Background: Outcome measures that are count variables with excessive zeros are common in health behaviors research. There is a lack of empirical data about the relative performance of prevailing statistical models when outcomes are zero-inflated, particularly compared with recently developed approaches. Methods: The current simulation study examined five commonly used analytical approaches for count outcomes, including two linear models (with outcomes on raw and log-transformed scales, respectively) and three count distribution-based models (i.e., Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models). We also considered the marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) model, a novel alternative that estimates the effects on overall mean while adjusting for zero-inflation. Extensive simulations were conducted to evaluate their the statistical power and Type I error rate across various data conditions. Results: Under zero-inflation, the Poisson model failed to control the Type I error rate, resulting in higher than expected false positive results. When the intervention effects on the zero (vs. non-zero) and count parts were in the same direction, the MZIP model had the highest statistical power, followed by the linear model with outcomes on raw scale, negative binomial model, and ZIP model. The performance of a linear model with a log-transformed outcome variable was unsatisfactory. When only one of the effects on the zero (vs. non-zero) part and the count part existed, the ZIP model had the highest statistical power. Conclusions: The MZIP model demonstrated better statistical properties in detecting true intervention effects and controlling false positive results for zero-inflated count outcomes. This MZIP model may serve as an appealing analytical approach to evaluating overall intervention effects in studies with count outcomes marked by excessive zeros.
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In this short note, I derive the Bell-CHSH inequalities as an elementary result in the present-day theory of statistical causality based on graphical models or Bayes' nets, defined in terms of DAGs (Directed Acyclic Graphs) representing direct statistical causal influences between a number of observed and unobserved random variables. I show how spatio-temporal constraints in loophole-free Bell experiments, and natural classical statistical causality considerations, lead to Bell's notion of local hidden variables, and thence to the CHSH inequalities. The word "local" applies to the way that the chosen settings influence the observed outcomes. The case of contextual setting-dependent hidden variables (thought of as being located in the measurement devices and dependent on the measurement settings) is automatically covered, despite recent claims that Bell's conclusions can be circumvented in this way.
In applications of group testing in networks, e.g. identifying individuals who are infected by a disease spread over a network, exploiting correlation among network nodes provides fundamental opportunities in reducing the number of tests needed. We model and analyze group testing on $n$ correlated nodes whose interactions are specified by a graph $G$. We model correlation through an edge-faulty random graph formed from $G$ in which each edge is dropped with probability $1-r$, and all nodes in the same component have the same state. We consider three classes of graphs: cycles and trees, $d$-regular graphs and stochastic block models or SBM, and obtain lower and upper bounds on the number of tests needed to identify the defective nodes. Our results are expressed in terms of the number of tests needed when the nodes are independent and they are in terms of $n$, $r$, and the target error. In particular, we quantify the fundamental improvements that exploiting correlation offers by the ratio between the total number of nodes $n$ and the equivalent number of independent nodes in a classic group testing algorithm. The lower bounds are derived by illustrating a strong dependence of the number of tests needed on the expected number of components. In this regard, we establish a new approximation for the distribution of component sizes in "$d$-regular trees" which may be of independent interest and leads to a lower bound on the expected number of components in $d$-regular graphs. The upper bounds are found by forming dense subgraphs in which nodes are more likely to be in the same state. When $G$ is a cycle or tree, we show an improvement by a factor of $log(1/r)$. For grid, a graph with almost $2n$ edges, the improvement is by a factor of ${(1-r) \log(1/r)}$, indicating drastic improvement compared to trees. When $G$ has a larger number of edges, as in SBM, the improvement can scale in $n$.
The presence of measurement error is a widespread issue which, when ignored, can render the results of an analysis unreliable. Numerous corrections for the effects of measurement error have been proposed and studied, often under the assumption of a normally distributed, additive measurement error model. One such method is simulation extrapolation, or SIMEX. In many situations observed data are non-symmetric, heavy-tailed, or otherwise highly non-normal. In these settings, correction techniques relying on the assumption of normality are undesirable. We propose an extension to the simulation extrapolation method which is nonparametric in the sense that no specific distributional assumptions are required on the error terms. The technique is implemented when either validation data or replicate measurements are available, and is designed to be immediately accessible for those familiar with simulation extrapolation.
Interleaving is an online evaluation approach for information retrieval systems that compares the effectiveness of ranking functions in interpreting the users' implicit feedback. Previous work such as Hofmann et al (2011) has evaluated the most promising interleaved methods at the time, on uniform distributions of queries. In the real world, ordinarily, there is an unbalanced distribution of repeated queries that follows a long-tailed users' search demand curve. The more a query is executed, by different users (or in different sessions), the higher the probability of collecting implicit feedback (interactions/clicks) on the related search results. This paper first aims to replicate the Team Draft Interleaving accuracy evaluation on uniform query distributions and then focuses on assessing how this method generalizes to long-tailed real-world scenarios. The reproducibility work raised interesting considerations on how the winning ranking function for each query should impact the overall winner for the entire evaluation. Based on what was observed, we propose that not all the queries should contribute to the final decision in equal proportion. As a result of these insights, we designed two variations of the $\Delta_{AB}$ score winner estimator that assign to each query a credit based on statistical hypothesis testing. To replicate, reproduce and extend the original work, we have developed from scratch a system that simulates a search engine and users' interactions from datasets from the industry. Our experiments confirm our intuition and show that our methods are promising in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and robustness to noise.
