In early 2021 the United States Capitol in Washington was stormed during a riot and violent attack. A similar storming occurred in Brazil in 2023. Although both attacks were instances in longer sequences of events, these have provided a testimony for many observers who had claimed that online actions, including the propagation of disinformation, have offline consequences. Soon after, a number of papers have been published about the relation between online disinformation and offline violence, among other related relations. Hitherto, the effects upon political protests have been unexplored. This paper thus evaluates such effects with a time series cross-sectional sample of 125 countries in a period between 2000 and 2019. The results are mixed. Based on Bayesian multi-level regression modeling, (i) there indeed is an effect between online disinformation and offline protests, but the effect is partially meditated by political polarization. The results are clearer in a sample of countries belonging to the European Economic Area. With this sample, (ii) offline protest counts increase from online disinformation disseminated by domestic governments, political parties, and politicians as well as by foreign governments. Furthermore, (iii) Internet shutdowns tend to decrease the counts, although, paradoxically, the absence of governmental online monitoring of social media tends to also decrease these. With these results, the paper contributes to the blossoming disinformation research by modeling the impact of disinformation upon offline phenomenon. The contribution is important due to the various policy measures planned or already enacted.
The Multi-Modal Large Language Model (MLLM) refers to an extension of the Large Language Model (LLM) equipped with the capability to receive and infer multi-modal data. Spatial awareness stands as one of the crucial abilities of MLLM, encompassing diverse skills related to understanding spatial relationships among objects and between objects and the scene area. Industries such as autonomous driving, smart healthcare, robotics, virtual, and augmented reality heavily demand MLLM's spatial awareness capabilities. However, there exists a noticeable gap between the current spatial awareness capabilities of MLLM and the requirements set by human needs. To address this issue, this paper proposes using more precise spatial position information between objects to guide MLLM in providing more accurate responses to user-related inquiries. Specifically, for a particular multi-modal task, we utilize algorithms for acquiring geometric spatial information and scene graphs to obtain relevant geometric spatial information and scene details of objects involved in the query. Subsequently, based on this information, we direct MLLM to address spatial awareness-related queries posed by the user. Extensive experiments were conducted in benchmarks such as MME, MM-Vet, and other multi-modal large language models. The experimental results thoroughly confirm the efficacy of the proposed method in enhancing the spatial awareness tasks and associated tasks of MLLM.
The rapid advancement of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) necessitates the need to robustly evaluate these models. Among the established evaluation criteria, the Fr\'{e}chet Inception Distance (FID) has been widely adopted due to its conceptual simplicity, fast computation time, and strong correlation with human perception. However, FID has inherent limitations, mainly stemming from its assumption that feature embeddings follow a Gaussian distribution, and therefore can be defined by their first two moments. As this does not hold in practice, in this paper we explore the importance of third-moments in image feature data and use this information to define a new measure, which we call the Skew Inception Distance (SID). We prove that SID is a pseudometric on probability distributions, show how it extends FID, and present a practical method for its computation. Our numerical experiments support that SID either tracks with FID or, in some cases, aligns more closely with human perception when evaluating image features of ImageNet data.
Confidence intervals (CI) for the IPW estimators of the ATT and ATO might not always yield conservative CIs when using the 'robust sandwich variance' estimator. In this manuscript, we identify scenarios where this variance estimator can be employed to derive conservative CIs. Specifically, for the ATT, a conservative CI can be derived when there's a homogeneous treatment effect or the interaction effect surpasses the effect from the covariates alone. For the ATO, conservative CIs can be derived under certain conditions, such as when there are homogeneous treatment effects, when there exists significant treatment-confounder interactions, or when there's a large number of members in the control groups.
Imitation Learning (IL) is a promising paradigm for teaching robots to perform novel tasks using demonstrations. Most existing approaches for IL utilize neural networks (NN), however, these methods suffer from several well-known limitations: they 1) require large amounts of training data, 2) are hard to interpret, and 3) are hard to repair and adapt. There is an emerging interest in programmatic imitation learning (PIL), which offers significant promise in addressing the above limitations. In PIL, the learned policy is represented in a programming language, making it amenable to interpretation and repair. However, state-of-the-art PIL algorithms assume access to action labels and struggle to learn from noisy real-world demonstrations. In this paper, we propose PLUNDER, a novel PIL algorithm that integrates a probabilistic program synthesizer in an iterative Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework to address these shortcomings. Unlike existing PIL approaches, PLUNDER synthesizes probabilistic programmatic policies that are particularly well-suited for modeling the uncertainties inherent in real-world demonstrations. Our approach leverages an EM loop to simultaneously infer the missing action labels and the most likely probabilistic policy. We benchmark PLUNDER against several established IL techniques, and demonstrate its superiority across five challenging imitation learning tasks under noise. PLUNDER policies achieve 95% accuracy in matching the given demonstrations, outperforming the next best baseline by 19%. Additionally, policies generated by PLUNDER successfully complete the tasks 17% more frequently than the nearest baseline.
