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Predictive models -- as with machine learning -- can underpin causal inference, to estimate the effects of an intervention at the population or individual level. This opens the door to a plethora of models, useful to match the increasing complexity of health data, but also the Pandora box of model selection: which of these models yield the most valid causal estimates? Classic machine-learning cross-validation procedures are not directly applicable. Indeed, an appropriate selection procedure for causal inference should equally weight both outcome errors for each individual, treated or not treated, whereas one outcome may be seldom observed for a sub-population. We study how more elaborate risks benefit causal model selection. We show theoretically that simple risks are brittle to weak overlap between treated and non-treated individuals as well as to heterogeneous errors between populations. Rather a more elaborate metric, the R-risk appears as a proxy of the oracle error on causal estimates, observable at the cost of an overlap re-weighting. As the R-risk is defined not only from model predictions but also by using the conditional mean outcome and the treatment probability, using it for model selection requires adapting cross validation. Extensive experiments show that the resulting procedure gives the best causal model selection.

We investigate the problem of reducing mistake severity for fine-grained classification. Fine-grained classification can be challenging, mainly due to the requirement of knowledge or domain expertise for accurate annotation. However, humans are particularly adept at performing coarse classification as it requires relatively low levels of expertise. To this end, we present a novel approach for Post-Hoc Correction called Hierarchical Ensembles (HiE) that utilizes label hierarchy to improve the performance of fine-grained classification at test-time using the coarse-grained predictions. By only requiring the parents of leaf nodes, our method significantly reduces avg. mistake severity while improving top-1 accuracy on the iNaturalist-19 and tieredImageNet-H datasets, achieving a new state-of-the-art on both benchmarks. We also investigate the efficacy of our approach in the semi-supervised setting. Our approach brings notable gains in top-1 accuracy while significantly decreasing the severity of mistakes as training data decreases for the fine-grained classes. The simplicity and post-hoc nature of HiE render it practical to be used with any off-the-shelf trained model to improve its predictions further.

In recent years, several swarm intelligence optimization algorithms have been proposed to be applied for solving a variety of optimization problems. However, the values of several hyperparameters should be determined. For instance, although Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has been applied for several applications with higher optimization performance, the weights of inertial velocity, the particle's best known position and the swarm's best known position should be determined. Therefore, this study proposes an analytic framework to analyze the optimized average-fitness-function-value (AFFV) based on mathematical models for a variety of fitness functions. Furthermore, the optimized hyperparameter values could be determined with a lower AFFV for minimum cases. Experimental results show that the hyperparameter values from the proposed method can obtain higher efficiency convergences and lower AFFVs.

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, the decision-maker may elicit useful broad structural judgements but a level of interpolation is required to arrive at a likelihood model. One model, often a computationally convenient canonical form, is chosen, when many alternatives would have been equally consistent with the elicited judgements. Equally, observational datasets often contain unforeseen heterogeneities and recording errors. Acknowledging such imprecisions, a faithful Bayesian analysis should be stable across reasonable equivalence classes for these inputs. We show that traditional Bayesian updating provides stability across a very strict class of likelihood models and DGPs, while a generalised Bayesian alternative using the beta-divergence loss function is shown to be stable across practical and interpretable neighbourhoods. We illustrate this in linear regression, binary classification, and mixture modelling examples, showing that stable updating does not compromise the ability to learn about the DGP. These stability results provide a compelling justification for using generalised Bayes to facilitate inference under simplified canonical models.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) are becoming a very popular paradigm for vision tasks as they achieve state-of-the-art performance on image classification. However, although early works implied that this network structure had increased robustness against adversarial attacks, some works argue ViTs are still vulnerable. This paper presents our first attempt toward detecting adversarial attacks during inference time using the network's input and outputs as well as latent features. We design four quantifications (or derivatives) of input, output, and latent vectors of ViT-based models that provide a signature of the inference, which could be beneficial for the attack detection, and empirically study their behavior over clean samples and adversarial samples. The results demonstrate that the quantifications from input (images) and output (posterior probabilities) are promising for distinguishing clean and adversarial samples, while latent vectors offer less discriminative power, though they give some insights on how adversarial perturbations work.

