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The log odds ratio is a well-established metric for evaluating the association between binary outcome and exposure variables. Despite its widespread use, there has been limited discussion on how to summarize the log odds ratio as a function of confounders through averaging. To address this issue, we propose the Average Adjusted Association (AAA), which is a summary measure of association in a heterogeneous population, adjusted for observed confounders. To facilitate the use of it, we also develop efficient double/debiased machine learning (DML) estimators of the AAA. Our DML estimators use two equivalent forms of the efficient influence function, and are applicable in various sampling scenarios, including random sampling, outcome-based sampling, and exposure-based sampling. Through real data and simulations, we demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of our proposed estimators in measuring the AAA.

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We revisit the relation between two fundamental property testing models for bounded-degree directed graphs: the bidirectional model in which the algorithms are allowed to query both the outgoing edges and incoming edges of a vertex, and the unidirectional model in which only queries to the outgoing edges are allowed. Czumaj, Peng and Sohler [STOC 2016] showed that for directed graphs with both maximum indegree and maximum outdegree upper bounded by $d$, any property that can be tested with query complexity $O_{\varepsilon,d}(1)$ in the bidirectional model can be tested with $n^{1-\Omega_{\varepsilon,d}(1)}$ queries in the unidirectional model. In particular, if the proximity parameter $\varepsilon$ approaches $0$, then the query complexity of the transformed tester in the unidirectional model approaches $n$. It was left open if this transformation can be further improved or there exists any property that exhibits such an extreme separation. We prove that testing subgraph-freeness in which the subgraph contains $k$ source components, requires $\Omega(n^{1-\frac{1}{k}})$ queries in the unidirectional model. This directly gives the first explicit properties that exhibit an $O_{\varepsilon,d}(1)$ vs $\Omega(n^{1-f(\varepsilon,d)})$ separation of the query complexities between the bidirectional model and unidirectional model, where $f(\varepsilon,d)$ is a function that approaches $0$ as $\varepsilon$ approaches $0$. Furthermore, our lower bound also resolves a conjecture by Hellweg and Sohler [ESA 2012] on the query complexity of testing $k$-star-freeness.

Diffusion models (DMs) have recently been introduced in image deblurring and exhibited promising performance, particularly in terms of details reconstruction. However, the diffusion model requires a large number of inference iterations to recover the clean image from pure Gaussian noise, which consumes massive computational resources. Moreover, the distribution synthesized by the diffusion model is often misaligned with the target results, leading to restrictions in distortion-based metrics. To address the above issues, we propose the Hierarchical Integration Diffusion Model (HI-Diff), for realistic image deblurring. Specifically, we perform the DM in a highly compacted latent space to generate the prior feature for the deblurring process. The deblurring process is implemented by a regression-based method to obtain better distortion accuracy. Meanwhile, the highly compact latent space ensures the efficiency of the DM. Furthermore, we design the hierarchical integration module to fuse the prior into the regression-based model from multiple scales, enabling better generalization in complex blurry scenarios. Comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world blur datasets demonstrate that our HI-Diff outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Code and trained models are available at //github.com/zhengchen1999/HI-Diff.

The advancement of large language models (LLMs) brings notable improvements across various applications, while simultaneously raising concerns about potential private data exposure. One notable capability of LLMs is their ability to form associations between different pieces of information, but this raises concerns when it comes to personally identifiable information (PII). This paper delves into the association capabilities of language models, aiming to uncover the factors that influence their proficiency in associating information. Our study reveals that as models scale up, their capacity to associate entities/information intensifies, particularly when target pairs demonstrate shorter co-occurrence distances or higher co-occurrence frequencies. However, there is a distinct performance gap when associating commonsense knowledge versus PII, with the latter showing lower accuracy. Despite the proportion of accurately predicted PII being relatively small, LLMs still demonstrate the capability to predict specific instances of email addresses and phone numbers when provided with appropriate prompts. These findings underscore the potential risk to PII confidentiality posed by the evolving capabilities of LLMs, especially as they continue to expand in scale and power.

The model-X knockoffs framework provides a flexible tool for achieving finite-sample false discovery rate (FDR) control in variable selection in arbitrary dimensions without assuming any dependence structure of the response on covariates. It also completely bypasses the use of conventional p-values, making it especially appealing in high-dimensional nonlinear models. Existing works have focused on the setting of independent and identically distributed observations. Yet time series data is prevalent in practical applications in various fields such as economics and social sciences. This motivates the study of model-X knockoffs inference for time series data. In this paper, we make some initial attempt to establish the theoretical and methodological foundation for the model-X knockoffs inference for time series data. We suggest the method of time series knockoffs inference (TSKI) by exploiting the ideas of subsampling and e-values to address the difficulty caused by the serial dependence. We also generalize the robust knockoffs inference to the time series setting and relax the assumption of known covariate distribution required by model-X knockoffs, because such an assumption is overly stringent for time series data. We establish sufficient conditions under which TSKI achieves the asymptotic FDR control. Our technical analysis reveals the effects of serial dependence and unknown covariate distribution on the FDR control. We conduct power analysis of TSKI using the Lasso coefficient difference knockoff statistic under linear time series models. The finite-sample performance of TSKI is illustrated with several simulation examples and an economic inflation study.

Continuous normalizing flows are widely used in generative tasks, where a flow network transports from a data distribution $P$ to a normal distribution. A flow model that can transport from $P$ to an arbitrary $Q$, where both $P$ and $Q$ are accessible via finite samples, would be of various application interests, particularly in the recently developed telescoping density ratio estimation (DRE) which calls for the construction of intermediate densities to bridge between $P$ and $Q$. In this work, we propose such a ``Q-malizing flow'' by a neural-ODE model which is trained to transport invertibly from $P$ to $Q$ (and vice versa) from empirical samples and is regularized by minimizing the transport cost. The trained flow model allows us to perform infinitesimal DRE along the time-parametrized $\log$-density by training an additional continuous-time flow network using classification loss, which estimates the time-partial derivative of the $\log$-density. Integrating the time-score network along time provides a telescopic DRE between $P$ and $Q$ that is more stable than a one-step DRE. The effectiveness of the proposed model is empirically demonstrated on mutual information estimation from high-dimensional data and energy-based generative models of image data.

Recovering temporal image sequences (videos) based on indirect, noisy, or incomplete data is an essential yet challenging task. We specifically consider the case where each data set is missing vital information, which prevents the accurate recovery of the individual images. Although some recent (variational) methods have demonstrated high-resolution image recovery based on jointly recovering sequential images, there remain robustness issues due to parameter tuning and restrictions on the type of the sequential images. Here, we present a method based on hierarchical Bayesian learning for the joint recovery of sequential images that incorporates prior intra- and inter-image information. Our method restores the missing information in each image by "borrowing" it from the other images. As a result, \emph{all} of the individual reconstructions yield improved accuracy. Our method can be used for various data acquisitions and allows for uncertainty quantification. Some preliminary results indicate its potential use for sequential deblurring and magnetic resonance imaging.

Federated learning (FL) enables participating parties to collaboratively build a global model with boosted utility without disclosing private data information. Appropriate protection mechanisms have to be adopted to fulfill the requirements in preserving \textit{privacy} and maintaining high model \textit{utility}. The nature of the widely-adopted protection mechanisms including \textit{Randomization Mechanism} and \textit{Compression Mechanism} is to protect privacy via distorting model parameter. We measure the utility via the gap between the original model parameter and the distorted model parameter. We want to identify under what general conditions privacy-preserving federated learning can achieve near-optimal utility via data generation and parameter distortion. To provide an avenue for achieving near-optimal utility, we present an upper bound for utility loss, which is measured using two main terms called variance-reduction and model parameter discrepancy separately. Our analysis inspires the design of appropriate protection parameters for the protection mechanisms to achieve near-optimal utility and meet the privacy requirements simultaneously. The main techniques for the protection mechanism include parameter distortion and data generation, which are generic and can be applied extensively. Furthermore, we provide an upper bound for the trade-off between privacy and utility, which together with the lower bound illustrated in NFL form the conditions for achieving optimal trade-off.

The majority of work in privacy-preserving federated learning (FL) has been focusing on horizontally partitioned datasets where clients share the same sets of features and can train complete models independently. However, in many interesting problems, such as financial fraud detection and disease detection, individual data points are scattered across different clients/organizations in vertical federated learning. Solutions for this type of FL require the exchange of gradients between participants and rarely consider privacy and security concerns, posing a potential risk of privacy leakage. In this work, we present a novel design for training vertical FL securely and efficiently using state-of-the-art security modules for secure aggregation. We demonstrate empirically that our method does not impact training performance whilst obtaining 9.1e2 ~3.8e4 speedup compared to homomorphic encryption (HE).

The cyber-threat landscape has evolved tremendously in recent years, with new threat variants emerging daily, and large-scale coordinated campaigns becoming more prevalent. In this study, we propose CELEST (CollaborativE LEarning for Scalable Threat detection), a federated machine learning framework for global threat detection over HTTP, which is one of the most commonly used protocols for malware dissemination and communication. CELEST leverages federated learning in order to collaboratively train a global model across multiple clients who keep their data locally, thus providing increased privacy and confidentiality assurances. Through a novel active learning component integrated with the federated learning technique, our system continuously discovers and learns the behavior of new, evolving, and globally-coordinated cyber threats. We show that CELEST is able to expose attacks that are largely invisible to individual organizations. For instance, in one challenging attack scenario with data exfiltration malware, the global model achieves a three-fold increase in Precision-Recall AUC compared to the local model. We deploy CELEST on two university networks and show that it is able to detect the malicious HTTP communication with high precision and low false positive rates. Furthermore, during its deployment, CELEST detected a set of previously unknown 42 malicious URLs and 20 malicious domains in one day, which were confirmed to be malicious by VirusTotal.

This paper addresses the difficulty of forecasting multiple financial time series (TS) conjointly using deep neural networks (DNN). We investigate whether DNN-based models could forecast these TS more efficiently by learning their representation directly. To this end, we make use of the dynamic factor graph (DFG) from that we enhance by proposing a novel variable-length attention-based mechanism to render it memory-augmented. Using this mechanism, we propose an unsupervised DNN architecture for multivariate TS forecasting that allows to learn and take advantage of the relationships between these TS. We test our model on two datasets covering 19 years of investment funds activities. Our experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms significantly typical DNN-based and statistical models at forecasting their 21-day price trajectory.

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