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This paper deals with robust inference for parametric copula models. Estimation using Canonical Maximum Likelihood might be unstable, especially in the presence of outliers. We propose to use a procedure based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) principle. We derive non-asymptotic oracle inequalities, consistency and asymptotic normality of this new estimator. In particular, the oracle inequality holds without any assumption on the copula family, and can be applied in the presence of outliers or under misspecification. Moreover, in our MMD framework, the statistical inference of copula models for which there exists no density with respect to the Lebesgue measure on $[0,1]^d$, as the Marshall-Olkin copula, becomes feasible. A simulation study shows the robustness of our new procedures, especially compared to pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation. An R package implementing the MMD estimator for copula models is available.

Multi-block CCA constructs linear relationships explaining coherent variations across multiple blocks of data. We view the multi-block CCA problem as finding leading generalized eigenvectors and propose to solve it via a proximal gradient descent algorithm with $\ell_1$ constraint for high dimensional data. In particular, we use a decaying sequence of constraints over proximal iterations, and show that the resulting estimate is rate-optimal under suitable assumptions. Although several previous works have demonstrated such optimality for the $\ell_0$ constrained problem using iterative approaches, the same level of theoretical understanding for the $\ell_1$ constrained formulation is still lacking. We also describe an easy-to-implement deflation procedure to estimate multiple eigenvectors sequentially. We compare our proposals to several existing methods whose implementations are available on R CRAN, and the proposed methods show competitive performances in both simulations and a real data example.

The detection and estimation of sinusoids is a fundamental signal processing task for many applications related to sensing and communications. While algorithms have been proposed for this setting, quantization is a critical, but often ignored modeling effect. In wireless communications, estimation with low resolution data converters is relevant for reduced power consumption in wideband receivers. Similarly, low resolution sampling in imaging and spectrum sensing allows for efficient data collection. In this work, we propose SignalNet, a neural network architecture that detects the number of sinusoids and estimates their parameters from quantized in-phase and quadrature samples. We incorporate signal reconstruction internally as domain knowledge within the network to enhance learning and surpass traditional algorithms in mean squared error and Chamfer error. We introduce a worst-case learning threshold for comparing the results of our network relative to the underlying data distributions. This threshold provides insight into why neural networks tend to outperform traditional methods and into the learned relationships between the input and output distributions. In simulation, we find that our algorithm is always able to surpass the threshold for three-bit data but often cannot exceed the threshold for one-bit data. We use the learning threshold to explain, in the one-bit case, how our estimators learn to minimize the distributional loss, rather than learn features from the data.

We consider a class of statistical estimation problems in which we are given a random data matrix ${\boldsymbol X}\in {\mathbb R}^{n\times d}$ (and possibly some labels ${\boldsymbol y}\in{\mathbb R}^n$) and would like to estimate a coefficient vector ${\boldsymbol \theta}\in{\mathbb R}^d$ (or possibly a constant number of such vectors). Special cases include low-rank matrix estimation and regularized estimation in generalized linear models (e.g., sparse regression). First order methods proceed by iteratively multiplying current estimates by ${\boldsymbol X}$ or its transpose. Examples include gradient descent or its accelerated variants. Celentano, Montanari, Wu proved that for any constant number of iterations (matrix vector multiplications), the optimal first order algorithm is a specific approximate message passing algorithm (known as `Bayes AMP'). The error of this estimator can be characterized in the high-dimensional asymptotics $n,d\to\infty$, $n/d\to\delta$, and provides a lower bound to the estimation error of any first order algorithm. Here we present a simpler proof of the same result, and generalize it to broader classes of data distributions and of first order algorithms, including algorithms with non-separable nonlinearities. Most importantly, the new proof technique does not require to construct an equivalent tree-structured estimation problem, and is therefore susceptible of a broader range of applications.