Counterfactual inference aims to answer retrospective "what if" questions and thus belongs to the most fine-grained type of inference in Pearl's causality ladder. Existing methods for counterfactual inference with continuous outcomes aim at point identification and thus make strong and unnatural assumptions about the underlying structural causal model. In this paper, we relax these assumptions and aim at partial counterfactual identification of continuous outcomes, i.e., when the counterfactual query resides in an ignorance interval with informative bounds. We prove that, in general, the ignorance interval of the counterfactual queries has non-informative bounds, already when functions of structural causal models are continuously differentiable. As a remedy, we propose a novel sensitivity model called Curvature Sensitivity Model. This allows us to obtain informative bounds by bounding the curvature of level sets of the functions. We further show that existing point counterfactual identification methods are special cases of our Curvature Sensitivity Model when the bound of the curvature is set to zero. We then propose an implementation of our Curvature Sensitivity Model in the form of a novel deep generative model, which we call Augmented Pseudo-Invertible Decoder. Our implementation employs (i) residual normalizing flows with (ii) variational augmentations. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our Augmented Pseudo-Invertible Decoder. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first partial identification model for Markovian structural causal models with continuous outcomes.
The Gaussianity assumption has been consistently criticized as a main limitation of the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) despite its efficiency in computational modeling. In this paper, we propose a new approach that expands the model capacity (i.e., expressive power of distributional family) without sacrificing the computational advantages of the VAE framework. Our VAE model's decoder is composed of an infinite mixture of asymmetric Laplace distribution, which possesses general distribution fitting capabilities for continuous variables. Our model is represented by a special form of a nonparametric M-estimator for estimating general quantile functions, and we theoretically establish the relevance between the proposed model and quantile estimation. We apply the proposed model to synthetic data generation, and particularly, our model demonstrates superiority in easily adjusting the level of data privacy.
Objective: Sleep spindles contain crucial brain dynamics information. We introduce the novel non-linear time-frequency analysis tool 'Concentration of Frequency and Time' (ConceFT) to create an interpretable automated algorithm for sleep spindle annotation in EEG data and to measure spindle instantaneous frequencies (IFs). Methods: ConceFT effectively reduces stochastic EEG influence, enhancing spindle visibility in the time-frequency representation. Our automated spindle detection algorithm, ConceFT-Spindle (ConceFT-S), is compared to A7 (non-deep learning) and SUMO (deep learning) using Dream and MASS benchmark databases. We also quantify spindle IF dynamics. Results: ConceFT-S achieves F1 scores of 0.749 in Dream and 0.786 in MASS, which is equivalent to or surpass A7 and SUMO with statistical significance. We reveal that spindle IF is generally nonlinear. Conclusion: ConceFT offers an accurate, interpretable EEG-based sleep spindle detection algorithm and enables spindle IF quantification.
Recently, Mutual Information (MI) has attracted attention in bounding the generalization error of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). However, it is intractable to accurately estimate the MI in DNNs, thus most previous works have to relax the MI bound, which in turn weakens the information theoretic explanation for generalization. To address the limitation, this paper introduces a probabilistic representation of DNNs for accurately estimating the MI. Leveraging the proposed MI estimator, we validate the information theoretic explanation for generalization, and derive a tighter generalization bound than the state-of-the-art relaxations.
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are a special type of Neural Networks, which have shown state-of-the-art results on various competitive benchmarks. The powerful learning ability of deep CNN is largely achieved with the use of multiple non-linear feature extraction stages that can automatically learn hierarchical representation from the data. Availability of a large amount of data and improvements in the hardware processing units have accelerated the research in CNNs and recently very interesting deep CNN architectures are reported. The recent race in deep CNN architectures for achieving high performance on the challenging benchmarks has shown that the innovative architectural ideas, as well as parameter optimization, can improve the CNN performance on various vision-related tasks. In this regard, different ideas in the CNN design have been explored such as use of different activation and loss functions, parameter optimization, regularization, and restructuring of processing units. However, the major improvement in representational capacity is achieved by the restructuring of the processing units. Especially, the idea of using a block as a structural unit instead of a layer is gaining substantial appreciation. This survey thus focuses on the intrinsic taxonomy present in the recently reported CNN architectures and consequently, classifies the recent innovations in CNN architectures into seven different categories. These seven categories are based on spatial exploitation, depth, multi-path, width, feature map exploitation, channel boosting and attention. Additionally, it covers the elementary understanding of the CNN components and sheds light on the current challenges and applications of CNNs.
Within the rapidly developing Internet of Things (IoT), numerous and diverse physical devices, Edge devices, Cloud infrastructure, and their quality of service requirements (QoS), need to be represented within a unified specification in order to enable rapid IoT application development, monitoring, and dynamic reconfiguration. But heterogeneities among different configuration knowledge representation models pose limitations for acquisition, discovery and curation of configuration knowledge for coordinated IoT applications. This paper proposes a unified data model to represent IoT resource configuration knowledge artifacts. It also proposes IoT-CANE (Context-Aware recommendatioN systEm) to facilitate incremental knowledge acquisition and declarative context driven knowledge recommendation.