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By exploiting the theory of skew-symmetric distributions, we generalise existing results in sensitivity analysis by providing the analytic expression of the bias induced by marginalization over an unobserved continuous confounder in a logistic regression model. The expression is approximated and mimics Cochran's formula under some simplifying assumptions. Other link functions and error distributions are also considered. A simulation study is performed to assess its properties. The derivations can also be applied in causal mediation analysis, thereby enlarging the number of circumstances where simple parametric formulations can be used to evaluate causal direct and indirect effects. Standard errors of the causal effect estimators are provided via the first-order Delta method. Simulations show that our proposed estimators perform equally well as others based on numerical methods and that the additional interpretability of the explicit formulas does not compromise their precision. The new estimator has been applied to measure the effect of humidity on upper airways diseases mediated by the presence of common aeroallergens in the air.

We consider the multiple testing of the general regression framework aiming at studying the relationship between a univariate response and a p-dimensional predictor. To test the hypothesis of the effect of each predictor, we construct an Angular Balanced Statistic (ABS) based on the estimator of the sliced inverse regression without assuming a model of the conditional distribution of the response. According to the developed limiting distribution results in this paper, we have shown that ABS is asymptotically symmetric with respect to zero under the null hypothesis. We then propose a Model-free multiple Testing procedure using Angular balanced statistics (MTA) and show theoretically that the false discovery rate of this method is less than or equal to a designated level asymptotically. Numerical evidence has shown that the MTA method is much more powerful than its alternatives, subject to the control of the false discovery rate.

Federated bilevel optimization has attracted increasing attention due to emerging machine learning and communication applications. The biggest challenge lies in computing the gradient of the upper-level objective function (i.e., hypergradient) in the federated setting due to the nonlinear and distributed construction of a series of global Hessian matrices. In this paper, we propose a novel communication-efficient federated hypergradient estimator via aggregated iterative differentiation (AggITD). AggITD is simple to implement and significantly reduces the communication cost by conducting the federated hypergradient estimation and the lower-level optimization simultaneously. We show that the proposed AggITD-based algorithm achieves the same sample complexity as existing approximate implicit differentiation (AID)-based approaches with much fewer communication rounds in the presence of data heterogeneity. Our results also shed light on the great advantage of ITD over AID in the federated/distributed hypergradient estimation. This differs from the comparison in the non-distributed bilevel optimization, where ITD is less efficient than AID. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the great effectiveness and communication efficiency of the proposed method.

This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.

In statistical network analysis it is common to observe so called interaction data. Such data is characterized by actors forming the vertices and interacting along edges of the network, where edges are randomly formed and dissolved over the observation horizon. In addition covariates are observed and the goal is to model the impact of the covariates on the interactions. We distinguish two types of covariates: global, system-wide covariates (i.e. covariates taking the same value for all individuals, such as seasonality) and local, dyadic covariates modeling interactions between two individuals in the network. Existing continuous time network models are extended to allow for comparing a completely parametric model and a model that is parametric only in the local covariates but has a global non-parametric time component. This allows, for instance, to test whether global time dynamics can be explained by simple global covariates like weather, seasonality etc. The procedure is applied to a bike-sharing network by using weather and weekdays as global covariates and distances between the bike stations as local covariates.

