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This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each time point switches between two regimes, labeled as upward market and downward market states. The disturbance term of the error process is also allowed to switch between two distributions depending on the regime. It is assumed that a self-adjusting threshold component that is driven by the past values of the time series determines the current market regime. The proposed model is able to capture aspects such as asymmetric and heteroscedastic behavior of volatility in financial markets. The proposed model is an attempt at addressing several potential deficits found in existing price range models such as the Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR), Asymmetric CARR (ACARR), Feedback ACARR (FACARR) and Threshold Autoregressive Range (TARR) models. Parameters of the model are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method. A simulation study shows that the ML method performs well in estimating the TACARR model parameters. The empirical performance of the TACARR model was investigated using IBM index data and results show that the proposed model is a good alternative for in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting of volatility. Key Words: Volatility Modeling, Asymmetric Volatility, CARR Models, Regime Switching.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 可辨認的 · 均方誤差 · 講稿 · 得分 ·
2022 年 4 月 20 日

Complaining is a speech act that expresses a negative inconsistency between reality and human expectations. While prior studies mostly focus on identifying the existence or the type of complaints, in this work, we present the first study in computational linguistics of measuring the intensity of complaints from text. Analyzing complaints from such perspective is particularly useful, as complaints of certain degrees may cause severe consequences for companies or organizations. We create the first Chinese dataset containing 3,103 posts about complaints from Weibo, a popular Chinese social media platform. These posts are then annotated with complaints intensity scores using Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) method. We show that complaints intensity can be accurately estimated by computational models with the best mean square error achieving 0.11. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive linguistic analysis around complaints, including the connections between complaints and sentiment, and a cross-lingual comparison for complaints expressions used by Chinese and English speakers. We finally show that our complaints intensity scores can be incorporated for better estimating the popularity of posts on social media.

Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) rely on insecure protocols and devices to monitor and operate critical infrastructure. Prior work has demonstrated that powerful attackers with detailed system knowledge can manipulate exchanged sensor data to deteriorate performance of the process, even leading to full shutdowns of plants. Identifying those attacks requires iterating over all possible sensor values, and running detailed system simulation or analysis to identify optimal attacks. That setup allows adversaries to identify attacks that are most impactful when applied on the system for the first time, before the system operators become aware of the manipulations. In this work, we investigate if constrained attackers without detailed system knowledge and simulators can identify comparable attacks. In particular, the attacker only requires abstract knowledge on general information flow in the plant, instead of precise algorithms, operating parameters, process models, or simulators. We propose an approach that allows single-shot attacks, i.e., near-optimal attacks that are reliably shutting down a system on the first try. The approach is applied and validated on two use cases, and demonstrated to achieve comparable results to prior work, which relied on detailed system information and simulations.

Developing controllers for obstacle avoidance between polytopes is a challenging and necessary problem for navigation in tight spaces. Traditional approaches can only formulate the obstacle avoidance problem as an offline optimization problem. To address these challenges, we propose a duality-based safety-critical optimal control using nonsmooth control barrier functions for obstacle avoidance between polytopes, which can be solved in real-time with a QP-based optimization problem. A dual optimization problem is introduced to represent the minimum distance between polytopes and the Lagrangian function for the dual form is applied to construct a control barrier function. We validate the obstacle avoidance with the proposed dual formulation for L-shaped (sofa-shaped) controlled robot in a corridor environment. We demonstrate real-time tight obstacle avoidance with non-conservative maneuvers on a moving sofa (piano) problem with nonlinear dynamics.

We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.

