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We propose a new wavelet-based method for density estimation when the data are size-biased. More specifically, we consider a power of the density of interest, where this power exceeds 1/2. Warped wavelet bases are employed, where warping is attained by some continuous cumulative distribution function. This can be seen as a general framework in which the conventional orthonormal wavelet estimation is the case where warping distribution is the standard uniform c.d.f. We show that both linear and nonlinear wavelet estimators are consistent, with optimal and/or near-optimal rates. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare four special settings which are easy to interpret in practice. An application with a real dataset on fatal traffic accidents involving alcohol illustrates the method. We observe that warped bases provide more flexible and superior estimates for both simulated and real data. Moreover, we find that estimating the power of a density (for instance, its square root) further improves the results.

Stochastic gradient methods have enabled variational inference for high-dimensional models and large data. However, the steepest ascent direction in the parameter space of a statistical model is given not by the commonly used Euclidean gradient, but the natural gradient which premultiplies the Euclidean gradient by the inverted Fisher information matrix. Use of natural gradients can improve convergence significantly, but inverting the Fisher information matrix is daunting in high-dimensions. In Gaussian variational approximation, natural gradient updates of the natural parameters (expressed in terms of the mean and precision matrix) of the Gaussian distribution can be derived analytically, but do not ensure the precision matrix remains positive definite. To tackle this issue, we consider Cholesky decomposition of the covariance or precision matrix and derive explicit natural gradient updates of the Cholesky factor, which depend only on the first instead of the second derivative of the log posterior density, by finding the inverse of the Fisher information matrix analytically. Efficient natural gradient updates of the Cholesky factor are also derived under sparsity constraints incorporating different posterior independence structures.

In this paper we are concerned with a sequence of univariate random variables with piecewise polynomial means and independent sub-Gaussian noise. The underlying polynomials are allowed to be of arbitrary but fixed degrees. All the other model parameters are allowed to vary depending on the sample size. We propose a two-step estimation procedure based on the $\ell_0$-penalisation and provide upper bounds on the localisation error. We complement these results by deriving a global information-theoretic lower bounds, which show that our two-step estimators are nearly minimax rate-optimal. We also show that our estimator enjoys near optimally adaptive performance by attaining individual localisation errors depending on the level of smoothness at individual change points of the underlying signal. In addition, under a special smoothness constraint, we provide a minimax lower bound on the localisation errors. This lower bound is independent of the polynomial orders and is sharper than the global minimax lower bound.

This paper studies Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of Dynamic Factor Models for large panels of time series. Specifically, we consider the case in which the autocorrelation of the factors is explicitly accounted for, and therefore the model has a state-space form. Estimation of the factors and their loadings is implemented through the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, jointly with the Kalman smoother.~We prove that as both the dimension of the panel $n$ and the sample size $T$ diverge to infinity, up to logarithmic terms: (i) the estimated loadings are $\sqrt T$-consistent and asymptotically normal if $\sqrt T/n\to 0$; (ii) the estimated factors are $\sqrt n$-consistent and asymptotically normal if $\sqrt n/T\to 0$; (iii) the estimated common component is $\min(\sqrt n,\sqrt T)$-consistent and asymptotically normal regardless of the relative rate of divergence of $n$ and $T$. Although the model is estimated as if the idiosyncratic terms were cross-sectionally and serially uncorrelated and normally distributed, we show that these mis-specifications do not affect consistency. Moreover, the estimated loadings are asymptotically as efficient as those obtained with the Principal Components estimator, while the estimated factors are more efficient if the idiosyncratic covariance is sparse enough.~We then propose robust estimators of the asymptotic covariances, which can be used to conduct inference on the loadings and to compute confidence intervals for the factors and common components. Finally, we study the performance of our estimators and we compare them with the traditional Principal Components approach through MonteCarlo simulations and analysis of US macroeconomic data.