In many modern statistical problems, the limited available data must be used both to develop the hypotheses to test, and to test these hypotheses-that is, both for exploratory and confirmatory data analysis. Reusing the same dataset for both exploration and testing can lead to massive selection bias, leading to many false discoveries. Selective inference is a framework that allows for performing valid inference even when the same data is reused for exploration and testing. In this work, we are interested in the problem of selective inference for data clustering, where a clustering procedure is used to hypothesize a separation of the data points into a collection of subgroups, and we then wish to test whether these data-dependent clusters in fact represent meaningful differences within the data. Recent work by Gao et al. [2022] provides a framework for doing selective inference for this setting, where the hierarchical clustering algorithm is used for producing the cluster assignments, which was then extended to k-means clustering by Chen and Witten [2022]. Both these works rely on assuming a known covariance structure for the data, but in practice, the noise level needs to be estimated-and this is particularly challenging when the true cluster structure is unknown. In our work, we extend to the setting of noise with unknown variance, and provide a selective inference method for this more general setting. Empirical results show that our new method is better able to maintain high power while controlling Type I error when the true noise level is unknown.

Background: Outcome measures that are count variables with excessive zeros are common in health behaviors research. There is a lack of empirical data about the relative performance of prevailing statistical models when outcomes are zero-inflated, particularly compared with recently developed approaches. Methods: The current simulation study examined five commonly used analytical approaches for count outcomes, including two linear models (with outcomes on raw and log-transformed scales, respectively) and three count distribution-based models (i.e., Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models). We also considered the marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) model, a novel alternative that estimates the effects on overall mean while adjusting for zero-inflation. Extensive simulations were conducted to evaluate their the statistical power and Type I error rate across various data conditions. Results: Under zero-inflation, the Poisson model failed to control the Type I error rate, resulting in higher than expected false positive results. When the intervention effects on the zero (vs. non-zero) and count parts were in the same direction, the MZIP model had the highest statistical power, followed by the linear model with outcomes on raw scale, negative binomial model, and ZIP model. The performance of a linear model with a log-transformed outcome variable was unsatisfactory. When only one of the effects on the zero (vs. non-zero) part and the count part existed, the ZIP model had the highest statistical power. Conclusions: The MZIP model demonstrated better statistical properties in detecting true intervention effects and controlling false positive results for zero-inflated count outcomes. This MZIP model may serve as an appealing analytical approach to evaluating overall intervention effects in studies with count outcomes marked by excessive zeros.

Image reconstruction based on indirect, noisy, or incomplete data remains an important yet challenging task. While methods such as compressive sensing have demonstrated high-resolution image recovery in various settings, there remain issues of robustness due to parameter tuning. Moreover, since the recovery is limited to a point estimate, it is impossible to quantify the uncertainty, which is often desirable. Due to these inherent limitations, a sparse Bayesian learning approach is sometimes adopted to recover a posterior distribution of the unknown. Sparse Bayesian learning assumes that some linear transformation of the unknown is sparse. However, most of the methods developed are tailored to specific problems, with particular forward models and priors. Here, we present a generalized approach to sparse Bayesian learning. It has the advantage that it can be used for various types of data acquisitions and prior information. Some preliminary results on image reconstruction/recovery indicate its potential use for denoising, deblurring, and magnetic resonance imaging.

Learning in neural networks is often framed as a problem in which targeted error signals are directly propagated to parameters and used to produce updates that induce more optimal network behaviour. Backpropagation of error (BP) is an example of such an approach and has proven to be a highly successful application of stochastic gradient descent to deep neural networks. We propose constrained parameter inference (COPI) as a new principle for learning. The COPI approach assumes that learning can be set up in a manner where parameters infer their own values based upon observations of their local neuron activities. We find that this estimation of network parameters is possible under the constraints of decorrelated neural inputs and top-down perturbations of neural states for credit assignment. We show that the decorrelation required for COPI allows learning at extremely high learning rates, competitive with that of adaptive optimizers, as used by BP. We further demonstrate that COPI affords a new approach to feature analysis and network compression. Finally, we argue that COPI may shed new light on learning in biological networks given the evidence for decorrelation in the brain.