The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a statistical methodology used in a large number of applications. It uses repeated random sampling to solve problems with a probability interpretation to obtain high-quality numerical results. The MCS is simple and easy to develop, implement, and apply. However, its computational cost and total runtime can be quite high as it requires many samples to obtain an accurate approximation with low variance. In this paper, a novel MCS, called the self-adaptive BAT-MCS, based on the binary-adaption-tree algorithm (BAT) and our proposed self-adaptive simulation-number algorithm is proposed to simply and effectively reduce the run time and variance of the MCS. The proposed self-adaptive BAT-MCS was applied to a simple benchmark problem to demonstrate its application in network reliability. The statistical characteristics, including the expectation, variance, and simulation number, and the time complexity of the proposed self-adaptive BAT-MCS are discussed. Furthermore, its performance is compared to that of the traditional MCS extensively on a large-scale problem.
Satellites and their instruments are subject to the motion stability throughout their lifetimes. The reliability of the large flexible space structures (LFSS) is particularly important for the motion stability of satellites and their instruments. In this paper, the reliability analysis of large flexible space structures is conducted based on Bayesian support vector regression (SVR). The kinematic model of a typical large flexible space structure is first established. Based on the kinematic model, the surrogate model of the motion of the large flexible space structure is then developed to further reduce the computational cost. Finally, the reliability analysis is conducted using the surrogate model. The proposed method shows high accuracy and efficiency for the reliability assessments of the typical large flexible space structure and can be further developed for other LFSS.
This paper introduces a new simulation-based inference procedure to model and sample from multi-dimensional probability distributions given access to i.i.d. samples, circumventing the usual approaches of explicitly modeling the density function or designing Markov chain Monte Carlo. Motivated by the seminal work on distance and isomorphism between metric measure spaces, we propose a new notion called the Reversible Gromov-Monge (RGM) distance and study how RGM can be used to design new transform samplers to perform simulation-based inference. Our RGM sampler can also estimate optimal alignments between two heterogeneous metric measure spaces $(\mathcal{X}, \mu, c_{\mathcal{X}})$ and $(\mathcal{Y}, \nu, c_{\mathcal{Y}})$ from empirical data sets, with estimated maps that approximately push forward one measure $\mu$ to the other $\nu$, and vice versa. Analytic properties of the RGM distance are derived; statistical rate of convergence, representation, and optimization questions regarding the induced sampler are studied. Synthetic and real-world examples showcasing the effectiveness of the RGM sampler are also demonstrated.
Many recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) optical flow models use finite-step recurrent update operations to emulate traditional algorithms by encouraging iterative refinements toward a stable flow estimation. However, these RNNs impose large computation and memory overheads, and are not directly trained to model such stable estimation. They can converge poorly and thereby suffer from performance degradation. To combat these drawbacks, we propose deep equilibrium (DEQ) flow estimators, an approach that directly solves for the flow as the infinite-level fixed point of an implicit layer (using any black-box solver), and differentiates through this fixed point analytically (thus requiring $O(1)$ training memory). This implicit-depth approach is not predicated on any specific model, and thus can be applied to a wide range of SOTA flow estimation model designs. The use of these DEQ flow estimators allows us to compute the flow faster using, e.g., fixed-point reuse and inexact gradients, consumes $4\sim6\times$ times less training memory than the recurrent counterpart, and achieves better results with the same computation budget. In addition, we propose a novel, sparse fixed-point correction scheme to stabilize our DEQ flow estimators, which addresses a longstanding challenge for DEQ models in general. We test our approach in various realistic settings and show that it improves SOTA methods on Sintel and KITTI datasets with substantially better computational and memory efficiency.
There has been an arising trend of adopting deep learning methods to study partial differential equations (PDEs). This article is to propose a Deep Learning Galerkin Method (DGM) for the closed-loop geothermal system, which is a new coupled multi-physics PDEs and mainly consists of a framework of underground heat exchange pipelines to extract the geothermal heat from the geothermal reservoir. This method is a natural combination of Galerkin Method and machine learning with the solution approximated by a neural network instead of a linear combination of basis functions. We train the neural network by randomly sampling the spatiotemporal points and minimize loss function to satisfy the differential operators, initial condition, boundary and interface conditions. Moreover, the approximate ability of the neural network is proved by the convergence of the loss function and the convergence of the neural network to the exact solution in L^2 norm under certain conditions. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to demonstrate the approximation ability of the neural networks intuitively.
This paper proposes a numerical method based on the Adomian decomposition approach for the time discretization, applied to Euler equations. A recursive property is demonstrated that allows to formulate the method in an appropriate and efficient way. To obtain a fully numerical scheme, the space discretization is achieved using the classical DG techniques. The efficiency of the obtained numerical scheme is demonstrated through numerical tests by comparison to exact solution and the popular Runge-Kutta DG method results.
We propose a stochastic conditional gradient method (CGM) for minimizing convex finite-sum objectives formed as a sum of smooth and non-smooth terms. Existing CGM variants for this template either suffer from slow convergence rates, or require carefully increasing the batch size over the course of the algorithm's execution, which leads to computing full gradients. In contrast, the proposed method, equipped with a stochastic average gradient (SAG) estimator, requires only one sample per iteration. Nevertheless, it guarantees fast convergence rates on par with more sophisticated variance reduction techniques. In applications we put special emphasis on problems with a large number of separable constraints. Such problems are prevalent among semidefinite programming (SDP) formulations arising in machine learning and theoretical computer science. We provide numerical experiments on matrix completion, unsupervised clustering, and sparsest-cut SDPs.
The stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics is one of the most fundamental algorithms to solve sampling problems and non-convex optimization appearing in several machine learning applications. Especially, its variance reduced versions have nowadays gained particular attention. In this paper, we study two variants of this kind, namely, the Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the Stochastic Recursive Gradient Langevin Dynamics. We prove their convergence to the objective distribution in terms of KL-divergence under the sole assumptions of smoothness and Log-Sobolev inequality which are weaker conditions than those used in prior works for these algorithms. With the batch size and the inner loop length set to $\sqrt{n}$, the gradient complexity to achieve an $\epsilon$-precision is $\tilde{O}((n+dn^{1/2}\epsilon^{-1})\gamma^2 L^2\alpha^{-2})$, which is an improvement from any previous analyses. We also show some essential applications of our result to non-convex optimization.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
Multi-camera vehicle tracking is one of the most complicated tasks in Computer Vision as it involves distinct tasks including Vehicle Detection, Tracking, and Re-identification. Despite the challenges, multi-camera vehicle tracking has immense potential in transportation applications including speed, volume, origin-destination (O-D), and routing data generation. Several recent works have addressed the multi-camera tracking problem. However, most of the effort has gone towards improving accuracy on high-quality benchmark datasets while disregarding lower camera resolutions, compression artifacts and the overwhelming amount of computational power and time needed to carry out this task on its edge and thus making it prohibitive for large-scale and real-time deployment. Therefore, in this work we shed light on practical issues that should be addressed for the design of a multi-camera tracking system to provide actionable and timely insights. Moreover, we propose a real-time city-scale multi-camera vehicle tracking system that compares favorably to computationally intensive alternatives and handles real-world, low-resolution CCTV instead of idealized and curated video streams. To show its effectiveness, in addition to integration into the Regional Integrated Transportation Information System (RITIS), we participated in the 2021 NVIDIA AI City multi-camera tracking challenge and our method is ranked among the top five performers on the public leaderboard.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.