This paper reviews the state of the art in satellite and machine learning based poverty estimates and finds some interesting results. The most important factors correlated to the predictive power of welfare in the reviewed studies are the number of pre-processing steps employed, the number of datasets used, the type of welfare indicator targeted, and the choice of AI model. As expected, studies that used hard indicators as targets achieved better performance in predicting welfare than those that targeted soft ones. Also expected was the number of pre-processing steps and datasets used having a positive and statistically significant relationship with welfare estimation performance. Even more important, we find that the combination of ML and DL significantly increases predictive power by as much as 15 percentage points compared to using either alone. Surprisingly, we find that the spatial resolution of the satellite imagery used is important but not critical to the performance as the relationship is positive but not statistically significant. The finding of no evidence indicating that predictive performance of a statistically significant effect occurs over time was also unexpected. These findings have important implications for future research in this domain. For example, the level of effort and resources devoted to acquiring more expensive, higher resolution SI will have to be reconsidered given that medium resolutions ones seem to achieve similar results. The increasingly popular approach of combining ML, DL, and TL, either in a concurrent or iterative manner, might become a standard approach to achieving better results.
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Intensive Care Units usually carry patients with a serious risk of mortality. Recent research has shown the ability of Machine Learning to indicate the patients' mortality risk and point physicians toward individuals with a heightened need for care. Nevertheless, healthcare data is often subject to privacy regulations and can therefore not be easily shared in order to build Centralized Machine Learning models that use the combined data of multiple hospitals. Federated Learning is a Machine Learning framework designed for data privacy that can be used to circumvent this problem. In this study, we evaluate the ability of deep Federated Learning to predict the risk of Intensive Care Unit mortality at an early stage. We compare the predictive performance of Federated, Centralized, and Local Machine Learning in terms of AUPRC, F1-score, and AUROC. Our results show that Federated Learning performs equally well as the centralized approach and is substantially better than the local approach, thus providing a viable solution for early Intensive Care Unit mortality prediction. In addition, we show that the prediction performance is higher when the patient history window is closer to discharge or death. Finally, we show that using the F1-score as an early stopping metric can stabilize and increase the performance of our approach for the task at hand.
This paper introduces and studies zero-base generalized few-shot learning (zero-base GFSL), which is an extreme yet practical version of few-shot learning problem. Motivated by the cases where base data is not available due to privacy or ethical issues, the goal of zero-base GFSL is to newly incorporate the knowledge of few samples of novel classes into a pretrained model without any samples of base classes. According to our analysis, we discover the fact that both mean and variance of the weight distribution of novel classes are not properly established, compared to those of base classes. The existing GFSL methods attempt to make the weight norms balanced, which we find helps only the variance part, but discard the importance of mean of weights particularly for novel classes, leading to the limited performance in the GFSL problem even with base data. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by proposing a simple yet effective normalization method that can effectively control both mean and variance of the weight distribution of novel classes without using any base samples and thereby achieve a satisfactory performance on both novel and base classes. Our experimental results somewhat surprisingly show that the proposed zero-base GFSL method that does not utilize any base samples even outperforms the existing GFSL methods that make the best use of base data. Our implementation is available at: //github.com/bigdata-inha/Zero-Base-GFSL.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for modeling complex interactions between entities represented as vertices of a graph. Despite recent efforts to theoretically analyze the expressive power of GNNs, a formal characterization of their ability to model interactions is lacking. The current paper aims to address this gap. Formalizing strength of interactions through an established measure known as separation rank, we quantify the ability of certain GNNs to model interaction between a given subset of vertices and its complement, i.e. between sides of a given partition of input vertices. Our results reveal that the ability to model interaction is primarily determined by the partition's walk index -- a graph-theoretical characteristic that we define by the number of walks originating from the boundary of the partition. Experiments with common GNN architectures corroborate this finding. As a practical application of our theory, we design an edge sparsification algorithm named Walk Index Sparsification (WIS), which preserves the ability of a GNN to model interactions when input edges are removed. WIS is simple, computationally efficient, and markedly outperforms alternative methods in terms of induced prediction accuracy. More broadly, it showcases the potential of improving GNNs by theoretically analyzing the interactions they can model.
With infinitely many high-quality data points, infinite computational power, an infinitely large foundation model with a perfect training algorithm and guaranteed zero generalization error on the pretext task, can the model be used for everything? This question cannot be answered by the existing theory of representation, optimization or generalization, because the issues they mainly investigate are assumed to be nonexistent here. In this paper, we show that category theory provides powerful machinery to answer this question. We have proved three results. The first one limits the power of prompt-based learning, saying that the model can solve a downstream task with prompts if and only if the task is representable. The second one says fine tuning does not have this limit, as a foundation model with the minimum power (up to symmetry) can theoretically solve downstream tasks with fine tuning and enough resources. Our final result can be seen as a new type of generalization theorem, showing that the foundation model can generate unseen objects from the target category (e.g., images) using the structural information from the source category (e.g., texts). Along the way, we provide a categorical framework for supervised and self-supervised learning, which might be of independent interest.
Text detection in natural scenes has been a significant and active research subject in computer vision and document analysis because of its wide range of applications as evidenced by the emergence of the Robust Reading Competition. One of the algorithms which has good text detection performance in the said competition is the Character Region Awareness for Text Detection (CRAFT). Employing the ICDAR 2013 dataset, this study investigates the impact of automatic image classification and blind deconvolution as image pre-processing steps to further enhance the text detection performance of CRAFT. The proposed technique automatically classifies the scene images into two categories, blurry and non-blurry, by utilizing of a Laplacian operator with 100 as threshold. Prior to applying the CRAFT algorithm, images that are categorized as blurry are further pre-processed using blind deconvolution to reduce the blur. The results revealed that the proposed method significantly enhanced the detection performance of CRAFT, as demonstrated by its IoU h-mean of 94.47% compared to the original 91.42% h-mean of CRAFT and this even outperformed the top-ranked SenseTime, whose h-mean is 93.62%.
Diffusion models are a class of deep generative models that have shown impressive results on various tasks with dense theoretical founding. Although diffusion models have achieved impressive quality and diversity of sample synthesis than other state-of-the-art models, they still suffer from costly sampling procedure and sub-optimal likelihood estimation. Recent studies have shown great enthusiasm on improving the performance of diffusion model. In this article, we present a first comprehensive review of existing variants of the diffusion models. Specifically, we provide a first taxonomy of diffusion models and categorize them variants to three types, namely sampling-acceleration enhancement, likelihood-maximization enhancement and data-generalization enhancement. We also introduce in detail other five generative models (i.e., variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, normalizing flow, autoregressive models, and energy-based models), and clarify the connections between diffusion models and these generative models. Then we make a thorough investigation into the applications of diffusion models, including computer vision, natural language processing, waveform signal processing, multi-modal modeling, molecular graph generation, time series modeling, and adversarial purification. Furthermore, we propose new perspectives pertaining to the development of this generative model.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website //pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.
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