Models for dependent data are distinguished by their targets of inference. Marginal models are useful when interest lies in quantifying associations averaged across a population of clusters. When the functional form of a covariate-outcome association is unknown, flexible regression methods are needed to allow for potentially non-linear relationships. We propose a novel marginal additive model (MAM) for modelling cluster-correlated data with non-linear population-averaged associations. The proposed MAM is a unified framework for estimation and uncertainty quantification of a marginal mean model, combined with inference for between-cluster variability and cluster-specific prediction. We propose a fitting algorithm that enables efficient computation of standard errors and corrects for estimation of penalty terms. We demonstrate the proposed methods in simulations and in application to (i) a longitudinal study of beaver foraging behaviour, and (ii) a spatial analysis of Loaloa infection in West Africa. R code for implementing the proposed methodology is available at //github.com/awstringer1/mam.
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This paper proposes a new test for a change point in the mean of high-dimensional data based on the spatial sign and self-normalization. The test is easy to implement with no tuning parameters, robust to heavy-tailedness and theoretically justified with both fixed-$n$ and sequential asymptotics under both null and alternatives, where $n$ is the sample size. We demonstrate that the fixed-$n$ asymptotics provide a better approximation to the finite sample distribution and thus should be preferred in both testing and testing-based estimation. To estimate the number and locations when multiple change-points are present, we propose to combine the p-value under the fixed-$n$ asymptotics with the seeded binary segmentation (SBS) algorithm. Through numerical experiments, we show that the spatial sign based procedures are robust with respect to the heavy-tailedness and strong coordinate-wise dependence, whereas their non-robust counterparts proposed in Wang et al. (2022) appear to under-perform. A real data example is also provided to illustrate the robustness and broad applicability of the proposed test and its corresponding estimation algorithm.
This paper investigates the problem of regret minimization in linear time-varying (LTV) dynamical systems. Due to the simultaneous presence of uncertainty and non-stationarity, designing online control algorithms for unknown LTV systems remains a challenging task. At a cost of NP-hard offline planning, prior works have introduced online convex optimization algorithms, although they suffer from nonparametric rate of regret. In this paper, we propose the first computationally tractable online algorithm with regret guarantees that avoids offline planning over the state linear feedback policies. Our algorithm is based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty (OFU) principle in which we optimistically select the best model in a high confidence region. Our algorithm is then more explorative when compared to previous approaches. To overcome non-stationarity, we propose either a restarting strategy (R-OFU) or a sliding window (SW-OFU) strategy. With proper configuration, our algorithm is attains sublinear regret $O(T^{2/3})$. These algorithms utilize data from the current phase for tracking variations on the system dynamics. We corroborate our theoretical findings with numerical experiments, which highlight the effectiveness of our methods. To the best of our knowledge, our study establishes the first model-based online algorithm with regret guarantees under LTV dynamical systems.
We propose a new iterative method using machine learning algorithms to fit an imprecise regression model to data that consist of intervals rather than point values. The method is based on a single-layer interval neural network which can be trained to produce an interval prediction. It seeks parameters for the optimal model that minimize the mean squared error between the actual and predicted interval values of the dependent variable using a first-order gradient-based optimization and interval analysis computations to model the measurement imprecision of the data. The method captures the relationship between the explanatory variables and a dependent variable by fitting an imprecise regression model, which is linear with respect to unknown interval parameters even the regression model is nonlinear. We consider the explanatory variables to be precise point values, but the measured dependent values are characterized by interval bounds without any probabilistic information. Thus, the imprecision is modeled non-probabilistically even while the scatter of dependent values is modeled probabilistically by homoscedastic Gaussian distributions. The proposed iterative method estimates the lower and upper bounds of the expectation region, which is an envelope of all possible precise regression lines obtained by ordinary regression analysis based on any configuration of real-valued points from the respective intervals and their x-values.
The application of AI in finance is increasingly dependent on the principles of responsible AI. These principles - explainability, fairness, privacy, accountability, transparency and soundness form the basis for trust in future AI systems. In this study, we address the first principle by providing an explanation for a deep neural network that is trained on a mixture of numerical, categorical and textual inputs for financial transaction classification. The explanation is achieved through (1) a feature importance analysis using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) and (2) a hybrid approach of text clustering and decision tree classifiers. We then test the robustness of the model by exposing it to a targeted evasion attack, leveraging the knowledge we gained about the model through the extracted explanation.
We revisit the classical problem of finding an approximately stationary point of the average of $n$ smooth and possibly nonconvex functions. The optimal complexity of stochastic first-order methods in terms of the number of gradient evaluations of individual functions is $\mathcal{O}\left(n + n^{1/2}\varepsilon^{-1}\right)$, attained by the optimal SGD methods $\small\sf\color{green}{SPIDER}$(arXiv:1807.01695) and $\small\sf\color{green}{PAGE}$(arXiv:2008.10898), for example, where $\varepsilon$ is the error tolerance. However, i) the big-$\mathcal{O}$ notation hides crucial dependencies on the smoothness constants associated with the functions, and ii) the rates and theory in these methods assume simplistic sampling mechanisms that do not offer any flexibility. In this work we remedy the situation. First, we generalize the $\small\sf\color{green}{PAGE}$ algorithm so that it can provably work with virtually any (unbiased) sampling mechanism. This is particularly useful in federated learning, as it allows us to construct and better understand the impact of various combinations of client and data sampling strategies. Second, our analysis is sharper as we make explicit use of certain novel inequalities that capture the intricate interplay between the smoothness constants and the sampling procedure. Indeed, our analysis is better even for the simple sampling procedure analyzed in the $\small\sf\color{green}{PAGE}$ paper. However, this already improved bound can be further sharpened by a different sampling scheme which we propose. In summary, we provide the most general and most accurate analysis of optimal SGD in the smooth nonconvex regime. Finally, our theoretical findings are supposed with carefully designed experiments.
Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the continuous treatment regime. Scalable sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to understand the ignorance induced in causal estimates when these assumptions are relaxed are less studied. Here, we develop a continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM) and derive bounds that agree with the observed data and a researcher-defined level of hidden confounding. We introduce a scalable algorithm and uncertainty-aware deep models to derive and estimate these bounds for high-dimensional, large-sample observational data. We work in concert with climate scientists interested in the climatological impacts of human emissions on cloud properties using satellite observations from the past 15 years. This problem is known to be complicated by many unobserved confounders.
The synthetic control method has become a widely popular tool to estimate causal effects with observational data. Despite this, inference for synthetic control methods remains challenging. Often, inferential results rely on linear factor model data generating processes. In this paper, we characterize the conditions on the factor model primitives (the factor loadings) for which the statistical risk minimizers are synthetic controls (in the simplex). Then, we propose a Bayesian alternative to the synthetic control method that preserves the main features of the standard method and provides a new way of doing valid inference. We explore a Bernstein-von Mises style result to link our Bayesian inference to the frequentist inference. For linear factor model frameworks we show that a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the synthetic control weights can consistently estimate the predictive function of the potential outcomes for the treated unit and that our Bayes estimator is asymptotically close to the MLE in the total variation sense. Through simulations, we show that there is convergence between the Bayes and frequentist approach even in sparse settings. Finally, we apply the method to re-visit the study of the economic costs of the German re-unification. The Bayesian synthetic control method is available in the bsynth R-package.
Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) have been widely used in image classification. Over the years, they have also benefited from various enhancements and they are now considered as state of the art techniques for image like data. However, when they are used for regression to estimate some function value from images, fewer recommendations are available. In this study, a novel CNN regression model is proposed. It combines convolutional neural layers to extract high level features representations from images with a soft labelling technique. More specifically, as the deep regression task is challenging, the idea is to account for some uncertainty in the targets that are seen as distributions around their mean. The estimations are carried out by the model in the form of distributions. Building from earlier work, a specific histogram loss function based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is applied during training. The model takes advantage of the CNN feature representation and is able to carry out estimation from multi-channel input images. To assess and illustrate the technique, the model is applied to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) multi-path estimation where multi-path signal parameters have to be estimated from correlator output images from the I and Q channels. The multi-path signal delay, magnitude, Doppler shift frequency and phase parameters are estimated from synthetically generated datasets of satellite signals. Experiments are conducted under various receiving conditions and various input images resolutions to test the estimation performances quality and robustness. The results show that the proposed soft labelling CNN technique using distributional loss outperforms classical CNN regression under all conditions. Furthermore, the extra learning performance achieved by the model allows the reduction of input image resolution from 80x80 down to 40x40 or sometimes 20x20.
This paper promotes the use of random forests as versatile tools for estimating spatially disaggregated indicators in the presence of small area-specific sample sizes. Small area estimators are predominantly conceptualized within the regression-setting and rely on linear mixed models to account for the hierarchical structure of the survey data. In contrast, machine learning methods offer non-linear and non-parametric alternatives, combining excellent predictive performance and a reduced risk of model-misspecification. Mixed effects random forests combine advantages of regression forests with the ability to model hierarchical dependencies. This paper provides a coherent framework based on mixed effects random forests for estimating small area averages and proposes a non-parametric bootstrap estimator for assessing the uncertainty of the estimates. We illustrate advantages of our proposed methodology using Mexican income-data from the state Nuevo Le\'on. Finally, the methodology is evaluated in model-based and design-based simulations comparing the proposed methodology to traditional regression-based approaches for estimating small area averages.
Cold-start problems are long-standing challenges for practical recommendations. Most existing recommendation algorithms rely on extensive observed data and are brittle to recommendation scenarios with few interactions. This paper addresses such problems using few-shot learning and meta learning. Our approach is based on the insight that having a good generalization from a few examples relies on both a generic model initialization and an effective strategy for adapting this model to newly arising tasks. To accomplish this, we combine the scenario-specific learning with a model-agnostic sequential meta-learning and unify them into an integrated end-to-end framework, namely Scenario-specific Sequential Meta learner (or s^2 meta). By doing so, our meta-learner produces a generic initial model through aggregating contextual information from a variety of prediction tasks while effectively adapting to specific tasks by leveraging learning-to-learn knowledge. Extensive experiments on various real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed model can achieve significant gains over the state-of-the-arts for cold-start problems in online recommendation. Deployment is at the Guess You Like session, the front page of the Mobile Taobao.
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