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Changing conditions or environments can cause system dynamics to vary over time. To ensure optimal control performance, controllers should adapt to these changes. When the underlying cause and time of change is unknown, we need to rely on online data for this adaptation. In this paper, we will use time-varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO) to tune controllers online in changing environments using appropriate prior knowledge on the control objective and its changes. Two properties are characteristic of many online controller tuning problems: First, they exhibit incremental and lasting changes in the objective due to changes to the system dynamics, e.g., through wear and tear. Second, the optimization problem is convex in the tuning parameters. Current TVBO methods do not explicitly account for these properties, resulting in poor tuning performance and many unstable controllers through over-exploration of the parameter space. We propose a novel TVBO forgetting strategy using Uncertainty-Injection (UI), which incorporates the assumption of incremental and lasting changes. The control objective is modeled as a spatio-temporal Gaussian process (GP) with UI through a Wiener process in the temporal domain. Further, we explicitly model the convexity assumptions in the spatial dimension through GP models with linear inequality constraints. In numerical experiments, we show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art method in TVBO, exhibiting reduced regret and fewer unstable parameter configurations.

Traffic speed prediction is the key to many valuable applications, and it is also a challenging task because of its various influencing factors. Recent work attempts to obtain more information through various hybrid models, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. However, the spatial information acquisition schemes of these methods have two-level differentiation problems. Either the modeling is simple but contains little spatial information, or the modeling is complete but lacks flexibility. In order to introduce more spatial information on the basis of ensuring flexibility, this paper proposes IRNet (Transferable Intersection Reconstruction Network). First, this paper reconstructs the intersection into a virtual intersection with the same structure, which simplifies the topology of the road network. Then, the spatial information is subdivided into intersection information and sequence information of traffic flow direction, and spatiotemporal features are obtained through various models. Third, a self-attention mechanism is used to fuse spatiotemporal features for prediction. In the comparison experiment with the baseline, not only the prediction effect, but also the transfer performance has obvious advantages.

In this paper we propose a new time-varying econometric model, called Time-Varying Poisson AutoRegressive with eXogenous covariates (TV-PARX), suited to model and forecast time series of counts. {We show that the score-driven framework is particularly suitable to recover the evolution of time-varying parameters and provides the required flexibility to model and forecast time series of counts characterized by convoluted nonlinear dynamics and structural breaks.} We study the asymptotic properties of the TV-PARX model and prove that, under mild conditions, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) yields strongly consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimates. Finite-sample performance and forecasting accuracy are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical usefulness of the time-varying specification of the proposed TV-PARX model is shown by analyzing the number of new daily COVID-19 infections in Italy and the number of corporate defaults in the US.

This study contributes to the recent discussions on indicating interdisciplinarity, i.e., going beyond mere metrics of interdisciplinarity. We propose a multi-dimensional and contextual framework to improve the granularity and usability of the existing methodology for quantifying the interdisciplinary knowledge flow (IKF) in which scientific disciplines import and export knowledge from/to other disciplines. To characterize the knowledge exchange between disciplines, we recognize three dimensions under this framework, namely, broadness, intensity, and heterogeneity. We show that each dimension covers a different aspect of IKF, especially between disciplines with the largest volume of IKF, and can assist in uncovering different types of interdisciplinarity. We apply this framework in two use cases, one at the level of disciplines and one at the level of journals, to show how it can offer a more holistic and detailed viewpoint on the interdisciplinarity of scientific entities than plain citation counts. We further compare our proposed framework, an indicating process, with established indicators and discuss how such information tools on interdisciplinarity can assist science policy practices such as performance-based research funding systems and panel-based peer review processes.

Due to their inference, data representation and reconstruction properties, Variational Autoencoders (VAE) have been successfully used in continual learning classification tasks. However, their ability to generate images with specifications corresponding to the classes and databases learned during Continual Learning (CL) is not well understood and catastrophic forgetting remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we firstly analyze the forgetting behaviour of VAEs by developing a new theoretical framework that formulates CL as a dynamic optimal transport problem. This framework proves approximate bounds to the data likelihood without requiring the task information and explains how the prior knowledge is lost during the training process. We then propose a novel memory buffering approach, namely the Online Cooperative Memorization (OCM) framework, which consists of a Short-Term Memory (STM) that continually stores recent samples to provide future information for the model, and a Long-Term Memory (LTM) aiming to preserve a wide diversity of samples. The proposed OCM transfers certain samples from STM to LTM according to the information diversity selection criterion without requiring any supervised signals. The OCM framework is then combined with a dynamic VAE expansion mixture network for further enhancing its performance.

