We study the convergence rate of discretized Riemannian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on sampling from distributions in the form of $e^{-f(x)}$ on a convex body $\mathcal{M}\subset\mathbb{R}^{n}$. We show that for distributions in the form of $e^{-\alpha^{\top}x}$ on a polytope with $m$ constraints, the convergence rate of a family of commonly-used integrators is independent of $\left\Vert \alpha\right\Vert _{2}$ and the geometry of the polytope. In particular, the implicit midpoint method (IMM) and the generalized Leapfrog method (LM) have a mixing time of $\widetilde{O}\left(mn^{3}\right)$ to achieve $\epsilon$ total variation distance to the target distribution. These guarantees are based on a general bound on the convergence rate for densities of the form $e^{-f(x)}$ in terms of parameters of the manifold and the integrator. Our theoretical guarantee complements the empirical results of [KLSV22], which shows that RHMC with IMM can sample ill-conditioned, non-smooth and constrained distributions in very high dimension efficiently in practice.
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The problem of causal inference with panel data is a central econometric question. The following is a fundamental version of this problem: Let $M^*$ be a low rank matrix and $E$ be a zero-mean noise matrix. For a `treatment' matrix $Z$ with entries in $\{0,1\}$ we observe the matrix $O$ with entries $O_{ij} := M^*_{ij} + E_{ij} + \mathcal{T}_{ij} Z_{ij}$ where $\mathcal{T}_{ij} $ are unknown, heterogenous treatment effects. The problem requires we estimate the average treatment effect $\tau^* := \sum_{ij} \mathcal{T}_{ij} Z_{ij} / \sum_{ij} Z_{ij}$. The synthetic control paradigm provides an approach to estimating $\tau^*$ when $Z$ places support on a single row. This paper extends that framework to allow rate-optimal recovery of $\tau^*$ for general $Z$, thus broadly expanding its applicability. Our guarantees are the first of their type in this general setting. Computational experiments on synthetic and real-world data show a substantial advantage over competing estimators.
Additive Noise Models (ANM) encode a popular functional assumption that enables learning causal structure from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data meeting the assumptions, synthetic ANM data are often used to evaluate causal discovery algorithms. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for common simulation parameters, a variable ordering by increasing variance is closely aligned with a causal order and introduce var-sortability to quantify the alignment. Here, we show that not only variance, but also the fraction of a variable's variance explained by all others, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. Simple baseline algorithms can use $R^2$-sortability to match the performance of established methods. Since $R^2$-sortability is invariant under data rescaling, these algorithms perform equally well on standardized or rescaled data, addressing a key limitation of algorithms exploiting var-sortability. We characterize and empirically assess $R^2$-sortability for different simulation parameters. We show that all simulation parameters can affect $R^2$-sortability and must be chosen deliberately to control the difficulty of the causal discovery task and the real-world plausibility of the simulated data. We provide an implementation of the sortability measures and sortability-based algorithms in our library CausalDisco (//github.com/CausalDisco/CausalDisco).
Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.
We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a fixed sample size. Our approach combines four tools in the following order: (a) nonnegative supermartingales or reverse submartingales, (b) the method of mixtures, (c) the Donsker-Varadhan formula (or other convex duality principles), and (d) Ville's inequality. Our main result is a PAC-Bayes theorem which holds for a wide class of discrete stochastic processes. We show how this result implies time-uniform versions of well-known classical PAC-Bayes bounds, such as those of Seeger, McAllester, Maurer, and Catoni, in addition to many recent bounds. We also present several novel bounds. Our framework also enables us to relax traditional assumptions; in particular, we consider nonstationary loss functions and non-i.i.d. data. In sum, we unify the derivation of past bounds and ease the search for future bounds: one may simply check if our supermartingale or submartingale conditions are met and, if so, be guaranteed a (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes bound.
