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Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

Parking occupancy estimation holds significant potential in facilitating parking resource management and mitigating traffic congestion. Existing approaches employ robotic systems to detect the occupancy status of individual parking spaces and primarily focus on enhancing detection accuracy through perception pipelines. However, these methods often overlook the crucial aspect of robot path planning, which can hinder the accurate estimation of the entire parking area. In light of these limitations, we introduce the problem of informative path planning for parking occupancy estimation using autonomous vehicles and formulate it as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) task. Then, we develop an occupancy state transition model and introduce a Bayes filter to estimate occupancy based on noisy sensor measurements. Subsequently, we propose the Monte Carlo Bayes Filter Tree, a computationally efficient algorithm that leverages progressive widening to generate informative paths. We demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the benchmark methods in diverse simulation environments, effectively striking a balance between optimality and computational efficiency.

We present SEIF, a methodology that combines static analysis with symbolic execution to verify and explicate information flow paths in a hardware design. SEIF begins with a statically built model of the information flow through a design and uses guided symbolic execution to recognize and eliminate non-flows with high precision or to find corresponding paths through the design state for true flows. We evaluate SEIF on two open-source CPUs, an AES core, and the AKER access control module. SEIF can exhaustively explore 10-12 clock cycles deep in 4-6 seconds on average, and can automatically account for 86-90% of the paths in the statically built model. Additionally, SEIF can be used to find multiple violating paths for security properties, providing a new angle for security verification.

We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal distributions of time series under general assumptions. Self-normalization allows us to avoid the issues of standard error estimation. The theoretical foundations for our methods are functional central limit theorems, which we develop under weak assumptions. An empirical study of S&P 500 and US Treasury bond returns illustrates the practical use of our methods in detecting and quantifying market instability via the tails of financial time series.

Large language models rely on real-valued representations of text to make their predictions. These representations contain information learned from the data that the model has trained on, including knowledge of linguistic properties and forms of demographic bias, e.g., based on gender. A growing body of work has considered removing information about concepts such as these using orthogonal projections onto subspaces of the representation space. We contribute to this body of work by proposing a formal definition of $\textit{intrinsic}$ information in a subspace of a language model's representation space. We propose a counterfactual approach that avoids the failure mode of spurious correlations (Kumar et al., 2022) by treating components in the subspace and its orthogonal complement independently. We show that our counterfactual notion of information in a subspace is optimized by a $\textit{causal}$ concept subspace. Furthermore, this intervention allows us to attempt concept controlled generation by manipulating the value of the conceptual component of a representation. Empirically, we find that R-LACE (Ravfogel et al., 2022) returns a one-dimensional subspace containing roughly half of total concept information under our framework. Our causal controlled intervention shows that, for at least one model, the subspace returned by R-LACE can be used to manipulate the concept value of the generated word with precision.

Knowledge graphs represent factual knowledge about the world as relationships between concepts and are critical for intelligent decision making in enterprise applications. New knowledge is inferred from the existing facts in the knowledge graphs by encoding the concepts and relations into low-dimensional feature vector representations. The most effective representations for this task, called Knowledge Graph Embeddings (KGE), are learned through neural network architectures. Due to their impressive predictive performance, they are increasingly used in high-impact domains like healthcare, finance and education. However, are the black-box KGE models adversarially robust for use in domains with high stakes? This thesis argues that state-of-the-art KGE models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks, that is, their predictive performance can be degraded by systematically crafted perturbations to the training knowledge graph. To support this argument, two novel data poisoning attacks are proposed that craft input deletions or additions at training time to subvert the learned model's performance at inference time. These adversarial attacks target the task of predicting the missing facts in knowledge graphs using KGE models, and the evaluation shows that the simpler attacks are competitive with or outperform the computationally expensive ones. The thesis contributions not only highlight and provide an opportunity to fix the security vulnerabilities of KGE models, but also help to understand the black-box predictive behaviour of KGE models.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

Recent developments in image classification and natural language processing, coupled with the rapid growth in social media usage, have enabled fundamental advances in detecting breaking events around the world in real-time. Emergency response is one such area that stands to gain from these advances. By processing billions of texts and images a minute, events can be automatically detected to enable emergency response workers to better assess rapidly evolving situations and deploy resources accordingly. To date, most event detection techniques in this area have focused on image-only or text-only approaches, limiting detection performance and impacting the quality of information delivered to crisis response teams. In this paper, we present a new multimodal fusion method that leverages both images and texts as input. In particular, we introduce a cross-attention module that can filter uninformative and misleading components from weak modalities on a sample by sample basis. In addition, we employ a multimodal graph-based approach to stochastically transition between embeddings of different multimodal pairs during training to better regularize the learning process as well as dealing with limited training data by constructing new matched pairs from different samples. We show that our method outperforms the unimodal approaches and strong multimodal baselines by a large margin on three crisis-related tasks.

High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.

Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.