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With the rapid proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and the growing concern for data privacy among the public, Federated Learning (FL) has gained significant attention as a privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm. FL enables the training of a global model among clients without exposing local data. However, when a federated learning system runs on wireless communication networks, limited wireless resources, heterogeneity of clients, and network transmission failures affect its performance and accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel dynamic cross-tier FL scheme, named FedDCT to increase training accuracy and performance in wireless communication networks. We utilize a tiering algorithm that dynamically divides clients into different tiers according to specific indicators and assigns specific timeout thresholds to each tier to reduce the training time required. To improve the accuracy of the model without increasing the training time, we introduce a cross-tier client selection algorithm that can effectively select the tiers and participants. Simulation experiments show that our scheme can make the model converge faster and achieve a higher accuracy in wireless communication networks.

Decision tree learning is increasingly being used for pointwise inference. Important applications include causal heterogenous treatment effects and dynamic policy decisions, as well as conditional quantile regression and design of experiments, where tree estimation and inference is conducted at specific values of the covariates. In this paper, we call into question the use of decision trees (trained by adaptive recursive partitioning) for such purposes by demonstrating that they can fail to achieve polynomial rates of convergence in uniform norm, even with pruning. Instead, the convergence may be poly-logarithmic or, in some important special cases, such as honest regression trees, fail completely. We show that random forests can remedy the situation, turning poor performing trees into nearly optimal procedures, at the cost of losing interpretability and introducing two additional tuning parameters. The two hallmarks of random forests, subsampling and the random feature selection mechanism, are seen to each distinctively contribute to achieving nearly optimal performance for the model class considered.

Traditionally, the Bayesian optimal auction design problem has been considered either when the bidder values are i.i.d., or when each bidder is individually identifiable via her value distribution. The latter is a reasonable approach when the bidders can be classified into a few categories, but there are many instances where the classification of bidders is a continuum. For example, the classification of the bidders may be based on their annual income, their propensity to buy an item based on past behavior, or in the case of ad auctions, the click through rate of their ads. We introduce an alternate model that captures this aspect, where bidders are \emph{a priori} identical, but can be distinguished based (only) on some side information the auctioneer obtains at the time of the auction. We extend the sample complexity approach of Dhangwatnotai, Roughgarden, and Yan (2014) and Cole and Roughgarden (2014) to this model and obtain almost matching upper and lower bounds. As an aside, we obtain a revenue monotonicity lemma which may be of independent interest. We also show how to use Empirical Risk Minimization techniques to improve the sample complexity bound of Cole and Roughgarden (2014) for the non-identical but independent value distribution case.

Approximating significance scans of searches for new particles in high-energy physics experiments as Gaussian fields is a well-established way to estimate the trials factors required to quantify global significances. We propose a novel, highly efficient method to estimate the covariance matrix of such a Gaussian field. The method is based on the linear approximation of statistical fluctuations of the signal amplitude. For one-dimensional searches the upper bound on the trials factor can then be calculated directly from the covariance matrix. For higher dimensions, the Gaussian process described by this covariance matrix may be sampled to calculate the trials factor directly. This method also serves as the theoretical basis for a recent study of the trials factor with an empirically constructed set of Asmiov-like background datasets. We illustrate the method with studies of a $H \rightarrow \gamma \gamma$ inspired model that was used in the empirical paper.

In this paper, we aim at establishing an approximation theory and a learning theory of distribution regression via a fully connected neural network (FNN). In contrast to the classical regression methods, the input variables of distribution regression are probability measures. Then we often need to perform a second-stage sampling process to approximate the actual information of the distribution. On the other hand, the classical neural network structure requires the input variable to be a vector. When the input samples are probability distributions, the traditional deep neural network method cannot be directly used and the difficulty arises for distribution regression. A well-defined neural network structure for distribution inputs is intensively desirable. There is no mathematical model and theoretical analysis on neural network realization of distribution regression. To overcome technical difficulties and address this issue, we establish a novel fully connected neural network framework to realize an approximation theory of functionals defined on the space of Borel probability measures. Furthermore, based on the established functional approximation results, in the hypothesis space induced by the novel FNN structure with distribution inputs, almost optimal learning rates for the proposed distribution regression model up to logarithmic terms are derived via a novel two-stage error decomposition technique.