Retinal fundus images can be an invaluable diagnosis tool for screening epidemic diseases like hypertension or diabetes. And they become especially useful when the arterioles and venules they depict are clearly identified and annotated. However, manual annotation of these vessels is extremely time demanding and taxing, which calls for automatic segmentation. Although convolutional neural networks can achieve high overlap between predictions and expert annotations, they often fail to produce topologically correct predictions of tubular structures. This situation is exacerbated by the bifurcation versus crossing ambiguity which causes classification mistakes. This paper shows that including a topology preserving term in the loss function improves the continuity of the segmented vessels, although at the expense of artery-vein misclassification and overall lower overlap metrics. However, we show that by including an orientation score guided convolutional module, based on the anisotropic single sided cake wavelet, we reduce such misclassification and further increase the topology correctness of the results. We evaluate our model on public datasets with conveniently chosen metrics to assess both overlap and topology correctness, showing that our model is able to produce results on par with state-of-the-art from the point of view of overlap, while increasing topological accuracy.
The static optimal transport $(\mathrm{OT})$ problem between Gaussians seeks to recover an optimal map, or more generally a coupling, to morph a Gaussian into another. It has been well studied and applied to a wide variety of tasks. Here we focus on the dynamic formulation of OT, also known as the Schr\"odinger bridge (SB) problem, which has recently seen a surge of interest in machine learning due to its connections with diffusion-based generative models. In contrast to the static setting, much less is known about the dynamic setting, even for Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide closed-form expressions for SBs between Gaussian measures. In contrast to the static Gaussian OT problem, which can be simply reduced to studying convex programs, our framework for solving SBs requires significantly more involved tools such as Riemannian geometry and generator theory. Notably, we establish that the solutions of SBs between Gaussian measures are themselves Gaussian processes with explicit mean and covariance kernels, and thus are readily amenable for many downstream applications such as generative modeling or interpolation. To demonstrate the utility, we devise a new method for modeling the evolution of single-cell genomics data and report significantly improved numerical stability compared to existing SB-based approaches.
Multiple systems estimation is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. A typical modelling approach is to fit a Poisson loglinear model to the numbers of cases observed in each possible combination of the lists. It is necessary to decide which interaction parameters to include in the model, and information criterion approaches are often used for model selection. Difficulties in the context of multiple systems estimation may arise due to sparse or nil counts based on the intersection of lists, and care must be taken when information criterion approaches are used for model selection due to issues relating to the existence of estimates and identifiability of the model. Confidence intervals are often reported conditional on the model selected, providing an over-optimistic impression of the accuracy of the estimation. A bootstrap approach is a natural way to account for the model selection procedure. However, because the model selection step has to be carried out for every bootstrap replication, there may be a high or even prohibitive computational burden. We explore the merit of modifying the model selection procedure in the bootstrap to look only among a subset of models, chosen on the basis of their information criterion score on the original data. This provides large computational gains with little apparent effect on inference. Another model selection approach considered and investigated is a downhill search approach among models, possibly with multiple starting points.
This paper addresses the challenge of generating optimal vehicle flow at the macroscopic level. Although several studies have focused on optimizing vehicle flow, little attention has been given to ensuring it can be practically achieved. To overcome this issue, we propose a route-recovery and eco-driving strategy for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) that guarantees optimal flow generation. Our approach involves identifying the optimal vehicle flow that minimizes total travel time, given the constant travel demands in urban areas. We then develop a heuristic route-recovery algorithm to assign routes to CAVs that satisfy all travel demands while maintaining the optimal flow. Our method lets CAVs arrive at each road segment at their desired arrival time based on their assigned route and desired flow. In addition, we present an efficient coordination framework to minimize the energy consumption of CAVs and prevent collisions while crossing intersections. The proposed method can effectively generate optimal vehicle flow and potentially reduce travel time and energy consumption in urban areas.
Game theory has by now found numerous applications in various fields, including economics, industry, jurisprudence, and artificial intelligence, where each player only cares about its own interest in a noncooperative or cooperative manner, but without obvious malice to other players. However, in many practical applications, such as poker, chess, evader pursuing, drug interdiction, coast guard, cyber-security, and national defense, players often have apparently adversarial stances, that is, selfish actions of each player inevitably or intentionally inflict loss or wreak havoc on other players. Along this line, this paper provides a systematic survey on three main game models widely employed in adversarial games, i.e., zero-sum normal-form and extensive-form games, Stackelberg (security) games, zero-sum differential games, from an array of perspectives, including basic knowledge of game models, (approximate) equilibrium concepts, problem classifications, research frontiers, (approximate) optimal strategy seeking techniques, prevailing algorithms, and practical applications. Finally, promising future research directions are also discussed for relevant adversarial games.
A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.
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