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This paper presents a concise introduction to a generic theoretical framework termed Bayesian Dynamic Ensemble of Multiple Models (BDEMM), which has been widely used for robust sequential online prediction with time series data. This framework has three major features: (1) it employs a model pool, rather than a single model, to capture possible statistical regularities underlying the data; (2) the model pool consists of multiple weighted candidate models, wherein the model weights are adapted online to capture possible temporal evolutions of the data; (3) the adaptation for the model weights follows Bayesian formalism. These features together define BDEMM. To make the introduction comprehensive, we describe BDEMM from five perspectives, namely the basic theories, its different forms of algorithmic implementations, its applications, its connections to related research, open resources for algorithm implementations, followed by a discussion of practical issues for applying it and some open problems that are worth further research.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · MoDELS · 小樣本學習 · 學習器 · 變換 ·
2023 年 3 月 2 日

Clinical prediction is an essential task in the healthcare industry. However, the recent success of transformers, on which large language models are built, has not been extended to this domain. In this research, we explore the use of transformers and language models in prognostic prediction for immunotherapy using real-world patients' clinical data and molecular profiles. This paper investigates the potential of transformers to improve clinical prediction compared to conventional machine learning approaches and addresses the challenge of few-shot learning in predicting rare disease areas. The study benchmarks the efficacy of baselines and language models on prognostic prediction across multiple cancer types and investigates the impact of different pretrained language models under few-shot regimes. The results demonstrate significant improvements in accuracy and highlight the potential of NLP in clinical research to improve early detection and intervention for different diseases.

Compared to the great progress of large-scale vision transformers (ViTs) in recent years, large-scale models based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are still in an early state. This work presents a new large-scale CNN-based foundation model, termed InternImage, which can obtain the gain from increasing parameters and training data like ViTs. Different from the recent CNNs that focus on large dense kernels, InternImage takes deformable convolution as the core operator, so that our model not only has the large effective receptive field required for downstream tasks such as detection and segmentation, but also has the adaptive spatial aggregation conditioned by input and task information. As a result, the proposed InternImage reduces the strict inductive bias of traditional CNNs and makes it possible to learn stronger and more robust patterns with large-scale parameters from massive data like ViTs. The effectiveness of our model is proven on challenging benchmarks including ImageNet, COCO, and ADE20K. It is worth mentioning that InternImage-H achieved a new record 65.4 mAP on COCO test-dev and 62.9 mIoU on ADE20K, outperforming current leading CNNs and ViTs. The code will be released at //github.com/OpenGVLab/InternImage.

We study the secretary problem in which rank-ordered lists are generated by the Mallows model and the goal is to identify the highest-ranked candidate through a sequential interview process which does not allow rejected candidates to be revisited. The main difference between our formulation and existing models is that, during the selection process, we are given a fixed number of opportunities to query an infallible expert whether the current candidate is the highest-ranked or not. If the response is positive, the selection process terminates, otherwise, the search continues until a new potentially optimal candidate is identified. Our optimal interview strategy, as well as the expected number of candidates interviewed and the expected number of queries used, can be determined through the evaluation of well-defined recurrence relations. Specifically, if we are allowed to query $s-1$ times and to make a final selection without querying (thus, making $s$ selections in total) then the optimum scheme is characterized by $s$ thresholds that depend on the parameter $\theta$ of the Mallows distribution but are independent on the maximum number of queries.

Dynamic benchmarks interweave model fitting and data collection in an attempt to mitigate the limitations of static benchmarks. In contrast to an extensive theoretical and empirical study of the static setting, the dynamic counterpart lags behind due to limited empirical studies and no apparent theoretical foundation to date. Responding to this deficit, we initiate a theoretical study of dynamic benchmarking. We examine two realizations, one capturing current practice and the other modeling more complex settings. In the first model, where data collection and model fitting alternate sequentially, we prove that model performance improves initially but can stall after only three rounds. Label noise arising from, for instance, annotator disagreement leads to even stronger negative results. Our second model generalizes the first to the case where data collection and model fitting have a hierarchical dependency structure. We show that this design guarantees strictly more progress than the first, albeit at a significant increase in complexity. We support our theoretical analysis by simulating dynamic benchmarks on two popular datasets. These results illuminate the benefits and practical limitations of dynamic benchmarking, providing both a theoretical foundation and a causal explanation for observed bottlenecks in empirical work.

Recently, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have significantly advanced the performance of machine learning tasks on graphs. However, this technological breakthrough makes people wonder: how does a GNN make such decisions, and can we trust its prediction with high confidence? When it comes to some critical fields, such as biomedicine, where making wrong decisions can have severe consequences, it is crucial to interpret the inner working mechanisms of GNNs before applying them. In this paper, we propose a model-agnostic model-level explanation method for different GNNs that follow the message passing scheme, GNNInterpreter, to explain the high-level decision-making process of the GNN model. More specifically, GNNInterpreter learns a probabilistic generative graph distribution that produces the most discriminative graph pattern the GNN tries to detect when making a certain prediction by optimizing a novel objective function specifically designed for the model-level explanation for GNNs. Compared to existing works, GNNInterpreter is more flexible and computationally efficient in generating explanation graphs with different types of node and edge features, without introducing another blackbox or requiring manually specified domain-specific rules. In addition, the experimental studies conducted on four different datasets demonstrate that the explanation graphs generated by GNNInterpreter match the desired graph pattern if the model is ideal; otherwise, potential model pitfalls can be revealed by the explanation.

Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.

This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.

Dynamic neural network is an emerging research topic in deep learning. Compared to static models which have fixed computational graphs and parameters at the inference stage, dynamic networks can adapt their structures or parameters to different inputs, leading to notable advantages in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, adaptiveness, etc. In this survey, we comprehensively review this rapidly developing area by dividing dynamic networks into three main categories: 1) instance-wise dynamic models that process each instance with data-dependent architectures or parameters; 2) spatial-wise dynamic networks that conduct adaptive computation with respect to different spatial locations of image data and 3) temporal-wise dynamic models that perform adaptive inference along the temporal dimension for sequential data such as videos and texts. The important research problems of dynamic networks, e.g., architecture design, decision making scheme, optimization technique and applications, are reviewed systematically. Finally, we discuss the open problems in this field together with interesting future research directions.

Meta-learning extracts the common knowledge acquired from learning different tasks and uses it for unseen tasks. It demonstrates a clear advantage on tasks that have insufficient training data, e.g., few-shot learning. In most meta-learning methods, tasks are implicitly related via the shared model or optimizer. In this paper, we show that a meta-learner that explicitly relates tasks on a graph describing the relations of their output dimensions (e.g., classes) can significantly improve the performance of few-shot learning. This type of graph is usually free or cheap to obtain but has rarely been explored in previous works. We study the prototype based few-shot classification, in which a prototype is generated for each class, such that the nearest neighbor search between the prototypes produces an accurate classification. We introduce "Gated Propagation Network (GPN)", which learns to propagate messages between prototypes of different classes on the graph, so that learning the prototype of each class benefits from the data of other related classes. In GPN, an attention mechanism is used for the aggregation of messages from neighboring classes, and a gate is deployed to choose between the aggregated messages and the message from the class itself. GPN is trained on a sequence of tasks from many-shot to few-shot generated by subgraph sampling. During training, it is able to reuse and update previously achieved prototypes from the memory in a life-long learning cycle. In experiments, we change the training-test discrepancy and test task generation settings for thorough evaluations. GPN outperforms recent meta-learning methods on two benchmark datasets in all studied cases.

Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.

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