We study the multiplicative hazards model with intermittently observed longitudinal covariates and time-varying coefficients. For such models, the existing {\it ad hoc} approach, such as the last value carried forward, is biased. We propose a kernel weighting approach to get an unbiased estimation of the non-parametric coefficient function and establish asymptotic normality for any fixed time point. Furthermore, we construct the simultaneous confidence band to examine the overall magnitude of the variation. Simulation studies support our theoretical predictions and show favorable performance of the proposed method. A data set from cerebral infarction is used to illustrate our methodology.
The joint modeling of multiple longitudinal biomarkers together with a time-to-event outcome is a challenging modeling task of continued scientific interest. In particular, the computational complexity of high dimensional (generalized) mixed effects models often restricts the flexibility of shared parameter joint models, even when the subject-specific marker trajectories follow highly nonlinear courses. We propose a parsimonious multivariate functional principal components representation of the shared random effects. This allows better scalability, as the dimension of the random effects does not directly increase with the number of markers, only with the chosen number of principal component basis functions used in the approximation of the random effects. The functional principal component representation additionally allows to estimate highly flexible subject-specific random trajectories without parametric assumptions. The modeled trajectories can thus be distinctly different for each biomarker. We build on the framework of flexible Bayesian additive joint models implemented in the R-package 'bamlss', which also supports estimation of nonlinear covariate effects via Bayesian P-splines. The flexible yet parsimonious functional principal components basis used in the estimation of the joint model is first estimated in a preliminary step. We validate our approach in a simulation study and illustrate its advantages by analyzing a study on primary biliary cholangitis.
We study the iterative methods for large moment systems derived from the linearized Boltzmann equation. By Fourier analysis, it is shown that the direct application of the block symmetric Gauss-Seidel (BSGS) method has slower convergence for smaller Knudsen numbers. Better convergence rates for dense flows are then achieved by coupling the BSGS method with the micro-macro decomposition, which treats the moment equations as a coupled system with a microscopic part and a macroscopic part. Since the macroscopic part contains only a small number of equations, it can be solved accurately during the iteration with a relatively small computational cost, which accelerates the overall iteration. The method is further generalized to the multiscale decomposition which splits the moment system into many subsystems with different orders of magnitude. Both one- and two-dimensional numerical tests are carried out to examine the performances of these methods. Possible issues regarding the efficiency and convergence are discussed in the conclusion.
This study examines the varying coefficient model in tail index regression. The varying coefficient model is an efficient semiparametric model that avoids the curse of dimensionality when including large covariates in the model. In fact, the varying coefficient model is useful in mean, quantile, and other regressions. The tail index regression is not an exception. However, the varying coefficient model is flexible, but leaner and simpler models are preferred for applications. Therefore, it is important to evaluate whether the estimated coefficient function varies significantly with covariates. If the effect of the non-linearity of the model is weak, the varying coefficient structure is reduced to a simpler model, such as a constant or zero. Accordingly, the hypothesis test for model assessment in the varying coefficient model has been discussed in mean and quantile regression. However, there are no results in tail index regression. In this study, we investigate the asymptotic properties of an estimator and provide a hypothesis testing method for varying coefficient models for tail index regression.
We adopt the integral definition of the fractional Laplace operator and study an optimal control problem on Lipschitz domains that involves a fractional elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) as state equation and a control variable that enters the state equation as a coefficient; pointwise constraints on the control variable are considered as well. We establish the existence of optimal solutions and analyze first and, necessary and sufficient, second order optimality conditions. Regularity estimates for optimal variables are also analyzed. We develop two finite element discretization strategies: a semidiscrete scheme in which the control variable is not discretized, and a fully discrete scheme in which the control variable is discretized with piecewise constant functions. For both schemes, we analyze the convergence properties of discretizations and derive error estimates.
This study elaborates a text-based metric to quantify the unique position of stylized scientific research, characterized by its innovative integration of diverse knowledge components and potential to pivot established scientific paradigms. Our analysis reveals a concerning decline in stylized research, highlighted by its comparative undervaluation in terms of citation counts and protracted peer-review duration. Despite facing these challenges, the disruptive potential of stylized research remains robust, consistently introducing groundbreaking questions and theories. This paper posits that substantive reforms are necessary to incentivize and recognize the value of stylized research, including optimizations to the peer-review process and the criteria for evaluating scientific impact. Embracing these changes may be imperative to halt the downturn in stylized research and ensure enduring scholarly exploration in endless frontiers.
We discuss avoidance of sure loss and coherence results for semicopulas and standardized functions, i.e., for grounded, 1-increasing functions with value $1$ at $(1,1,\ldots, 1)$. We characterize the existence of a $k$-increasing $n$-variate function $C$ fulfilling $A\leq C\leq B$ for standardized $n$-variate functions $A,B$ and discuss the method for constructing this function. Our proofs also include procedures for extending functions on some countably infinite mesh to functions on the unit box. We provide a characterization when $A$ respectively $B$ coincides with the pointwise infimum respectively supremum of the set of all $k$-increasing $n$-variate functions $C$ fulfilling $A\leq C\leq B$.
This paper considers the problem of robust iterative Bayesian smoothing in nonlinear state-space models with additive noise using Gaussian approximations. Iterative methods are known to improve smoothed estimates but are not guaranteed to converge, motivating the development of more robust versions of the algorithms. The aim of this article is to present Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) and line-search extensions of the classical iterated extended Kalman smoother (IEKS) as well as the iterated posterior linearisation smoother (IPLS). The IEKS has previously been shown to be equivalent to the Gauss-Newton (GN) method. We derive a similar GN interpretation for the IPLS. Furthermore, we show that an LM extension for both iterative methods can be achieved with a simple modification of the smoothing iterations, enabling algorithms with efficient implementations. Our numerical experiments show the importance of robust methods, in particular for the IEKS-based smoothers. The computationally expensive IPLS-based smoothers are naturally robust but can still benefit from further regularisation.
Deep learning methods are emerging as popular computational tools for solving forward and inverse problems in traffic flow. In this paper, we study a neural operator framework for learning solutions to nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations with applications in macroscopic traffic flow models. In this framework, an operator is trained to map heterogeneous and sparse traffic input data to the complete macroscopic traffic state in a supervised learning setting. We chose a physics-informed Fourier neural operator ($\pi$-FNO) as the operator, where an additional physics loss based on a discrete conservation law regularizes the problem during training to improve the shock predictions. We also propose to use training data generated from random piecewise constant input data to systematically capture the shock and rarefied solutions. From experiments using the LWR traffic flow model, we found superior accuracy in predicting the density dynamics of a ring-road network and urban signalized road. We also found that the operator can be trained using simple traffic density dynamics, e.g., consisting of $2-3$ vehicle queues and $1-2$ traffic signal cycles, and it can predict density dynamics for heterogeneous vehicle queue distributions and multiple traffic signal cycles $(\geq 2)$ with an acceptable error. The extrapolation error grew sub-linearly with input complexity for a proper choice of the model architecture and training data. Adding a physics regularizer aided in learning long-term traffic density dynamics, especially for problems with periodic boundary data.
As a surrogate for computationally intensive meso-scale simulation of woven composites, this article presents Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models. Leveraging the power of transfer learning, the initialization challenges and sparse data issues inherent in cyclic shear strain loads are addressed in the RNN models. A mean-field model generates a comprehensive data set representing elasto-plastic behavior. In simulations, arbitrary six-dimensional strain histories are used to predict stresses under random walking as the source task and cyclic loading conditions as the target task. Incorporating sub-scale properties enhances RNN versatility. In order to achieve accurate predictions, the model uses a grid search method to tune network architecture and hyper-parameter configurations. The results of this study demonstrate that transfer learning can be used to effectively adapt the RNN to varying strain conditions, which establishes its potential as a useful tool for modeling path-dependent responses in woven composites.
We extend the use of piecewise orthogonal collocation to computing periodic solutions of renewal equations, which are particularly important in modeling population dynamics. We prove convergence through a rigorous error analysis. Finally, we show some numerical experiments confirming the theoretical results, and a couple of applications in view of bifurcation analysis.