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We propose a new method for multivariate response regression and covariance estimation when elements of the response vector are of mixed types, for example some continuous and some discrete. Our method is based on a model which assumes the observable mixed-type response vector is connected to a latent multivariate normal response linear regression through a link function. We explore the properties of this model and show its parameters are identifiable under reasonable conditions. We impose no parametric restrictions on the covariance of the latent normal other than positive definiteness, thereby avoiding assumptions about unobservable variables which can be difficult to verify in practice. To accommodate this generality, we propose a novel algorithm for approximate maximum likelihood estimation that works "off-the-shelf" with many different combinations of response types, and which scales well in the dimension of the response vector. Our method typically gives better predictions and parameter estimates than fitting separate models for the different response types and allows for approximate likelihood ratio testing of relevant hypotheses such as independence of responses. The usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated in simulations; and one biomedical and one genomic data example.

We propose a theoretical framework for the problem of learning a real-valued function which meets fairness requirements. This framework is built upon the notion of $\alpha$-relative (fairness) improvement of the regression function which we introduce using the theory of optimal transport. Setting $\alpha = 0$ corresponds to the regression problem under the Demographic Parity constraint, while $\alpha = 1$ corresponds to the classical regression problem without any constraints. For $\alpha \in (0, 1)$ the proposed framework allows to continuously interpolate between these two extreme cases and to study partially fair predictors. Within this framework we precisely quantify the cost in risk induced by the introduction of the fairness constraint. We put forward a statistical minimax setup and derive a general problem-dependent lower bound on the risk of any estimator satisfying $\alpha$-relative improvement constraint. We illustrate our framework on a model of linear regression with Gaussian design and systematic group-dependent bias, deriving matching (up to absolute constants) upper and lower bounds on the minimax risk under the introduced constraint. We provide a general post-processing strategy which enjoys fairness, risk guarantees and can be applied on top of any black-box algorithm. Finally, we perform a simulation study of the linear model and numerical experiments of benchmark data, validating our theoretical contributions.

Regression methods for interval-valued data have been increasingly studied in recent years. As most of the existing works focus on linear models, it is important to note that many problems in practice are nonlinear in nature and therefore development of nonlinear regression tools for interval-valued data is crucial. In this paper, we propose a tree-based regression method for interval-valued data, which is well applicable to both linear and nonlinear problems. Unlike linear regression models that usually require additional constraints to ensure positivity of the predicted interval length, the proposed method estimates the regression function in a nonparametric way, so the predicted length is naturally positive without any constraints. A simulation study is conducted that compares our method to popular existing regression models for interval-valued data under both linear and nonlinear settings. Furthermore, a real data example is presented where we apply our method to analyze price range data of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index and its component stocks.

This paper focuses on stochastic saddle point problems with decision-dependent distributions in both the static and time-varying settings. These are problems whose objective is the expected value of a stochastic payoff function, where random variables are drawn from a distribution induced by a distributional map. For general distributional maps, the problem of finding saddle points is in general computationally burdensome, even if the distribution is known. To enable a tractable solution approach, we introduce the notion of equilibrium points -- which are saddle points for the stationary stochastic minimax problem that they induce -- and provide conditions for their existence and uniqueness. We demonstrate that the distance between the two classes of solutions is bounded provided that the objective has a strongly-convex-strongly-concave payoff and Lipschitz continuous distributional map. We develop deterministic and stochastic primal-dual algorithms and demonstrate their convergence to the equilibrium point. In particular, by modeling errors emerging from a stochastic gradient estimator as sub-Weibull random variables, we provide error bounds in expectation and in high probability that hold for each iteration; moreover, we show convergence to a neighborhood in expectation and almost surely. Finally, we investigate a condition on the distributional map -- which we call opposing mixture dominance -- that ensures the objective is strongly-convex-strongly-concave. Under this assumption, we show that primal-dual algorithms converge to the saddle points in a similar fashion.

Continual learning in environments with shifting data distributions is a challenging problem with several real-world applications. In this paper we consider settings in which the data distribution(task) shifts abruptly and the timing of these shifts are not known. Furthermore, we consider a semi-supervised task-agnostic setting in which the learning algorithm has access to both task-segmented and unsegmented data for offline training. We propose a novel approach called mixture of Basismodels (MoB) for addressing this problem setting. The core idea is to learn a small set of basis models and to construct a dynamic, task-dependent mixture of the models to predict for the current task. We also propose a new methodology to detect observations that are out-of-distribution with respect to the existing basis models and to instantiate new models as needed. We test our approach in multiple domains and show that it attains better prediction error than existing methods in most cases while using fewer models than other multiple model approaches. Moreover, we analyze the latent task representations learned by MoB and show that similar tasks tend to cluster in the latent space and that the latent representation shifts at the task boundaries when tasks are dissimilar.

In this paper, we show that the diagonal of a high-dimensional sample covariance matrix stemming from $n$ independent observations of a $p$-dimensional time series with finite fourth moments can be approximated in spectral norm by the diagonal of the population covariance matrix. We assume that $n,p\to \infty$ with $p/n$ tending to a constant which might be positive or zero. As applications, we provide an approximation of the sample correlation matrix ${\mathbf R}$ and derive a variety of results for its eigenvalues. We identify the limiting spectral distribution of ${\mathbf R}$ and construct an estimator for the population correlation matrix and its eigenvalues. Finally, the almost sure limits of the extreme eigenvalues of ${\mathbf R}$ in a generalized spiked correlation model are analyzed.

A Gaussian process (GP) is a powerful and widely used regression technique. The main building block of a GP regression is the covariance kernel, which characterizes the relationship between pairs in the random field. The optimization to find the optimal kernel, however, requires several large-scale and often unstructured matrix inversions. We tackle this challenge by introducing a hierarchical matrix approach, named HMAT, which effectively decomposes the matrix structure, in a recursive manner, into significantly smaller matrices where a direct approach could be used for inversion. Our matrix partitioning uses a particular aggregation strategy for data points, which promotes the low-rank structure of off-diagonal blocks in the hierarchical kernel matrix. We employ a randomized linear algebra method for matrix reduction on the low-rank off-diagonal blocks without factorizing a large matrix. We provide analytical error and cost estimates for the inversion of the matrix, investigate them empirically with numerical computations, and demonstrate the application of our approach on three numerical examples involving GP regression for engineering problems and a large-scale real dataset. We provide the computer implementation of GP-HMAT, HMAT adapted for GP likelihood and derivative computations, and the implementation of the last numerical example on a real dataset. We demonstrate superior scalability of the HMAT approach compared to built-in $\backslash$ operator in MATLAB for large-scale linear solves $\bf{A}\bf{x} = \bf{y}$ via a repeatable and verifiable empirical study. An extension to hierarchical semiseparable (HSS) matrices is discussed as future research.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.