This paper addresses the task of estimating a covariance matrix under a patternless sparsity assumption. In contrast to existing approaches based on thresholding or shrinkage penalties, we propose a likelihood-based method that regularizes the distance from the covariance estimate to a symmetric sparsity set. This formulation avoids unwanted shrinkage induced by more common norm penalties and enables optimization of the resulting non-convex objective by solving a sequence of smooth, unconstrained subproblems. These subproblems are generated and solved via the proximal distance version of the majorization-minimization principle. The resulting algorithm executes rapidly, gracefully handles settings where the number of parameters exceeds the number of cases, yields a positive definite solution, and enjoys desirable convergence properties. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms competing methods by several metrics across a suite of simulated experiments. Its merits are illustrated on an international migration dataset and a classic case study on flow cytometry. Our findings suggest that the marginal and conditional dependency networks for the cell signalling data are more similar than previously concluded.
相關內容
We introduce a class of Monte Carlo estimators that aim to overcome the rapid growth of variance with dimension often observed for standard estimators by exploiting the target's independence structure. We identify the most basic incarnations of these estimators with a class of generalized U-statistics, and thus establish their unbiasedness, consistency, and asymptotic normality. Moreover, we show that they obtain the minimum possible variance amongst a broad class of estimators; and we investigate their computational cost and delineate the settings in which they are most efficient. We exemplify the merger of these estimators with other well-known Monte Carlo estimators so as to better adapt the latter to the target's independence structure and improve their performance. We do this via three simple mergers: one with importance sampling, another with importance sampling squared, and a final one with pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hasting. In all cases, we show that the resulting estimators are well-founded and achieve lower variances than their standard counterparts. Lastly, we illustrate the various variance reductions through several examples.
Normalizing flows are a popular class of models for approximating probability distributions. However, their invertible nature limits their ability to model target distributions with a complex topological structure, such as Boltzmann distributions. Several procedures have been proposed to solve this problem but many of them sacrifice invertibility and, thereby, tractability of the log-likelihood as well as other desirable properties. To address these limitations, we introduce a base distribution for normalizing flows based on learned rejection sampling, allowing the resulting normalizing flow to model complex topologies without giving up bijectivity. Furthermore, we develop suitable learning algorithms using both maximizing the log-likelihood and the optimization of the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence, and apply them to various sample problems, i.e.\ approximating 2D densities, density estimation of tabular data, image generation, and modeling Boltzmann distributions. In these experiments our method is competitive with or outperforms the baselines.
In this paper, we establish minimax optimal rates of convergence for prediction in a semi-functional linear model that consists of a functional component and a less smooth nonparametric component. Our results reveal that the smoother functional component can be learned with the minimax rate as if the nonparametric component were known. More specifically, a double-penalized least squares method is adopted to estimate both the functional and nonparametric components within the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. By virtue of the representer theorem, an efficient algorithm that requires no iterations is proposed to solve the corresponding optimization problem, where the regularization parameters are selected by the generalized cross validation criterion. Numerical studies are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method and to verify the theoretical analysis.
This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that can be seen as a generalization (and improvement) of the celebrated Chernoff method. At its heart, it is based on deriving a new class of composite nonnegative martingales, with strong connections to testing by betting and the method of mixtures. We show how to extend these ideas to sampling without replacement, another heavily studied problem. In all cases, our bounds are adaptive to the unknown variance, and empirically vastly outperform existing approaches based on Hoeffding or empirical Bernstein inequalities and their recent supermartingale generalizations. In short, we establish a new state-of-the-art for four fundamental problems: CSs and CIs for bounded means, when sampling with and without replacement.
We consider \emph{Gibbs distributions}, which are families of probability distributions over a discrete space $\Omega$ with probability mass function of the form $\mu^\Omega_\beta(\omega) \propto e^{\beta H(\omega)}$ for $\beta$ in an interval $[\beta_{\min}, \beta_{\max}]$ and $H( \omega ) \in \{0 \} \cup [1, n]$. The \emph{partition function} is the normalization factor $Z(\beta)=\sum_{\omega \in\Omega}e^{\beta H(\omega)}$. Two important parameters of these distributions are the log partition ratio $q = \log \tfrac{Z(\beta_{\max})}{Z(\beta_{\min})}$ and the counts $c_x = |H^{-1}(x)|$. These are correlated with system parameters in a number of physical applications and sampling algorithms. Our first main result is to estimate the counts $c_x$ using roughly $\tilde O( \frac{q}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $\tilde O( \frac{n^2}{\varepsilon^2} )$ samples for integer-valued distributions (ignoring some second-order terms and parameters), and we show this is optimal up to logarithmic factors. We illustrate with improved algorithms for counting connected subgraphs and perfect matchings in a graph. We develop a key subroutine to estimate the partition function $Z$. Specifically, it generates a data structure to estimate $Z(\beta)$ for \emph{all} values $\beta$, without further samples. Constructing the data structure requires $O(\frac{q \log n}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $O(\frac{n^2 \log n}{\varepsilon^2} + n \log q)$ samples for integer-valued distributions. This improves over a prior algorithm of Huber (2015) which computes a single point estimate $Z(\beta_\max)$ using $O( q \log n( \log q + \log \log n + \varepsilon^{-2}))$ samples. We show matching lower bounds, demonstrating that this complexity is optimal as a function of $n$ and $q$ up to logarithmic terms.
Persistence diagrams (PD)s play a central role in topological data analysis. This analysis requires computing distances among such diagrams such as the 1-Wasserstein distance. Accurate computation of these PD distances for large data sets that render large diagrams may not scale appropriately with the existing methods. The main source of difficulty ensues from the size of the bipartite graph on which a matching needs to be computed for determining these PD distances. We address this problem by making several algorithmic and computational observations in order to obtain an approximation. First, taking advantage of the proximity of PD points, we condense them thereby decreasing the number of nodes in the graph for computation. The increase in point multiplicities is addressed by reducing the matching problem to a min-cost flow problem on a transshipment network. Second, we use Well Separated Pair Decomposition to sparsify the graph to a size that is linear in the number of points. Both node and arc sparsifications contribute to the approximation factor where we leverage a lower bound given by the Relaxed Word Mover's distance. Third, we eliminate bottlenecks during the sparsification procedure by introducing parallelism. Fourth, we develop an open source software called PDoptFlow based on our algorithm, exploiting parallelism by GPU and multicore. We perform extensive experiments and show that the actual empirical error is very low. We also show that we can achieve high performance at low guaranteed relative errors, improving upon the state of the arts.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
Data augmentation has been widely used for training deep learning systems for medical image segmentation and plays an important role in obtaining robust and transformation-invariant predictions. However, it has seldom been used at test time for segmentation and not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. In this paper, we first propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation for deep learning in image recognition, where the prediction is obtained through estimating its expectation by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We then propose a novel uncertainty estimation method based on the formulated test-time augmentation. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions, and 2) it provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the model-based uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.
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