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Early warning systems (EWS) are predictive tools at the center of recent efforts to improve graduation rates in public schools across the United States. These systems assist in targeting interventions to individual students by predicting which students are at risk of dropping out. Despite significant investments in their widespread adoption, there remain large gaps in our understanding of the efficacy of EWS, and the role of statistical risk scores in education. In this work, we draw on nearly a decade's worth of data from a system used throughout Wisconsin to provide the first large-scale evaluation of the long-term impact of EWS on graduation outcomes. We present empirical evidence that the prediction system accurately sorts students by their dropout risk. We also find that it may have caused a single-digit percentage increase in graduation rates, though our empirical analyses cannot reliably rule out that there has been no positive treatment effect. Going beyond a retrospective evaluation of DEWS, we draw attention to a central question at the heart of the use of EWS: Are individual risk scores necessary for effectively targeting interventions? We propose a simple mechanism that only uses information about students' environments -- such as their schools, and districts -- and argue that this mechanism can target interventions just as efficiently as the individual risk score-based mechanism. Our argument holds even if individual predictions are highly accurate and effective interventions exist. In addition to motivating this simple targeting mechanism, our work provides a novel empirical backbone for the robust qualitative understanding among education researchers that dropout is structurally determined. Combined, our insights call into question the marginal value of individual predictions in settings where outcomes are driven by high levels of inequality.

Theory and application of stochastic approximation (SA) has grown within the control systems community since the earliest days of adaptive control. This paper takes a new look at the topic, motivated by recent results establishing remarkable performance of SA with (sufficiently small) constant step-size $\alpha>0$. If averaging is implemented to obtain the final parameter estimate, then the estimates are asymptotically unbiased with nearly optimal asymptotic covariance. These results have been obtained for random linear SA recursions with i.i.d. coefficients. This paper obtains very different conclusions in the more common case of geometrically ergodic Markovian disturbance: (i) The $\textit{target bias}$ is identified, even in the case of non-linear SA, and is in general non-zero. The remaining results are established for linear SA recursions: (ii) the bivariate parameter-disturbance process is geometrically ergodic in a topological sense; (iii) the representation for bias has a simpler form in this case, and cannot be expected to be zero if there is multiplicative noise; (iv) the asymptotic covariance of the averaged parameters is within $O(\alpha)$ of optimal. The error term is identified, and may be massive if mean dynamics are not well conditioned. The theory is illustrated with application to TD-learning.

As human-robot interaction (HRI) systems advance, so does the difficulty of evaluating and understanding the strengths and limitations of these systems in different environments and with different users. To this end, previous methods have algorithmically generated diverse scenarios that reveal system failures in a shared control teleoperation task. However, these methods require directly evaluating generated scenarios by simulating robot policies and human actions. The computational cost of these evaluations limits their applicability in more complex domains. Thus, we propose augmenting scenario generation systems with surrogate models that predict both human and robot behaviors. In the shared control teleoperation domain and a more complex shared workspace collaboration task, we show that surrogate assisted scenario generation efficiently synthesizes diverse datasets of challenging scenarios. We demonstrate that these failures are reproducible in real-world interactions.

More research attention has recently been given to end-to-end autonomous driving technologies where the entire driving pipeline is replaced with a single neural network because of its simpler structure and faster inference time. Despite this appealing approach largely reducing the components in driving pipeline, its simplicity also leads to interpretability problems and safety issues arXiv:2003.06404. The trained policy is not always compliant with the traffic rules and it is also hard to discover the reason for the misbehavior because of the lack of intermediate outputs. Meanwhile, Sensors are also critical to autonomous driving's security and feasibility to perceive the surrounding environment under complex driving scenarios. In this paper, we proposed P-CSG, a novel penalty-based imitation learning approach with cross semantics generation sensor fusion technologies to increase the overall performance of End-to-End Autonomous Driving. We conducted an assessment of our model's performance using the Town 05 Long benchmark, achieving an impressive driving score improvement of over 15%. Furthermore, we conducted robustness evaluations against adversarial attacks like FGSM and Dot attacks, revealing a substantial increase in robustness compared to baseline models.More detailed information, such as code-based resources, ablation studies and videos can be found at //hk-zh.github.io/p-csg-plus.