Wearable devices such as the ActiGraph are now commonly used in health studies to monitor or track physical activity. This trend aligns well with the growing need to accurately assess the effects of physical activity on health outcomes such as obesity. When accessing the association between these device-based physical activity measures with health outcomes such as body mass index, the device-based data is considered functions, while the outcome is a scalar-valued. The regression model applied in these settings is the scalar-on-function regression (SoFR). Most estimation approaches in SoFR assume that the functional covariates are precisely observed, or the measurement errors are considered random errors. Violation of this assumption can lead to both under-estimation of the model parameters and sub-optimal analysis. The literature on a measurement corrected approach in SoFR is sparse in the non-Bayesian literature and virtually non-existent in the Bayesian literature. This paper considers a fully nonparametric Bayesian measurement error corrected SoFR model that relaxes all the constraining assumptions often made in these models. Our estimation relies on an instrumental variable (IV) to identify the measurement error model. Finally, we introduce an IV quality scalar parameter that is jointly estimated along with all model parameters. Our method is easy to implement, and we demonstrate its finite sample properties through an extensive simulation. Finally, the developed methods are applied to the National Health and Examination Survey to assess the relationship between wearable-device-based measures of physical activity and body mass index among adults living in the United States.

The FOU(p) processes can be considered as an alternative to ARMA (or ARFIMA) processes to model time series. Also, there is no substantial loss when we model a time series using FOU(p) processes with the same lambda, than using differents values of lambda. In this work we propose a new method to estimate the unique value of lambda in a FOU(p) process. Under certain conditions, we will prove consistency and asymptotic normality. We will show that this new method is more easy and fast to compute. By simulations, we show that the new procedure work well and is more efficient than the general method. Also, we include an application to real data, and we show that the new method work well too and outperforms the family of ARMA(p, q).

We consider the problem of sketching a stochastic valuation function, defined as the expectation of a valuation function of independent random item values. We show that for monotone subadditive or submodular valuation functions that satisfy a weak homogeneity condition, or certain other conditions, there exist discretized distributions of item values with $O(k\log(k))$ support sizes that yield a sketch valuation function which is a constant-factor approximation, for any value query for a set of items of cardinality less than or equal to $k$. These discretized distributions can be efficiently computed by an algorithm for each item's value distribution separately. The obtained sketch results are of interest for various optimization problems such as best set selection and welfare maximization problems.

Dual complex numbers can represent rigid body motion in 2D spaces. Dual complex matrices are linked with screw theory, and have potential applications in various areas. In this paper, we study low rank approximation of dual complex matrices. We define $2$-norm for dual complex vectors, and Frobenius norm for dual complex matrices. These norms are nonnegative dual numbers. We establish the unitary invariance property of dual complex matrices. We study eigenvalues of square dual complex matrices, and show that an $n \times n$ dual complex Hermitian matrix has exactly $n$ eigenvalues, which are dual numbers. We present a singular value decomposition (SVD) theorem for dual complex matrices, define ranks and appreciable ranks for dual complex matrices, and study their properties. We establish an Eckart-Young like theorem for dual complex matrices, and present an algorithm framework for low rank approximation of dual complex matrices via truncated SVD. The SVD of dual complex matrices also provides a basic tool for Principal Component Analysis (PCA) via these matrices. Numerical experiments are reported.

Optimum parameter estimation methods require knowledge of a parametric probability density that statistically describes the available observations. In this work we examine Bayesian and non-Bayesian parameter estimation problems under a data-driven formulation where the necessary parametric probability density is replaced by available data. We present various data-driven versions that either result in neural network approximations of the optimum estimators or in well defined optimization problems that can be solved numerically. In particular, for the data-driven equivalent of non-Bayesian estimation we end up with optimization problems similar to the ones encountered for the design of generative networks.

A new source model, which consists of an intrinsic state part and an extrinsic observation part, is proposed and its information-theoretic characterization, namely its rate-distortion function, is defined and analyzed. Such a source model is motivated by the recent surge of interest in the semantic aspect of information: the intrinsic state corresponds to the semantic feature of the source, which in general is not observable but can only be inferred from the extrinsic observation. There are two distortion measures, one between the intrinsic state and its reproduction, and the other between the extrinsic observation and its reproduction. Under a given code rate, the tradeoff between these two distortion measures is characterized by the rate-distortion function, which is solved via the indirect rate-distortion theory and is termed as the semantic rate-distortion function of the source. As an application of the general model and its analysis, the case of Gaussian extrinsic observation is studied, assuming a linear relationship between the intrinsic state and the extrinsic observation, under a quadratic distortion structure. The semantic rate-distortion function is shown to be the solution of a convex programming programming with respect to an error covariance matrix, and a reverse water-filling type of solution is provided when the model further satisfies a diagonalizability condition.