A time-varying zero-inflated serially dependent Poisson process is proposed. The model assumes that the intensity of the Poisson Process evolves according to a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) formulation. The proposed model is a generalization of the zero-inflated Poisson Integer GARCH model proposed by Fukang Zhu in 2012, which in return is a generalization of the Integer GARCH (INGARCH) model introduced by Ferland, Latour, and Oraichi in 2006. The proposed model builds on previous work by allowing the zero-inflation parameter to vary over time, governed by a deterministic function or by an exogenous variable. Both the Expectation Maximization (EM) and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approaches are presented as possible estimation methods. A simulation study shows that both parameter estimation methods provide good estimates. Applications to two real-life data sets show that the proposed INGARCH model provides a better fit than the traditional zero-inflated INGARCH model in the cases considered.

Teleoperation is a widely adopted strategy to control robotic manipulators executing complex tasks that require highly dexterous movements and critical high-level intelligence. Classical teleoperation schemes are based on either joystick control, or on more intuitive interfaces which map directly the user arm motions into one robot arm's motions. These approaches have limits when the execution of a given task requires reconfigurable multiple robotic arm systems. Indeed, the simultaneous teleoperation of two or more robot arms could extend the workspace of the manipulation cell, or increase its total payload, or afford other advantages. In different phases of a reconfigurable multi-arm system, each robot could act as an independent arm, or as one of a pair of cooperating arms, or as one of the fingers of a virtual, large robot hand. This manuscript proposes a novel telemanipulation framework that enables both the individual and combined control of any number of robotic arms. Thanks to the designed control architecture, the human operator can intuitively choose the proposed control modalities and the manipulators that make the task convenient to execute through the user interface. Moreover, through the tele-impedance paradigm, the system can address complex tasks that require physical interaction by letting the robot mimic the arm impedance and position references of the human operator. The proposed framework is validated with 8 subjects controlling 4 Franka Emika Panda robots with 7-DoFs to execute a telemanipulation task. Qualitative results of the experiments show us the promising applicability of our framework.

In model extraction attacks, adversaries can steal a machine learning model exposed via a public API by repeatedly querying it and adjusting their own model based on obtained predictions. To prevent model stealing, existing defenses focus on detecting malicious queries, truncating, or distorting outputs, thus necessarily introducing a tradeoff between robustness and model utility for legitimate users. Instead, we propose to impede model extraction by requiring users to complete a proof-of-work before they can read the model's predictions. This deters attackers by greatly increasing (even up to 100x) the computational effort needed to leverage query access for model extraction. Since we calibrate the effort required to complete the proof-of-work to each query, this only introduces a slight overhead for regular users (up to 2x). To achieve this, our calibration applies tools from differential privacy to measure the information revealed by a query. Our method requires no modification of the victim model and can be applied by machine learning practitioners to guard their publicly exposed models against being easily stolen.

In a desired environmental protection system, groundwater may not be excluded. In addition to the problem of over-exploitation, in total disagreement with the concept of sustainable development, another not negligible issue concerns the groundwater contamination. Mainly, this aspect is due to intensive agricultural activities or industrialized areas. In literature, several papers have dealt with transport problem, especially for inverse problems in which the release history or the source location are identified. The innovative aim of the paper is to develop a data-driven model that is able to analyze multiple scenarios, even strongly non-linear, in order to solve forward and inverse transport problems, preserving the reliability of the results and reducing the uncertainty. Furthermore, this tool has the characteristic of providing extremely fast responses, essential to identify remediation strategies immediately. The advantages produced by the model were compared with literature studies. In this regard, a feedforward artificial neural network, which has been trained to handle different cases, represents the data-driven model. Firstly, to identify the concentration of the pollutant at specific observation points in the study area (forward problem); secondly, to deal with inverse problems identifying the release history at known source location; then, in case of one contaminant source, identifying the release history and, at the same time, the location of the source in a specific sub-domain of the investigated area. At last, the observation error is investigated and estimated. The results are satisfactorily achieved, highlighting the capability of the ANN to deal with multiple scenarios by approximating nonlinear functions without the physical point of view that describes the phenomenon, providing reliable results, with very low computational burden and uncertainty.

Transfer learning aims at improving the performance of target learners on target domains by transferring the knowledge contained in different but related source domains. In this way, the dependence on a large number of target domain data can be reduced for constructing target learners. Due to the wide application prospects, transfer learning has become a popular and promising area in machine learning. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on transfer learning, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in transfer learning. As the rapid expansion of the transfer learning area, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing transfer learning researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. Different from previous surveys, this survey paper reviews over forty representative transfer learning approaches from the perspectives of data and model. The applications of transfer learning are also briefly introduced. In order to show the performance of different transfer learning models, twenty representative transfer learning models are used for experiments. The models are performed on three different datasets, i.e., Amazon Reviews, Reuters-21578, and Office-31. And the experimental results demonstrate the importance of selecting appropriate transfer learning models for different applications in practice.