Early warning systems (EWS) are predictive tools at the center of recent efforts to improve graduation rates in public schools across the United States. These systems assist in targeting interventions to individual students by predicting which students are at risk of dropping out. Despite significant investments in their widespread adoption, there remain large gaps in our understanding of the efficacy of EWS, and the role of statistical risk scores in education. In this work, we draw on nearly a decade's worth of data from a system used throughout Wisconsin to provide the first large-scale evaluation of the long-term impact of EWS on graduation outcomes. We present empirical evidence that the prediction system accurately sorts students by their dropout risk. We also find that it may have caused a single-digit percentage increase in graduation rates, though our empirical analyses cannot reliably rule out that there has been no positive treatment effect. Going beyond a retrospective evaluation of DEWS, we draw attention to a central question at the heart of the use of EWS: Are individual risk scores necessary for effectively targeting interventions? We propose a simple mechanism that only uses information about students' environments -- such as their schools, and districts -- and argue that this mechanism can target interventions just as efficiently as the individual risk score-based mechanism. Our argument holds even if individual predictions are highly accurate and effective interventions exist. In addition to motivating this simple targeting mechanism, our work provides a novel empirical backbone for the robust qualitative understanding among education researchers that dropout is structurally determined. Combined, our insights call into question the marginal value of individual predictions in settings where outcomes are driven by high levels of inequality.
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Vision Transformer (ViT) has demonstrated promising performance in computer vision tasks, comparable to state-of-the-art neural networks. Yet, this new type of deep neural network architecture is vulnerable to adversarial attacks limiting its capabilities in terms of robustness. This article presents a novel contribution aimed at further improving the accuracy and robustness of ViT, particularly in the face of adversarial attacks. We propose an augmentation technique called `Dynamic Scanning Augmentation' that leverages dynamic input sequences to adaptively focus on different patches, thereby maintaining performance and robustness. Our detailed investigations reveal that this adaptability to the input sequence induces significant changes in the attention mechanism of ViT, even for the same image. We introduce four variations of Dynamic Scanning Augmentation, outperforming ViT in terms of both robustness to adversarial attacks and accuracy against natural images, with one variant showing comparable results. By integrating our augmentation technique, we observe a substantial increase in ViT's robustness, improving it from $17\%$ to $92\%$ measured across different types of adversarial attacks. These findings, together with other comprehensive tests, indicate that Dynamic Scanning Augmentation enhances accuracy and robustness by promoting a more adaptive type of attention. In conclusion, this work contributes to the ongoing research on Vision Transformers by introducing Dynamic Scanning Augmentation as a technique for improving the accuracy and robustness of ViT. The observed results highlight the potential of this approach in advancing computer vision tasks and merit further exploration in future studies.
In privacy-preserving machine learning, differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) performs worse than SGD due to per-sample gradient clipping and noise addition. A recent focus in private learning research is improving the performance of DP-SGD on private data by incorporating priors that are learned on real-world public data. In this work, we explore how we can improve the privacy-utility tradeoff of DP-SGD by learning priors from images generated by random processes and transferring these priors to private data. We propose DP-RandP, a three-phase approach. We attain new state-of-the-art accuracy when training from scratch on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, MedMNIST and ImageNet for a range of privacy budgets $\varepsilon \in [1, 8]$. In particular, we improve the previous best reported accuracy on CIFAR10 from $60.6 \%$ to $72.3 \%$ for $\varepsilon=1$.
Quantitative methods in Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) research have primarily relied upon randomized, controlled experiments in laboratory settings. However, such experiments are not always feasible when external validity, ethical constraints, and ease of data collection are of concern. Furthermore, as consumer robots become increasingly available, increasing amounts of real-world data will be available to HRI researchers, which prompts the need for quantative approaches tailored to the analysis of observational data. In this article, we present an alternate approach towards quantitative research for HRI researchers using methods from causal inference that can enable researchers to identify causal relationships in observational settings where randomized, controlled experiments cannot be run. We highlight different scenarios that HRI research with consumer household robots may involve to contextualize how methods from causal inference can be applied to observational HRI research. We then provide a tutorial summarizing key concepts from causal inference using a graphical model perspective and link to code examples throughout the article, which are available at //gitlab.com/causal/causal_hri. Our work paves the way for further discussion on new approaches towards observational HRI research while providing a starting point for HRI researchers to add causal inference techniques to their analytical toolbox.
