Using deep latent variable models in causal inference has attracted considerable interest recently, but an essential open question is their ability to yield consistent causal estimates. While they have demonstrated promising results and theory exists on some simple model formulations, we also know that causal effects are not even identifiable in general with latent variables. We investigate this gap between theory and empirical results with analytical considerations and extensive experiments under multiple synthetic and real-world data sets, using the causal effect variational autoencoder (CEVAE) as a case study. While CEVAE seems to work reliably under some simple scenarios, it does not estimate the causal effect correctly with a misspecified latent variable or a complex data distribution, as opposed to its original motivation. Hence, our results show that more attention should be paid to ensuring the correctness of causal estimates with deep latent variable models.
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Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) are one of the most popular architectures that are used to solve classification problems accompanied by graphical information. We present a rigorous theoretical understanding of the effects of graph convolutions in multi-layer networks. We study these effects through the node classification problem of a non-linearly separable Gaussian mixture model coupled with a stochastic block model. First, we show that a single graph convolution expands the regime of the distance between the means where multi-layer networks can classify the data by a factor of at least $1/\sqrt[4]{\mathbb{E}{\rm deg}}$, where $\mathbb{E}{\rm deg}$ denotes the expected degree of a node. Second, we show that with a slightly stronger graph density, two graph convolutions improve this factor to at least $1/\sqrt[4]{n}$, where $n$ is the number of nodes in the graph. Finally, we provide both theoretical and empirical insights into the performance of graph convolutions placed in different combinations among the layers of a network, concluding that the performance is mutually similar for all combinations of the placement. We present extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data that illustrate our results.
Many recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) optical flow models use finite-step recurrent update operations to emulate traditional algorithms by encouraging iterative refinements toward a stable flow estimation. However, these RNNs impose large computation and memory overheads, and are not directly trained to model such stable estimation. They can converge poorly and thereby suffer from performance degradation. To combat these drawbacks, we propose deep equilibrium (DEQ) flow estimators, an approach that directly solves for the flow as the infinite-level fixed point of an implicit layer (using any black-box solver), and differentiates through this fixed point analytically (thus requiring $O(1)$ training memory). This implicit-depth approach is not predicated on any specific model, and thus can be applied to a wide range of SOTA flow estimation model designs. The use of these DEQ flow estimators allows us to compute the flow faster using, e.g., fixed-point reuse and inexact gradients, consumes $4\sim6\times$ times less training memory than the recurrent counterpart, and achieves better results with the same computation budget. In addition, we propose a novel, sparse fixed-point correction scheme to stabilize our DEQ flow estimators, which addresses a longstanding challenge for DEQ models in general. We test our approach in various realistic settings and show that it improves SOTA methods on Sintel and KITTI datasets with substantially better computational and memory efficiency.
The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, leading to concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address this concern, we introduce a new class of g-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and asymptotically normal for the causal effect of interest provided that a set of at least $\gamma$ out of $K$ candidate instruments are valid, for $\gamma\leq K$ set by the analyst ex ante, without necessarily knowing the identities of the valid and invalid instruments. We provide formal semiparametric efficiency theory supporting our results. Both simulation studies and applications to the UK Biobank data demonstrate the superior empirical performance of our estimators compared to competing methods.
The inverse probability (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators are often used to estimate the average causal effect (ATE), but are vulnerable to outliers. The IPW/DR median can be used for outlier-resistant estimation of the ATE, but the outlier resistance of the median is limited and it is not resistant enough for heavy contamination. We propose extensions of the IPW/DR estimators with density power weighting, which can eliminate the influence of outliers almost completely. The outlier resistance of the proposed estimators is evaluated through the unbiasedness of the estimating equations. Unlike the median-based methods, our estimators are resistant to outliers even under heavy contamination. Interestingly, the naive extension of the DR estimator requires bias correction to keep the double robustness even under the most tractable form of contamination. In addition, the proposed estimators are found to be highly resistant to outliers in more difficult settings where the contamination ratio depends on the covariates. The outlier resistance of our estimators from the viewpoint of the influence function is also favorable. Our theoretical results are verified via Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. The proposed methods were found to have more outlier resistance than the median-based methods and estimated the potential mean with a smaller error than the median-based methods.
Imposing consistency through proxy tasks has been shown to enhance data-driven learning and enable self-supervision in various tasks. This paper introduces novel and effective consistency strategies for optical flow estimation, a problem where labels from real-world data are very challenging to derive. More specifically, we propose occlusion consistency and zero forcing in the forms of self-supervised learning and transformation consistency in the form of semi-supervised learning. We apply these consistency techniques in a way that the network model learns to describe pixel-level motions better while requiring no additional annotations. We demonstrate that our consistency strategies applied to a strong baseline network model using the original datasets and labels provide further improvements, attaining the state-of-the-art results on the KITTI-2015 scene flow benchmark in the non-stereo category. Our method achieves the best foreground accuracy (4.33% in Fl-all) over both the stereo and non-stereo categories, even though using only monocular image inputs.
In variable selection, a selection rule that prescribes the permissible sets of selected variables (called a "selection dictionary") is desirable due to the inherent structural constraints among the candidate variables. The methods that can incorporate such restrictions can improve model interpretability and prediction accuracy. Penalized regression can integrate selection rules by assigning the coefficients to different groups and then applying penalties to the groups. However, no general framework has been proposed to formalize selection rules and their applications. In this work, we establish a framework for structured variable selection that can incorporate universal structural constraints. We develop a mathematical language for constructing arbitrary selection rules, where the selection dictionary is formally defined. We show that all selection rules can be represented as a combination of operations on constructs, which can be used to identify the related selection dictionary. One may then apply some criteria to select the best model. We show that the theoretical framework can help to identify the grouping structure in existing penalized regression methods. In addition, we formulate structured variable selection into mixed-integer optimization problems which can be solved by existing software. Finally, we discuss the significance of the framework in the context of statistics.
Models for dependent data are distinguished by their targets of inference. Marginal models are useful when interest lies in quantifying associations averaged across a population of clusters. When the functional form of a covariate-outcome association is unknown, flexible regression methods are needed to allow for potentially non-linear relationships. We propose a novel marginal additive model (MAM) for modelling cluster-correlated data with non-linear population-averaged associations. The proposed MAM is a unified framework for estimation and uncertainty quantification of a marginal mean model, combined with inference for between-cluster variability and cluster-specific prediction. We propose a fitting algorithm that enables efficient computation of standard errors and corrects for estimation of penalty terms. We demonstrate the proposed methods in simulations and in application to (i) a longitudinal study of beaver foraging behaviour, and (ii) a spatial analysis of Loaloa infection in West Africa. R code for implementing the proposed methodology is available at //github.com/awstringer1/mam.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Learning disentanglement aims at finding a low dimensional representation which consists of multiple explanatory and generative factors of the observational data. The framework of variational autoencoder (VAE) is commonly used to disentangle independent factors from observations. However, in real scenarios, factors with semantics are not necessarily independent. Instead, there might be an underlying causal structure which renders these factors dependent. We thus propose a new VAE based framework named CausalVAE, which includes a Causal Layer to transform independent exogenous factors into causal endogenous ones that correspond to causally related concepts in data. We further analyze the model identifiabitily, showing that the proposed model learned from observations recovers the true one up to a certain degree. Experiments are conducted on various datasets, including synthetic and real word benchmark CelebA. Results show that the causal representations learned by CausalVAE are semantically interpretable, and their causal relationship as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is identified with good accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed CausalVAE model is able to generate counterfactual data through "do-operation" to the causal factors.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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