Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations (PDEs) has emerged as a promising approach for deriving governing physics when domain knowledge about observed data is limited. Despite recent progress, the identification of governing equations and their parametric dependencies using conventional information criteria remains challenging in noisy situations, as the criteria tend to select overly complex PDEs. In this paper, we introduce an extension of the uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC), which is adapted to solve parametric PDE discovery problems efficiently without requiring computationally expensive PDE simulations. This extended UBIC uses quantified PDE uncertainty over different temporal or spatial points to prevent overfitting in model selection. The UBIC is computed with data transformation based on power spectral densities to discover the governing parametric PDE that truly captures qualitative features in frequency space with a few significant terms and their parametric dependencies (i.e., the varying PDE coefficients), evaluated with confidence intervals. Numerical experiments on canonical PDEs demonstrate that our extended UBIC can identify the true number of terms and their varying coefficients accurately, even in the presence of noise. The code is available at \url{//github.com/Pongpisit-Thanasutives/parametric-discovery}.
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Neutron noise analysis is a predominant technique for fissile matter identification with passive methods. Quantifying the uncertainties associated with the estimated nuclear parameters is crucial for decision-making. A conservative uncertainty quantification procedure is possible by solving a Bayesian inverse problem with the help of statistical surrogate models but generally leads to large uncertainties due to the surrogate models' errors. In this work, we develop two methods for robust uncertainty quantification in neutron and gamma noise analysis based on the resolution of Bayesian inverse problems. We show that the uncertainties can be reduced by including information on gamma correlations. The investigation of a joint analysis of the neutron and gamma observations is also conducted with the help of active learning strategies to fine-tune surrogate models. We test our methods on a model of the SILENE reactor core, using simulated and real-world measurements.
High-dimensional logistic regression with missing data: Imputation, regularization, and universality
We study high-dimensional, ridge-regularized logistic regression in a setting in which the covariates may be missing or corrupted by additive noise. When both the covariates and the additive corruptions are independent and normally distributed, we provide exact characterizations of both the prediction error as well as the estimation error. Moreover, we show that these characterizations are universal: as long as the entries of the data matrix satisfy a set of independence and moment conditions, our guarantees continue to hold. Universality, in turn, enables the detailed study of several imputation-based strategies when the covariates are missing completely at random. We ground our study by comparing the performance of these strategies with the conjectured performance -- stemming from replica theory in statistical physics -- of the Bayes optimal procedure. Our analysis yields several insights including: (i) a distinction between single imputation and a simple variant of multiple imputation and (ii) that adding a simple ridge regularization term to single-imputed logistic regression can yield an estimator whose prediction error is nearly indistinguishable from the Bayes optimal prediction error. We supplement our findings with extensive numerical experiments.
Exponential Runge-Kutta methods for semilinear ordinary differential equations can be extended to abstract differential equations, defined on Banach spaces. Thanks to the sun-star theory, both delay differential equations and renewal equations can be recast as abstract differential equations, which motivates the present work. The result is a general approach that allows us to define the methods explicitly and analyze their convergence properties in a unifying way.
Finding eigenvalue distributions for a number of sparse random matrix ensembles can be reduced to solving nonlinear integral equations of the Hammerstein type. While a systematic mathematical theory of such equations exists, it has not been previously applied to sparse matrix problems. We close this gap in the literature by showing how one can employ numerical solutions of Hammerstein equations to accurately recover the spectra of adjacency matrices and Laplacians of random graphs. While our treatment focuses on random graphs for concreteness, the methodology has broad applications to more general sparse random matrices.
We obtain rates of convergence of numerical approximations of linear parabolic evolution equations. Our estimates extend known results like Theorem 3.5 in \cite{thomee} to more general equations and accommodate more advanced numerical approximation techniques. As an example, we consider parabolic equations on surfaces, and surface finite element approximations.
To avoid ineffective collisions between the equilibrium states, the hybrid method with deviational particles (HDP) has been proposed to integrate the Fokker-Planck-Landau system, while leaving a new issue in sampling deviational particles from the high-dimensional source term. In this paper, we present an adaptive sampling (AS) strategy that first adaptively reconstructs a piecewise constant approximation of the source term based on sequential clustering via discrepancy estimation, and then samples deviational particles directly from the resulting adaptive piecewise constant function without rejection. The mixture discrepancy, which can be easily calculated thanks to its explicit analytical expression, is employed as a measure of uniformity instead of the star discrepancy the calculation of which is NP-hard. The resulting method, dubbed the HDP-AS method, runs approximately ten times faster than the HDP method while keeping the same accuracy in the Landau damping, two stream instability, bump on tail and Rosenbluth's test problem.
In causal inference on directed acyclic graphs, the orientation of edges is in general only recovered up to Markov equivalence classes. We study Markov equivalence classes of uniformly random directed acyclic graphs. Using a tower decomposition, we show that the ratio between the number of Markov equivalence classes and directed acyclic graphs approaches a positive constant when the number of sites goes to infinity. For a typical directed acyclic graph, the expected number of elements in its Markov equivalence class remains bounded. More precisely, we prove that for a uniformly chosen directed acyclic graph, the size of its Markov equivalence class has super-polynomial tails.
The preservation of stochastic orders by distortion functions has become a topic of increasing interest in the reliability analysis of coherent systems. The reason of this interest is that the reliability function of a coherent system with identically distributed components can be represented as a distortion function of the common reliability function of the components. In this framework, we study the preservation of the excess wealth order, the total time on test transform order, the decreasing mean residual live order, and the quantile mean inactivity time order by distortion functions. The results are applied to study the preservation of these stochastic orders under the formation of coherent systems with exchangeable components.
In this work, we develop Crank-Nicolson-type iterative decoupled algorithms for a three-field formulation of Biot's consolidation model using total pressure. We begin by constructing an equivalent fully implicit coupled algorithm using the standard Crank-Nicolson method for the three-field formulation of Biot's model. Employing an iterative decoupled scheme to decompose the resulting coupled system, we derive two distinctive forms of Crank-Nicolson-type iterative decoupled algorithms based on the order of temporal computation and iteration: a time-stepping iterative decoupled algorithm and a global-in-time iterative decoupled algorithm. Notably, the proposed global-in-time algorithm supports a partially parallel-in-time feature. Capitalizing on the convergence properties of the iterative decoupled scheme, both algorithms exhibit second-order time accuracy and unconditional stability. Through numerical experiments, we validate theoretical predictions and demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of these novel approaches.
We study the decidability and complexity of non-cooperative rational synthesis problem (abbreviated as NCRSP) for some classes of probabilistic strategies. We show that NCRSP for stationary strategies and Muller objectives is in 3-EXPTIME, and if we restrict the strategies of environment players to be positional, NCRSP becomes NEXPSPACE solvable. On the other hand, NCRSP_>, which is a variant of NCRSP, is shown to be undecidable even for pure finite-state strategies and terminal reachability objectives. Finally, we show that NCRSP becomes EXPTIME solvable if we restrict the memory of a strategy to be the most recently visited t vertices where t is linear in the size of the game.
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