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In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting armed conflicts, positive and negative log-changes in monthly fatalities represent escalation and de-escalation, respectively, and have very different implications. In the ViEWS forecasting challenge, a prediction competition on state-based violence, a novel evaluation score called targeted absolute deviation with direction augmentation (TADDA) has therefore been suggested, which accounts for both for the sign and magnitude of log-changes. While it has a straightforward intuitive motivation, the empirical results of the challenge show that a no-change model always predicting a log-change of zero outperforms all submitted forecasting models under the TADDA score. We provide a statistical explanation for this phenomenon. Analyzing the properties of TADDA, we find that in order to achieve good scores, forecasters often have an incentive to predict no or only modest log-changes. In particular, there is often an incentive to report conservative point predictions considerably closer to zero than the forecaster's actual predictive median or mean. In an empirical application, we demonstrate that a no-change model can be improved upon by tailoring predictions to the particularities of the TADDA score. We conclude by outlining some alternative scoring concepts.

In this paper we study the type IV Knorr Held space time models. Such models typically apply intrinsic Markov random fields and constraints are imposed for identifiability. INLA is an efficient inference tool for such models where constraints are dealt with through a conditioning by kriging approach. When the number of spatial and/or temporal time points become large, it becomes computationally expensive to fit such models, partly due to the number of constraints involved. We propose a new approach, HyMiK, dividing constraints into two separate sets where one part is treated through a mixed effect approach while the other one is approached by the standard conditioning by kriging method, resulting in a more efficient procedure for dealing with constraints. The new approach is easy to apply based on existing implementations of INLA. We run the model on simulated data, on a real data set containing dengue fever cases in Brazil and another real data set of confirmed positive test cases of Covid-19 in the counties of Norway. For all cases we get very similar results when comparing the new approach with the tradition one while at the same time obtaining a significant increase in computational speed, varying on a factor from 3 to 23, depending on the sizes of the data sets.

PCA-Net is a recently proposed neural operator architecture which combines principal component analysis (PCA) with neural networks to approximate operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The present work develops approximation theory for this approach, improving and significantly extending previous work in this direction: First, a novel universal approximation result is derived, under minimal assumptions on the underlying operator and the data-generating distribution. Then, two potential obstacles to efficient operator learning with PCA-Net are identified, and made precise through lower complexity bounds; the first relates to the complexity of the output distribution, measured by a slow decay of the PCA eigenvalues. The other obstacle relates to the inherent complexity of the space of operators between infinite-dimensional input and output spaces, resulting in a rigorous and quantifiable statement of the curse of dimensionality. In addition to these lower bounds, upper complexity bounds are derived. A suitable smoothness criterion is shown to ensure an algebraic decay of the PCA eigenvalues. Furthermore, it is shown that PCA-Net can overcome the general curse of dimensionality for specific operators of interest, arising from the Darcy flow and the Navier-Stokes equations.

Let $\mathcal{T}$ be a set of $n$ flat (planar) semi-algebraic regions in $\mathbb{R}^3$ of constant complexity (e.g., triangles, disks), which we call plates. We wish to preprocess $\mathcal{T}$ into a data structure so that for a query object $\gamma$, which is also a plate, we can quickly answer various intersection queries, such as detecting whether $\gamma$ intersects any plate of $\mathcal{T}$, reporting all the plates intersected by $\gamma$, or counting them. We also consider two simpler cases of this general setting: (i) the input objects are plates and the query objects are constant-degree parametrized algebraic arcs in $\mathbb{R}^3$ (arcs, for short), or (ii) the input objects are arcs and the query objects are plates in $\mathbb{R}^3$. Besides being interesting in their own right, the data structures for these two special cases form the building blocks for handling the general case. By combining the polynomial-partitioning technique with additional tools from real algebraic geometry, we present many different data structures for intersection queries, which also provide trade-offs between their size and query time. The performance of these data structures depends on the complexity of the input and query objects. For example, if $\mathcal{T}$ is a set of plates and the query objects are algebraic arcs, we obtain a data structure that uses $O^*(n^{4/3})$ storage (where the $O^*(\cdot)$ notation hides subpolynomial factors) and answers an arc-intersection query in $O^*(n^{2/3})$ time. Alternatively, for a parameter $s\in [n^{4/3}, n^t]$ where $t\ge 3$ is the number of real parameters needed to specify a query arc, the query time can be decreased to $O^*((n^t/s)^{\tfrac{2}{3(t-1)}})$ by increasing the storage to $O^*(s)$.

In learning theory, a standard assumption is that the data is generated from a finite mixture model. But what happens when the number of components is not known in advance? The problem of estimating the number of components, also called model selection, is important in its own right but there are essentially no known efficient algorithms with provable guarantees let alone ones that can tolerate adversarial corruptions. In this work, we study the problem of robust model selection for univariate Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). Given $\textsf{poly}(k/\epsilon)$ samples from a distribution that is $\epsilon$-close in TV distance to a GMM with $k$ components, we can construct a GMM with $\widetilde{O}(k)$ components that approximates the distribution to within $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon)$ in $\textsf{poly}(k/\epsilon)$ time. Thus we are able to approximately determine the minimum number of components needed to fit the distribution within a logarithmic factor. Prior to our work, the only known algorithms for learning arbitrary univariate GMMs either output significantly more than $k$ components (e.g. $k/\epsilon^2$ components for kernel density estimates) or run in time exponential in $k$. Moreover, by adapting our techniques we obtain similar results for reconstructing Fourier-sparse signals.

Active Queue Management (AQM) aims to prevent bufferbloat and serial drops in router and switch FIFO packet buffers that usually employ drop-tail queueing. AQM describes methods to send proactive feedback to TCP flow sources to regulate their rate using selective packet drops or markings. Traditionally, AQM policies relied on heuristics to approximately provide Quality of Service (QoS) such as a target delay for a given flow. These heuristics are usually based on simple network and TCP control models together with the monitored buffer filling. A primary drawback of these heuristics is that their way of accounting flow characteristics into the feedback mechanism and the corresponding effect on the state of congestion are not well understood. In this work, we show that taking a probabilistic model for the flow rates and the dequeueing pattern, a Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) can be formulated to obtain an optimal packet-dropping policy. This policy-based AQM, named PAQMAN, takes into account a steady-state model of TCP and a target delay for the flows. Additionally, we present an inference algorithm that builds on TCP congestion control in order to calibrate the model parameters governing underlying network conditions. Using simulation, we show that the prescribed AQM yields comparable throughput to state-of-the-art AQM algorithms while reducing delays significantly.

This paper attempts to characterize the kinds of physical scenarios in which an online learning-based cognitive radar is expected to reliably outperform a fixed rule-based waveform selection strategy, as well as the converse. We seek general insights through an examination of two decision-making scenarios, namely dynamic spectrum access and multiple-target tracking. The radar scene is characterized by inducing a state-space model and examining the structure of its underlying Markov state transition matrix, in terms of entropy rate and diagonality. It is found that entropy rate is a strong predictor of online learning-based waveform selection, while diagonality is a better predictor of fixed rule-based waveform selection. We show that these measures can be used to predict first and second-order stochastic dominance relationships, which can allow system designers to make use of simple decision rules instead of more cumbersome learning approaches under certain conditions. We validate our findings through numerical results for each application and provide guidelines for future implementations.

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.