In this paper, we study the learning of safe policies in the setting of reinforcement learning problems. This is, we aim to control a Markov Decision Process (MDP) of which we do not know the transition probabilities, but we have access to sample trajectories through experience. We define safety as the agent remaining in a desired safe set with high probability during the operation time. We therefore consider a constrained MDP where the constraints are probabilistic. Since there is no straightforward way to optimize the policy with respect to the probabilistic constraint in a reinforcement learning framework, we propose an ergodic relaxation of the problem. The advantages of the proposed relaxation are threefold. (i) The safety guarantees are maintained in the case of episodic tasks and they are kept up to a given time horizon for continuing tasks. (ii) The constrained optimization problem despite its non-convexity has arbitrarily small duality gap if the parametrization of the policy is rich enough. (iii) The gradients of the Lagrangian associated with the safe-learning problem can be easily computed using standard policy gradient results and stochastic approximation tools. Leveraging these advantages, we establish that primal-dual algorithms are able to find policies that are safe and optimal. We test the proposed approach in a navigation task in a continuous domain. The numerical results show that our algorithm is capable of dynamically adapting the policy to the environment and the required safety levels.

Successful quantitative investment usually relies on precise predictions of the future movement of the stock price. Recently, machine learning based solutions have shown their capacity to give more accurate stock prediction and become indispensable components in modern quantitative investment systems. However, the i.i.d. assumption behind existing methods is inconsistent with the existence of diverse trading patterns in the stock market, which inevitably limits their ability to achieve better stock prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture, Temporal Routing Adaptor (TRA), to empower existing stock prediction models with the ability to model multiple stock trading patterns. Essentially, TRA is a lightweight module that consists of a set of independent predictors for learning multiple patterns as well as a router to dispatch samples to different predictors. Nevertheless, the lack of explicit pattern identifiers makes it quite challenging to train an effective TRA-based model. To tackle this challenge, we further design a learning algorithm based on Optimal Transport (OT) to obtain the optimal sample to predictor assignment and effectively optimize the router with such assignment through an auxiliary loss term. Experiments on the real-world stock ranking task show that compared to the state-of-the-art baselines, e.g., Attention LSTM and Transformer, the proposed method can improve information coefficient (IC) from 0.053 to 0.059 and 0.051 to 0.056 respectively. Our dataset and code used in this work are publicly available: //github.com/microsoft/qlib/tree/main/examples/benchmarks/TRA.

Several recent applications of optimal transport (OT) theory to machine learning have relied on regularization, notably entropy and the Sinkhorn algorithm. Because matrix-vector products are pervasive in the Sinkhorn algorithm, several works have proposed to \textit{approximate} kernel matrices appearing in its iterations using low-rank factors. Another route lies instead in imposing low-rank constraints on the feasible set of couplings considered in OT problems, with no approximations on cost nor kernel matrices. This route was first explored by Forrow et al., 2018, who proposed an algorithm tailored for the squared Euclidean ground cost, using a proxy objective that can be solved through the machinery of regularized 2-Wasserstein barycenters. Building on this, we introduce in this work a generic approach that aims at solving, in full generality, the OT problem under low-rank constraints with arbitrary costs. Our algorithm relies on an explicit factorization of low rank couplings as a product of \textit{sub-coupling} factors linked by a common marginal; similar to an NMF approach, we alternatively updates these factors. We prove the non-asymptotic stationary convergence of this algorithm and illustrate its efficiency on benchmark experiments.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a highly popular model-free reinforcement learning (RL) approach. However, in continuous state and actions spaces and a Gaussian policy -- common in computer animation and robotics -- PPO is prone to getting stuck in local optima. In this paper, we observe a tendency of PPO to prematurely shrink the exploration variance, which naturally leads to slow progress. Motivated by this, we borrow ideas from CMA-ES, a black-box optimization method designed for intelligent adaptive Gaussian exploration, to derive PPO-CMA, a novel proximal policy optimization approach that can expand the exploration variance on objective function slopes and shrink the variance when close to the optimum. This is implemented by using separate neural networks for policy mean and variance and training the mean and variance in separate passes. Our experiments demonstrate a clear improvement over vanilla PPO in many difficult OpenAI Gym MuJoCo tasks.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

This paper describes a suite of algorithms for constructing low-rank approximations of an input matrix from a random linear image of the matrix, called a sketch. These methods can preserve structural properties of the input matrix, such as positive-semidefiniteness, and they can produce approximations with a user-specified rank. The algorithms are simple, accurate, numerically stable, and provably correct. Moreover, each method is accompanied by an informative error bound that allows users to select parameters a priori to achieve a given approximation quality. These claims are supported by numerical experiments with real and synthetic data.