Split learning (SL) is a collaborative learning framework, which can train an artificial intelligence (AI) model between a device and an edge server by splitting the AI model into a device-side model and a server-side model at a cut layer. The existing SL approach conducts the training process sequentially across devices, which incurs significant training latency especially when the number of devices is large. In this paper, we design a novel SL scheme to reduce the training latency, named Cluster-based Parallel SL (CPSL) which conducts model training in a "first-parallel-then-sequential" manner. Specifically, the CPSL is to partition devices into several clusters, parallelly train device-side models in each cluster and aggregate them, and then sequentially train the whole AI model across clusters, thereby parallelizing the training process and reducing training latency. Furthermore, we propose a resource management algorithm to minimize the training latency of CPSL considering device heterogeneity and network dynamics in wireless networks. This is achieved by stochastically optimizing the cut layer selection, real-time device clustering, and radio spectrum allocation. The proposed two-timescale algorithm can jointly make the cut layer selection decision in a large timescale and device clustering and radio spectrum allocation decisions in a small timescale. Extensive simulation results on non-independent and identically distributed data demonstrate that the proposed solutions can greatly reduce the training latency as compared with the existing SL benchmarks, while adapting to network dynamics.

The four-parameter generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GBII) has been proposed for modelling insurance losses with heavy-tailed features. The aim of this paper is to present a parametric composite GBII regression modelling by splicing two GBII distributions using mode matching method. It is designed for simultaneous modeling of small and large claims and capturing the policyholder heterogeneity by introducing the covariates into the location parameter. In such cases, the threshold that splits two GBII distributions varies across individuals policyholders based on their risk features. The proposed regression modelling also contains a wide range of insurance loss distributions as the head and the tail respectively and provides the close-formed expressions for parameter estimation and model prediction. A simulation study is conducted to show the accuracy of the proposed estimation method and the flexibility of the regressions. Some illustrations of the applicability of the new class of distributions and regressions are provided with a Danish fire losses data set and a Chinese medical insurance claims data set, comparing with the results of competing models from the literature.

The best neural architecture for a given machine learning problem depends on many factors: not only the complexity and structure of the dataset, but also on resource constraints including latency, compute, energy consumption, etc. Neural architecture search (NAS) for tabular datasets is an important but under-explored problem. Previous NAS algorithms designed for image search spaces incorporate resource constraints directly into the reinforcement learning rewards. In this paper, we argue that search spaces for tabular NAS pose considerable challenges for these existing reward-shaping methods, and propose a new reinforcement learning (RL) controller to address these challenges. Motivated by rejection sampling, when we sample candidate architectures during a search, we immediately discard any architecture that violates our resource constraints. We use a Monte-Carlo-based correction to our RL policy gradient update to account for this extra filtering step. Results on several tabular datasets show TabNAS, the proposed approach, efficiently finds high-quality models that satisfy the given resource constraints.

We propose a streaming non-autoregressive (non-AR) decoding algorithm to deliberate the hypothesis alignment of a streaming RNN-T model. Our algorithm facilitates a simple greedy decoding procedure, and at the same time is capable of producing the decoding result at each frame with limited right context, thus enjoying both high efficiency and low latency. These advantages are achieved by converting the offline Align-Refine algorithm to be streaming-compatible, with a novel transformer decoder architecture that performs local self-attentions for both text and audio, and a time-aligned cross-attention at each layer. Furthermore, we perform discriminative training of our model with the minimum word error rate (MWER) criterion, which has not been done in the non-AR decoding literature. Experiments on voice search datasets and Librispeech show that with reasonable right context, our streaming model performs as well as the offline counterpart, and discriminative training leads to further WER gain when the first-pass model has small capacity.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

In 1954, Alston S. Householder published Principles of Numerical Analysis, one of the first modern treatments on matrix decomposition that favored a (block) LU decomposition-the factorization of a matrix into the product of lower and upper triangular matrices. And now, matrix decomposition has become a core technology in machine learning, largely due to the development of the back propagation algorithm in fitting a neural network. The sole aim of this survey is to give a self-contained introduction to concepts and mathematical tools in numerical linear algebra and matrix analysis in order to seamlessly introduce matrix decomposition techniques and their applications in subsequent sections. However, we clearly realize our inability to cover all the useful and interesting results concerning matrix decomposition and given the paucity of scope to present this discussion, e.g., the separated analysis of the Euclidean space, Hermitian space, Hilbert space, and things in the complex domain. We refer the reader to literature in the field of linear algebra for a more detailed introduction to the related fields.

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