Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has gained popularity as a method for conducting inference and forecasting in complex models, most notably those which are intractable in some sense. In this paper we use ABC to produce probabilistic forecasts in state space models (SSMs). Whilst ABC-based forecasting in correctly-specified SSMs has been studied, the misspecified case has not been investigated, and it is that case which we emphasize. We invoke recent principles of 'focused' Bayesian prediction, whereby Bayesian updates are driven by a scoring rule that rewards predictive accuracy; the aim being to produce predictives that perform well in that rule, despite misspecification. Two methods are investigated for producing the focused predictions. In a simulation setting, 'coherent' predictions are in evidence for both methods: the predictive constructed via the use of a particular scoring rule predicts best according to that rule. Importantly, both focused methods typically produce more accurate forecasts than an exact, but misspecified, predictive. An empirical application to a truly intractable SSM completes the paper.
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Generative Models (GMs) have attracted considerable attention due to their tremendous success in various domains, such as computer vision where they are capable to generate impressive realistic-looking images. Likelihood-based GMs are attractive due to the possibility to generate new data by a single model evaluation. However, they typically achieve lower sample quality compared to state-of-the-art score-based diffusion models (DMs). This paper provides a significant step in the direction of addressing this limitation. The idea is to borrow one of the strengths of score-based DMs, which is the ability to perform accurate density estimation in low-density regions and to address manifold overfitting by means of data mollification. We connect data mollification through the addition of Gaussian noise to Gaussian homotopy, which is a well-known technique to improve optimization. Data mollification can be implemented by adding one line of code in the optimization loop, and we demonstrate that this provides a boost in generation quality of likelihood-based GMs, without computational overheads. We report results on image data sets with popular likelihood-based GMs, including variants of variational autoencoders and normalizing flows, showing large improvements in FID score.
Uncertainty estimation is a key issue when considering the application of deep neural network methods in science and engineering. In this work, we introduce a novel algorithm that quantifies epistemic uncertainty via Monte Carlo sampling from a tempered posterior distribution. It combines the well established Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) with momentum-based optimization using Adam and leverages a prolate proposal distribution, to efficiently draw from the posterior. We prove that the constructed chain admits the Gibbs posterior as an invariant distribution and converges to this Gibbs posterior in total variation distance. Numerical evaluations are postponed to a first revision.
Efficient derandomization has long been a goal in complexity theory, and a major recent result by Yanyi Liu and Rafael Pass identifies a new class of hardness assumption under which it is possible to perform time-bounded derandomization efficiently: that of ''leakage-resilient hardness.'' They identify a specific form of this assumption which is $\textit{equivalent}$ to $\mathsf{prP} = \mathsf{prBPP}$. In this paper, we pursue a an equivalence to derandomization of $\mathsf{prBP{\cdot}L}$ (logspace promise problems with two-way randomness) through techniques analogous to Liu and Pass. We are able to obtain an equivalence between a similar ''leakage-resilient hardness'' assumption and a slightly stronger statement than derandomization of $\mathsf{prBP{\cdot}L}$, that of finding ''non-no'' instances of ''promise search problems.''
The field of explainable artificial intelligence emerged in response to the growing need for more transparent and reliable models. However, using raw features to provide explanations has been disputed in several works lately, advocating for more user-understandable explanations. To address this issue, a wide range of papers proposing Concept-based eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (C-XAI) methods have arisen in recent years. Nevertheless, a unified categorization and precise field definition are still missing. This paper fills the gap by offering a thorough review of C-XAI approaches. We define and identify different concepts and explanation types. We provide a taxonomy identifying nine categories and propose guidelines for selecting a suitable category based on the development context. Additionally, we report common evaluation strategies including metrics, human evaluations and dataset employed, aiming to assist the development of future methods. We believe this survey will serve researchers, practitioners, and domain experts in comprehending and advancing this innovative field.
Deep learning models are known to suffer from the problem of bias, and researchers have been exploring methods to address this issue. However, most of these methods require prior knowledge of the bias and are not always practical. In this paper, we focus on a more practical setting with no prior information about the bias. Generally, in this setting, there are a large number of bias-aligned samples that cause the model to produce biased predictions and a few bias-conflicting samples that do not conform to the bias. If the training data is limited, the influence of the bias-aligned samples may become even stronger on the model predictions, and we experimentally demonstrate that existing debiasing techniques suffer severely in such cases. In this paper, we examine the effects of unknown bias in small dataset regimes and present a novel approach to mitigate this issue. The proposed approach directly addresses the issue of the extremely low occurrence of bias-conflicting samples in limited data settings through the synthesis of hybrid samples that can be used to reduce the effect of bias. We perform extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets and experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in addressing any unknown bias in the presence of limited data. Specifically, our approach outperforms the vanilla, LfF, LDD, and DebiAN debiasing methods by absolute margins of 10.39%, 9.08%, 8.07%, and 9.67% when only 10% of the Corrupted CIFAR-10 Type 1 dataset is available with a bias-conflicting sample ratio of 0.05.
Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.
Due to their inherent capability in semantic alignment of aspects and their context words, attention mechanism and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are widely applied for aspect-based sentiment classification. However, these models lack a mechanism to account for relevant syntactical constraints and long-range word dependencies, and hence may mistakenly recognize syntactically irrelevant contextual words as clues for judging aspect sentiment. To tackle this problem, we propose to build a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) over the dependency tree of a sentence to exploit syntactical information and word dependencies. Based on it, a novel aspect-specific sentiment classification framework is raised. Experiments on three benchmarking collections illustrate that our proposed model has comparable effectiveness to a range of state-of-the-art models, and further demonstrate that both syntactical information and long-range word dependencies are properly captured by the graph convolution structure.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
Recently, ensemble has been applied to deep metric learning to yield state-of-the-art results. Deep metric learning aims to learn deep neural networks for feature embeddings, distances of which satisfy given constraint. In deep metric learning, ensemble takes average of distances learned by multiple learners. As one important aspect of ensemble, the learners should be diverse in their feature embeddings. To this end, we propose an attention-based ensemble, which uses multiple attention masks, so that each learner can attend to different parts of the object. We also propose a divergence loss, which encourages diversity among the learners. The proposed method is applied to the standard benchmarks of deep metric learning and experimental results show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin on image retrieval tasks.
Attention mechanism has been used as an ancillary means to help RNN or CNN. However, the Transformer (Vaswani et al., 2017) recently recorded the state-of-the-art performance in machine translation with a dramatic reduction in training time by solely using attention. Motivated by the Transformer, Directional Self Attention Network (Shen et al., 2017), a fully attention-based sentence encoder, was proposed. It showed good performance with various data by using forward and backward directional information in a sentence. But in their study, not considered at all was the distance between words, an important feature when learning the local dependency to help understand the context of input text. We propose Distance-based Self-Attention Network, which considers the word distance by using a simple distance mask in order to model the local dependency without losing the ability of modeling global dependency which attention has inherent. Our model shows good performance with NLI data, and it records the new state-of-the-art result with SNLI data. Additionally, we show that our model has a strength in long sentences or documents.
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