We present a novel approach to address the challenge of generalization in offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the agent learns from a fixed dataset without any additional interaction with the environment. Specifically, we aim to improve the agent's ability to generalize to out-of-distribution goals. To achieve this, we propose to learn a dynamics model and check if it is equivariant with respect to a fixed type of transformation, namely translations in the state space. We then use an entropy regularizer to increase the equivariant set and augment the dataset with the resulting transformed samples. Finally, we learn a new policy offline based on the augmented dataset, with an off-the-shelf offline RL algorithm. Our experimental results demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the test performance of the policy on the considered environments.

Recent development of large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT has been widely applied to a wide range of software engineering tasks. Many papers have reported their analysis on the potential advantages and limitations of ChatGPT for writing code, summarization, text generation, etc. However, the analysis of the current state of ChatGPT for log processing has received little attention. Logs generated by large-scale software systems are complex and hard to understand. Despite their complexity, they provide crucial information for subject matter experts to understand the system status and diagnose problems of the systems. In this paper, we investigate the current capabilities of ChatGPT to perform several interesting tasks on log data, while also trying to identify its main shortcomings. Our findings show that the performance of the current version of ChatGPT for log processing is limited, with a lack of consistency in responses and scalability issues. We also outline our views on how we perceive the role of LLMs in the log processing discipline and possible next steps to improve the current capabilities of ChatGPT and the future LLMs in this area. We believe our work can contribute to future academic research to address the identified issues.

Despite the advancement of machine learning techniques in recent years, state-of-the-art systems lack robustness to "real world" events, where the input distributions and tasks encountered by the deployed systems will not be limited to the original training context, and systems will instead need to adapt to novel distributions and tasks while deployed. This critical gap may be addressed through the development of "Lifelong Learning" systems that are capable of 1) Continuous Learning, 2) Transfer and Adaptation, and 3) Scalability. Unfortunately, efforts to improve these capabilities are typically treated as distinct areas of research that are assessed independently, without regard to the impact of each separate capability on other aspects of the system. We instead propose a holistic approach, using a suite of metrics and an evaluation framework to assess Lifelong Learning in a principled way that is agnostic to specific domains or system techniques. Through five case studies, we show that this suite of metrics can inform the development of varied and complex Lifelong Learning systems. We highlight how the proposed suite of metrics quantifies performance trade-offs present during Lifelong Learning system development - both the widely discussed Stability-Plasticity dilemma and the newly proposed relationship between Sample Efficient and Robust Learning. Further, we make recommendations for the formulation and use of metrics to guide the continuing development of Lifelong Learning systems and assess their progress in the future.

In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.

Learning on big data brings success for artificial intelligence (AI), but the annotation and training costs are expensive. In future, learning on small data is one of the ultimate purposes of AI, which requires machines to recognize objectives and scenarios relying on small data as humans. A series of machine learning models is going on this way such as active learning, few-shot learning, deep clustering. However, there are few theoretical guarantees for their generalization performance. Moreover, most of their settings are passive, that is, the label distribution is explicitly controlled by one specified sampling scenario. This survey follows the agnostic active sampling under a PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) framework to analyze the generalization error and label complexity of learning on small data using a supervised and unsupervised fashion. With these theoretical analyses, we categorize the small data learning models from two geometric perspectives: the Euclidean and non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) mean representation, where their optimization solutions are also presented and discussed. Later, some potential learning scenarios that may benefit from small data learning are then summarized, and their potential learning scenarios are also analyzed. Finally, some challenging applications such as computer vision, natural language processing that may benefit from learning on small data are also surveyed.

Machine learning techniques have deeply rooted in our everyday life. However, since it is knowledge- and labor-intensive to pursue good learning performance, human experts are heavily involved in every aspect of machine learning. In order to make machine learning techniques easier to apply and reduce the demand for experienced human experts, automated machine learning (AutoML) has emerged as a hot topic with both industrial and academic interest. In this paper, we provide an up to date survey on AutoML. First, we introduce and define the AutoML problem, with inspiration from both realms of automation and machine learning. Then, we propose a general AutoML framework that not only covers most existing approaches to date but also can guide the design for new methods. Subsequently, we categorize and review the existing works from two aspects, i.e., the problem setup and the employed techniques. Finally, we provide a detailed analysis of AutoML approaches and explain the reasons underneath their successful applications. We hope this survey can serve as not only an insightful guideline for AutoML beginners but also an inspiration for future research.