This article presents a leak localization methodology based on state estimation and learning. The first is handled by an interpolation scheme, whereas dictionary learning is considered for the second stage. The novel proposed interpolation technique exploits the physics of the interconnections between hydraulic heads of neighboring nodes in water distribution networks. Additionally, residuals are directly interpolated instead of hydraulic head values. The results of applying the proposed method to a well-known case study (Modena) demonstrated the improvements of the new interpolation method with respect to a state-of-the-art approach, both in terms of interpolation error (considering state and residual estimation) and posterior localization.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great promise for developing dialogue management (DM) agents that are non-myopic, conduct rich conversations, and maximize overall user satisfaction. Despite recent developments in RL and language models (LMs), using RL to power conversational chatbots remains challenging, in part because RL requires online exploration to learn effectively, whereas collecting novel human-bot interactions can be expensive and unsafe. This issue is exacerbated by the combinatorial action spaces facing these algorithms, as most LM agents generate responses at the word level. We develop a variety of RL algorithms, specialized to dialogue planning, that leverage recent Mixture-of-Expert Language Models (MoE-LMs) -- models that capture diverse semantics, generate utterances reflecting different intents, and are amenable for multi-turn DM. By exploiting MoE-LM structure, our methods significantly reduce the size of the action space and improve the efficacy of RL-based DM. We evaluate our methods in open-domain dialogue to demonstrate their effectiveness w.r.t.\ the diversity of intent in generated utterances and overall DM performance.
Membership inference attacks (MIA) can reveal whether a particular data point was part of the training dataset, potentially exposing sensitive information about individuals. This article explores the fundamental statistical limitations associated with MIAs on machine learning models. More precisely, we first derive the statistical quantity that governs the effectiveness and success of such attacks. Then, we investigate several situations for which we provide bounds on this quantity of interest. This allows us to infer the accuracy of potential attacks as a function of the number of samples and other structural parameters of learning models, which in some cases can be directly estimated from the dataset.
Querying knowledge graphs (KGs) using deep learning approaches can naturally leverage the reasoning and generalization ability to learn to infer better answers. Traditional neural complex query answering (CQA) approaches mostly work on entity-centric KGs. However, in the real world, we also need to make logical inferences about events, states, and activities (i.e., eventualities or situations) to push learning systems from System I to System II, as proposed by Yoshua Bengio. Querying logically from an EVentuality-centric KG (EVKG) can naturally provide references to such kind of intuitive and logical inference. Thus, in this paper, we propose a new framework to leverage neural methods to answer complex logical queries based on an EVKG, which can satisfy not only traditional first-order logic constraints but also implicit logical constraints over eventualities concerning their occurrences and orders. For instance, if we know that "Food is bad" happens before "PersonX adds soy sauce", then "PersonX adds soy sauce" is unlikely to be the cause of "Food is bad" due to implicit temporal constraint. To facilitate consistent reasoning on EVKGs, we propose Complex Eventuality Query Answering (CEQA), a more rigorous definition of CQA that considers the implicit logical constraints governing the temporal order and occurrence of eventualities. In this manner, we propose to leverage theorem provers for constructing benchmark datasets to ensure the answers satisfy implicit logical constraints. We also propose a Memory-Enhanced Query Encoding (MEQE) approach to significantly improve the performance of state-of-the-art neural query encoders on the CEQA task.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have received considerable attention on graph-structured data learning for a wide variety of tasks. The well-designed propagation mechanism which has been demonstrated effective is the most fundamental part of GNNs. Although most of GNNs basically follow a message passing manner, litter effort has been made to discover and analyze their essential relations. In this paper, we establish a surprising connection between different propagation mechanisms with a unified optimization problem, showing that despite the proliferation of various GNNs, in fact, their proposed propagation mechanisms are the optimal solution optimizing a feature fitting function over a wide class of graph kernels with a graph regularization term. Our proposed unified optimization framework, summarizing the commonalities between several of the most representative GNNs, not only provides a macroscopic view on surveying the relations between different GNNs, but also further opens up new opportunities for flexibly designing new GNNs. With the proposed framework, we discover that existing works usually utilize naive graph convolutional kernels for feature fitting function, and we further develop two novel objective functions considering adjustable graph kernels showing low-pass or high-pass filtering capabilities respectively. Moreover, we provide the convergence proofs and expressive power comparisons for the proposed models. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets clearly show that the proposed GNNs not only outperform the state-of-the-art methods but also have good ability to alleviate over-smoothing, and further verify the feasibility for designing GNNs with our unified optimization framework.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.
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