Recently, diffusion models have achieved remarkable performance in data generation, e.g., generating high-quality images. Nevertheless, chemistry molecules often have complex non-Euclidean spatial structures, with the behavior changing dynamically and unpredictably. Most existing diffusion models highly rely on computing the probability distribution, i.e., Gaussian distribution, in Euclidean space, which cannot capture internal non-Euclidean structures of molecules, especially the hierarchical structures of the implicit manifold surface represented by molecules. It has been observed that the complex hierarchical structures in hyperbolic embedding space become more prominent and easier to be captured. In order to leverage both the data generation power of diffusion models and the strong capability to extract complex geometric features of hyperbolic embedding, we propose to extend the diffusion model to hyperbolic manifolds for molecule generation, namely, Hyperbolic Graph Diffusion Model (HGDM). The proposed HGDM employs a hyperbolic variational autoencoder to generate the hyperbolic hidden representation of nodes and then a score-based hyperbolic graph neural network is used to learn the distribution in hyperbolic space. Numerical experimental results show that the proposed HGDM achieves higher performance on several molecular datasets, compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Neural network compression has been an increasingly important subject, due to its practical implications in terms of reducing the computational requirements and its theoretical implications, as there is an explicit connection between compressibility and the generalization error. Recent studies have shown that the choice of the hyperparameters of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) can have an effect on the compressibility of the learned parameter vector. Even though these results have shed some light on the role of the training dynamics over compressibility, they relied on unverifiable assumptions and the resulting theory does not provide a practical guideline due to its implicitness. In this study, we propose a simple modification for SGD, such that the outputs of the algorithm will be provably compressible without making any nontrivial assumptions. We consider a one-hidden-layer neural network trained with SGD and we inject additive heavy-tailed noise to the iterates at each iteration. We then show that, for any compression rate, there exists a level of overparametrization (i.e., the number of hidden units), such that the output of the algorithm will be compressible with high probability. To achieve this result, we make two main technical contributions: (i) we build on a recent study on stochastic analysis and prove a 'propagation of chaos' result with improved rates for a class of heavy-tailed stochastic differential equations, and (ii) we derive strong-error estimates for their Euler discretization. We finally illustrate our approach on experiments, where the results suggest that the proposed approach achieves compressibility with a slight compromise from the training and test error.

Message passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide a powerful modeling framework for relational data. However, the expressive power of existing GNNs is upper-bounded by the 1-Weisfeiler-Lehman (1-WL) graph isomorphism test, which means GNNs that are not able to predict node clustering coefficients and shortest path distances, and cannot differentiate between different d-regular graphs. Here we develop a class of message passing GNNs, named Identity-aware Graph Neural Networks (ID-GNNs), with greater expressive power than the 1-WL test. ID-GNN offers a minimal but powerful solution to limitations of existing GNNs. ID-GNN extends existing GNN architectures by inductively considering nodes' identities during message passing. To embed a given node, ID-GNN first extracts the ego network centered at the node, then conducts rounds of heterogeneous message passing, where different sets of parameters are applied to the center node than to other surrounding nodes in the ego network. We further propose a simplified but faster version of ID-GNN that injects node identity information as augmented node features. Altogether, both versions of ID-GNN represent general extensions of message passing GNNs, where experiments show that transforming existing GNNs to ID-GNNs yields on average 40% accuracy improvement on challenging node, edge, and graph property prediction tasks; 3% accuracy improvement on node and graph classification benchmarks; and 15% ROC AUC improvement on real-world link prediction tasks. Additionally, ID-GNNs demonstrate improved or comparable performance over other task-specific graph networks.

In many important graph data processing applications the acquired information includes both node features and observations of the graph topology. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are designed to exploit both sources of evidence but they do not optimally trade-off their utility and integrate them in a manner that is also universal. Here, universality refers to independence on homophily or heterophily graph assumptions. We address these issues by introducing a new Generalized PageRank (GPR) GNN architecture that adaptively learns the GPR weights so as to jointly optimize node feature and topological information extraction, regardless of the extent to which the node labels are homophilic or heterophilic. Learned GPR weights automatically adjust to the node label pattern, irrelevant on the type of initialization, and thereby guarantee excellent learning performance for label patterns that are usually hard to handle. Furthermore, they allow one to avoid feature over-smoothing, a process which renders feature information nondiscriminative, without requiring the network to be shallow. Our accompanying theoretical analysis of the GPR-GNN method is facilitated by novel synthetic benchmark datasets generated by the so-called contextual stochastic block model. We also compare the performance of our GNN architecture with that of several state-of-the-art GNNs on the problem of node-classification, using well-known benchmark homophilic and heterophilic datasets. The results demonstrate that GPR-GNN offers significant performance improvement compared to existing techniques on both synthetic and benchmark data.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.