostate interval data set and US Murder interval data set to then compare their performance and facility of interpretation regarding the Center Method and the Center and Range Method. For this evaluation, the root-mean-squared error and the correlation coefficient are used. Besides, the reader may use all the methods presented herein and verify the results using the {\tt RSDA} package written in {\tt R} language, that can be downloaded and installed directly from {\tt CRAN} \cite{Rod2014}.