Graph neural network (GNN) has gained increasing popularity in recent years owing to its capability and flexibility in modeling complex graph structure data. Among all graph learning methods, hypergraph learning is a technique for exploring the implicit higher-order correlations when training the embedding space of the graph. In this paper, we propose a hypergraph learning framework named LFH that is capable of dynamic hyperedge construction and attentive embedding update utilizing the heterogeneity attributes of the graph. Specifically, in our framework, the high-quality features are first generated by the pairwise fusion strategy that utilizes explicit graph structure information when generating initial node embedding. Afterwards, a hypergraph is constructed through the dynamic grouping of implicit hyperedges, followed by the type-specific hypergraph learning process. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed framework, we conduct comprehensive experiments on several popular datasets with eleven state-of-the-art models on both node classification and link prediction tasks, which fall into categories of homogeneous pairwise graph learning, heterogeneous pairwise graph learning, and hypergraph learning. The experiment results demonstrate a significant performance gain (average 12.5% in node classification and 13.3% in link prediction) compared with recent state-of-the-art methods.

The $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model for random graphs is commonly used for representing pairwise interactions in a network with degree heterogeneity. Going beyond pairwise interactions, Stasi et al. (2014) introduced the hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model for capturing degree heterogeneity in networks with higher-order (multi-way) interactions. In this paper we initiate the rigorous study of the hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model with multiple layers, which allows for hyperedges of different sizes across the layers. To begin with, we derive the rates of convergence of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimate and establish their minimax rate optimality. We also derive the limiting distribution of the ML estimate and construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the model parameters. Next, we consider the goodness-of-fit problem in the hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model. Specifically, we establish the asymptotic normality of the likelihood ratio (LR) test under the null hypothesis, derive its detection threshold, and also its limiting power at the threshold. Interestingly, the detection threshold of the LR test turns out to be minimax optimal, that is, all tests are asymptotically powerless below this threshold. The theoretical results are further validated in numerical experiments. In addition to developing the theoretical framework for estimation and inference for hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-models, the above results fill a number of gaps in the graph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model literature, such as the minimax optimality of the ML estimates and the non-null properties of the LR test, which, to the best of our knowledge, have not been studied before.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Learning latent representations of nodes in graphs is an important and ubiquitous task with widespread applications such as link prediction, node classification, and graph visualization. Previous methods on graph representation learning mainly focus on static graphs, however, many real-world graphs are dynamic and evolve over time. In this paper, we present Dynamic Self-Attention Network (DySAT), a novel neural architecture that operates on dynamic graphs and learns node representations that capture both structural properties and temporal evolutionary patterns. Specifically, DySAT computes node representations by jointly employing self-attention layers along two dimensions: structural neighborhood and temporal dynamics. We conduct link prediction experiments on two classes of graphs: communication networks and bipartite rating networks. Our experimental results show that DySAT has a significant performance gain over several different state-of-the-art graph embedding baselines.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for representation learning of graphs broadly follow a neighborhood aggregation framework, where the representation vector of a node is computed by recursively aggregating and transforming feature vectors of its neighboring nodes. Many GNN variants have been proposed and have achieved state-of-the-art results on both node and graph classification tasks. However, despite GNNs revolutionizing graph representation learning, there is limited understanding of their representational properties and limitations. Here, we present a theoretical framework for analyzing the expressive power of GNNs in capturing different graph structures. Our results characterize the discriminative power of popular GNN variants, such as Graph Convolutional Networks and GraphSAGE, and show that they cannot learn to distinguish certain simple graph structures. We then develop a simple architecture that is provably the most expressive among the class of GNNs and is as powerful as the Weisfeiler-Lehman graph isomorphism test. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on a number of graph classification benchmarks, and demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance.