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The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution generating the observed data changes over time. If drift is present, machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. Many technologies for learning with drift rely on the interleaved test-train error (ITTE) as a quantity which approximates the model generalization error and triggers drift detection and model updates. In this work, we investigate in how far this procedure is mathematically justified. More precisely, we relate a change of the ITTE to the presence of real drift, i.e., a changed posterior, and to a change of the training result under the assumption of optimality. We support our theoretical findings by empirical evidence for several learning algorithms, models, and datasets.

The use of counterfactual explanations (CFXs) is an increasingly popular explanation strategy for machine learning models. However, recent studies have shown that these explanations may not be robust to changes in the underlying model (e.g., following retraining), which raises questions about their reliability in real-world applications. Existing attempts towards solving this problem are heuristic, and the robustness to model changes of the resulting CFXs is evaluated with only a small number of retrained models, failing to provide exhaustive guarantees. To remedy this, we propose {\Delta}-robustness, the first notion to formally and deterministically assess the robustness (to model changes) of CFXs for neural networks. We introduce an abstraction framework based on interval neural networks to verify the {\Delta}-robustness of CFXs against a possibly infinite set of changes to the model parameters, i.e., weights and biases. We then demonstrate the utility of this approach in two distinct ways. First, we analyse the {\Delta}-robustness of a number of CFX generation methods from the literature and show that they unanimously host significant deficiencies in this regard. Second, we demonstrate how embedding {\Delta}-robustness within existing methods can provide CFXs which are provably robust.

Trustworthy AI is becoming ever more important in both machine learning and legal domains. One important consequence is that decision makers must seek to guarantee a 'fair', i.e., non-discriminatory, algorithmic decision procedure. However, there are several competing notions of algorithmic fairness that have been shown to be mutually incompatible under realistic factual assumptions. This concerns, for example, the widely used fairness measures of 'calibration within groups' and 'balance for the positive/negative class'. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm (FAir Interpolation Method: FAIM) for continuously interpolating between these three fairness criteria. Thus, an initially unfair prediction can be remedied to, at least partially, meet a desired, weighted combination of the respective fairness conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm when applied to synthetic data, the COMPAS data set, and a new, real-world data set from the e-commerce sector. Finally, we discuss to what extent FAIM can be harnessed to comply with conflicting legal obligations. The analysis suggests that it may operationalize duties in traditional legal fields, such as credit scoring and criminal justice proceedings, but also for the latest AI regulations put forth in the EU, like the recently enacted Digital Markets Act.

The Gaussian mechanism is one differential privacy mechanism commonly used to protect numerical data. However, it may be ill-suited to some applications because it has unbounded support and thus can produce invalid numerical answers to queries, such as negative ages or human heights in the tens of meters. One can project such private values onto valid ranges of data, though such projections lead to the accumulation of private query responses at the boundaries of such ranges, thereby harming accuracy. Motivated by the need for both privacy and accuracy over bounded domains, we present a bounded Gaussian mechanism for differential privacy, which has support only on a given region. We present both univariate and multivariate versions of this mechanism and illustrate a significant reduction in variance relative to comparable existing work.

Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a fundamental task. We propose a novel method of ARMA order identification through projection predictive inference, which is grounded in Bayesian decision theory and naturally allows for uncertainty communication. It benefits from improved stability through the use of a reference model. The procedure consists of two steps: in the first, the practitioner incorporates their understanding of underlying data-generating process into a reference model, which we latterly project onto possibly parsimonious submodels. These submodels are optimally inferred to best replicate the predictive performance of the reference model. We further propose a search heuristic amenable to the ARMA framework. We show that the submodels selected by our procedure exhibit predictive performance at least as good as those produced by auto.arima over simulated and real-data experiments, and in some cases out-perform the latter. Finally we show that our procedure is robust to noise, and scales well to larger data.

With the booming deployment of Internet of Things, health monitoring applications have gradually prospered. Within the recent COVID-19 pandemic situation, interest in permanent remote health monitoring solutions has raised, targeting to reduce contact and preserve the limited medical resources. Among the technological methods to realize efficient remote health monitoring, federated learning (FL) has drawn particular attention due to its robustness in preserving data privacy. However, FL can yield to high communication costs, due to frequent transmissions between the FL server and clients. To tackle this problem, we propose in this paper a communication-efficient federated learning (CEFL) framework that involves clients clustering and transfer learning. First, we propose to group clients through the calculation of similarity factors, based on the neural networks characteristics. Then, a representative client in each cluster is selected to be the leader of the cluster. Differently from the conventional FL, our method performs FL training only among the cluster leaders. Subsequently, transfer learning is adopted by the leader to update its cluster members with the trained FL model. Finally, each member fine-tunes the received model with its own data. To further reduce the communication costs, we opt for a partial-layer FL aggregation approach. This method suggests partially updating the neural network model rather than fully. Through experiments, we show that CEFL can save up to to 98.45% in communication costs while conceding less than 3% in accuracy loss, when compared to the conventional FL. Finally, CEFL demonstrates a high accuracy for clients with small or unbalanced datasets.

As facial recognition systems are deployed more widely, scholars and activists have studied their biases and harms. Audits are commonly used to accomplish this and compare the algorithmic facial recognition systems' performance against datasets with various metadata labels about the subjects of the images. Seminal works have found discrepancies in performance by gender expression, age, perceived race, skin type, etc. These studies and audits often examine algorithms which fall into two categories: academic models or commercial models. We present a detailed comparison between academic and commercial face detection systems, specifically examining robustness to noise. We find that state-of-the-art academic face detection models exhibit demographic disparities in their noise robustness, specifically by having statistically significant decreased performance on older individuals and those who present their gender in a masculine manner. When we compare the size of these disparities to that of commercial models, we conclude that commercial models - in contrast to their relatively larger development budget and industry-level fairness commitments - are always as biased or more biased than an academic model.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.

To address the sparsity and cold start problem of collaborative filtering, researchers usually make use of side information, such as social networks or item attributes, to improve recommendation performance. This paper considers the knowledge graph as the source of side information. To address the limitations of existing embedding-based and path-based methods for knowledge-graph-aware recommendation, we propose Ripple Network, an end-to-end framework that naturally incorporates the knowledge graph into recommender systems. Similar to actual ripples propagating on the surface of water, Ripple Network stimulates the propagation of user preferences over the set of knowledge entities by automatically and iteratively extending a user's potential interests along links in the knowledge graph. The multiple "ripples" activated by a user's historically clicked items are thus superposed to form the preference distribution of the user with respect to a candidate item, which could be used for predicting the final clicking probability. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that Ripple Network achieves substantial gains in a variety of scenarios, including movie, book and news recommendation, over several state-of-the-art baselines.