Implicit surface representations such as the signed distance function (SDF) have emerged as a promising approach for image-based surface reconstruction. However, existing optimization methods assume solid surfaces and are therefore unable to properly reconstruct semi-transparent surfaces and thin structures, which also exhibit low opacity due to the blending effect with the background. While neural radiance field (NeRF) based methods can model semi-transparency and achieve photo-realistic quality in synthesized novel views, their volumetric geometry representation tightly couples geometry and opacity, and therefore cannot be easily converted into surfaces without introducing artifacts. We present $\alpha$Surf, a novel surface representation with decoupled geometry and opacity for the reconstruction of semi-transparent and thin surfaces where the colors mix. Ray-surface intersections on our representation can be found in closed-form via analytical solutions of cubic polynomials, avoiding Monte-Carlo sampling and is fully differentiable by construction. Our qualitative and quantitative evaluations show that our approach can accurately reconstruct surfaces with semi-transparent and thin parts with fewer artifacts, achieving better reconstruction quality than state-of-the-art SDF and NeRF methods. Website: //alphasurf.netlify.app/
New emerging technologies powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) have the potential to disruptively transform our societies for the better. In particular, data-driven learning approaches (i.e., Machine Learning (ML)) have been a true revolution in the advancement of multiple technologies in various application domains. But at the same time there is growing concern about certain intrinsic characteristics of these methodologies that carry potential risks to both safety and fundamental rights. Although there are mechanisms in the adoption process to minimize these risks (e.g., safety regulations), these do not exclude the possibility of harm occurring, and if this happens, victims should be able to seek compensation. Liability regimes will therefore play a key role in ensuring basic protection for victims using or interacting with these systems. However, the same characteristics that make AI systems inherently risky, such as lack of causality, opacity, unpredictability or their self and continuous learning capabilities, may lead to considerable difficulties when it comes to proving causation. This paper presents three case studies, as well as the methodology to reach them, that illustrate these difficulties. Specifically, we address the cases of cleaning robots, delivery drones and robots in education. The outcome of the proposed analysis suggests the need to revise liability regimes to alleviate the burden of proof on victims in cases involving AI technologies.
Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on the identification and estimation of \textit{causal effects}, defined as (properties of) the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical actions that alter the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we explore an alternative approach using the concept of \textit{causal influence}, defined through operations that alter the information propagated through the edges of a directed acyclic graph. Causal influence may be more useful than causal effects in settings in which interventions on the causal agents are infeasible or of no substantive interest, for example when considering gender, race, or genetics as a causal agent. Furthermore, the "information transfer" interventions proposed allow us to solve a long-standing problem in causal mediation analysis, namely the non-parametric identification of path-specific effects in the presence of treatment-induced mediator-outcome confounding. We propose efficient non-parametric estimators for a covariance version of the proposed causal influence measures, using data-adaptive regression coupled with semi-parametric efficiency theory to address model misspecification bias while retaining $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality. We illustrate the use of our methods in two examples using publicly available data.
We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset affected by a selection bias. We show that the likelihood of the available data has no local maxima. This enables us to use the causal expectation-maximisation scheme to compute approximate bounds for partially identifiable counterfactual queries, which are the focus of this paper. We then show how the same approach can solve the general case of multiple datasets, no matter whether interventional or observational, biased or unbiased, by remapping it into the former one via graphical transformations. Systematic numerical experiments and a case study on palliative care show the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach, while hinting at the benefits of integrating heterogeneous data to get informative bounds in case of partial identifiability.
Time series forecasting is widely used in business intelligence, e.g., forecast stock market price, sales, and help the analysis of data trend. Most time series of interest are macroscopic time series that are aggregated from microscopic data. However, instead of directly modeling the macroscopic time series, rare literature studied the forecasting of macroscopic time series by leveraging data on the microscopic level. In this paper, we assume that the microscopic time series follow some unknown mixture probabilistic distributions. We theoretically show that as we identify the ground truth latent mixture components, the estimation of time series from each component could be improved because of lower variance, thus benefitting the estimation of macroscopic time series as well. Inspired by the power of Seq2seq and its variants on the modeling of time series data, we propose Mixture of Seq2seq (MixSeq), an end2end mixture model to cluster microscopic time series, where all the components come from a family of Seq2seq models parameterized by different parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show the superiority of our approach.
Detection and recognition of text in natural images are two main problems in the field of computer vision that have a wide variety of applications in analysis of sports videos, autonomous driving, industrial automation, to name a few. They face common challenging problems that are factors in how text is represented and affected by several environmental conditions. The current state-of-the-art scene text detection and/or recognition methods have exploited the witnessed advancement in deep learning architectures and reported a superior accuracy on benchmark datasets when tackling multi-resolution and multi-oriented text. However, there are still several remaining challenges affecting text in the wild images that cause existing methods to underperform due to there models are not able to generalize to unseen data and the insufficient labeled data. Thus, unlike previous surveys in this field, the objectives of this survey are as follows: first, offering the reader not only a review on the recent advancement in scene text detection and recognition, but also presenting the results of conducting extensive experiments using a unified evaluation framework that assesses pre-trained models of the selected methods on challenging cases, and applies the same evaluation criteria on these techniques. Second, identifying several existing challenges for detecting or recognizing text in the wild images, namely, in-plane-rotation, multi-oriented and multi-resolution text, perspective distortion, illumination reflection, partial occlusion, complex fonts, and special characters. Finally, the paper also presents insight into the potential research directions in this field to address some of the mentioned challenges that are still encountering scene text detection and recognition techniques.
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