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The training of high-dimensional regression models on comparably sparse data is an important yet complicated topic, especially when there are many more model parameters than observations in the data. From a Bayesian perspective, inference in such cases can be achieved with the help of shrinkage prior distributions, at least for generalized linear models. However, real-world data usually possess multilevel structures, such as repeated measurements or natural groupings of individuals, which existing shrinkage priors are not built to deal with. We generalize and extend one of these priors, the R2D2 prior by Zhang et al. (2020), to linear multilevel models leading to what we call the R2D2M2 prior. The proposed prior enables both local and global shrinkage of the model parameters. It comes with interpretable hyperparameters, which we show to be intrinsically related to vital properties of the prior, such as rates of concentration around the origin, tail behavior, and amount of shrinkage the prior exerts. We offer guidelines on how to select the prior's hyperparameters by deriving shrinkage factors and measuring the effective number of non-zero model coefficients. Hence, the user can readily evaluate and interpret the amount of shrinkage implied by a specific choice of hyperparameters. Finally, we perform extensive experiments on simulated and real data, showing that our inference procedure for the prior is well calibrated, has desirable global and local regularization properties and enables the reliable and interpretable estimation of much more complex Bayesian multilevel models than was previously possible.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · MoDELS · 核化 · 推斷 · 排序 ·
2023 年 8 月 5 日

The dynamic ranking, due to its increasing importance in many applications, is becoming crucial, especially with the collection of voluminous time-dependent data. One such application is sports statistics, where dynamic ranking aids in forecasting the performance of competitive teams, drawing on historical and current data. Despite its usefulness, predicting and inferring rankings pose challenges in environments necessitating time-dependent modeling. This paper introduces a spectral ranker called Kernel Rank Centrality, designed to rank items based on pairwise comparisons over time. The ranker operates via kernel smoothing in the Bradley-Terry model, utilizing a Markov chain model. Unlike the maximum likelihood approach, the spectral ranker is nonparametric, demands fewer model assumptions and computations, and allows for real-time ranking. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the ranker by applying an innovative group inverse technique, resulting in a uniform and precise entrywise expansion. This result allows us to devise a new inferential method for predictive inference, previously unavailable in existing approaches. Our numerical examples showcase the ranker's utility in predictive accuracy and constructing an uncertainty measure for prediction, leveraging data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The results underscore our method's potential compared to the gold standard in sports, the Arpad Elo rating system.

The diffusion model is capable of generating high-quality data through a probabilistic approach. However, it suffers from the drawback of slow generation speed due to the requirement of a large number of time steps. To address this limitation, recent models such as denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIM) focus on generating samples without directly modeling the probability distribution, while models like denoising diffusion generative adversarial networks (GAN) combine diffusion processes with GANs. In the field of speech synthesis, a recent diffusion speech synthesis model called DiffGAN-TTS, utilizing the structure of GANs, has been introduced and demonstrates superior performance in both speech quality and generation speed. In this paper, to further enhance the performance of DiffGAN-TTS, we propose a speech synthesis model with two discriminators: a diffusion discriminator for learning the distribution of the reverse process and a spectrogram discriminator for learning the distribution of the generated data. Objective metrics such as structural similarity index measure (SSIM), mel-cepstral distortion (MCD), F0 root mean squared error (F0 RMSE), short-time objective intelligibility (STOI), perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ), as well as subjective metrics like mean opinion score (MOS), are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The evaluation results show that the proposed model outperforms recent state-of-the-art models such as FastSpeech2 and DiffGAN-TTS in various metrics. Our implementation and audio samples are located on GitHub.

The prominent progress in generative models has significantly improved the reality of generated faces, bringing serious concerns to society. Since recent GAN-generated faces are in high realism, the forgery traces have become more imperceptible, increasing the forensics challenge. To combat GAN-generated faces, many countermeasures based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been spawned due to their strong learning ability. In this paper, we rethink this problem and explore a new approach based on forest models instead of CNNs. Specifically, we describe a simple and effective forest-based method set called {\em ForensicsForest Family} to detect GAN-generate faces. The proposed ForensicsForest family is composed of three variants, which are {\em ForensicsForest}, {\em Hybrid ForensicsForest} and {\em Divide-and-Conquer ForensicsForest} respectively. ForenscisForest is a newly proposed Multi-scale Hierarchical Cascade Forest, which takes semantic, frequency and biology features as input, hierarchically cascades different levels of features for authenticity prediction, and then employs a multi-scale ensemble scheme that can comprehensively consider different levels of information to improve the performance further. Based on ForensicsForest, we develop Hybrid ForensicsForest, an extended version that integrates the CNN layers into models, to further refine the effectiveness of augmented features. Moreover, to reduce the memory cost in training, we propose Divide-and-Conquer ForensicsForest, which can construct a forest model using only a portion of training samplings. In the training stage, we train several candidate forest models using the subsets of training samples. Then a ForensicsForest is assembled by picking the suitable components from these candidate forest models...

In the past few years, the emergence of pre-training models has brought uni-modal fields such as computer vision (CV) and natural language processing (NLP) to a new era. Substantial works have shown they are beneficial for downstream uni-modal tasks and avoid training a new model from scratch. So can such pre-trained models be applied to multi-modal tasks? Researchers have explored this problem and made significant progress. This paper surveys recent advances and new frontiers in vision-language pre-training (VLP), including image-text and video-text pre-training. To give readers a better overall grasp of VLP, we first review its recent advances from five aspects: feature extraction, model architecture, pre-training objectives, pre-training datasets, and downstream tasks. Then, we summarize the specific VLP models in detail. Finally, we discuss the new frontiers in VLP. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first survey on VLP. We hope that this survey can shed light on future research in the VLP field.

Traffic forecasting is an important factor for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been applied in traffic forecasting problems to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in the transportation systems as well as the contextual information, graph neural networks (GNNs) are introduced as new tools and have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of recent research using different GNNs, e.g., graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g., road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms, etc. We also present a collection of open data and source resources for each problem, as well as future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public Github repository to update the latest papers, open data and source resources.

Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.

Recently, the emergence of pre-trained models (PTMs) has brought natural language processing (NLP) to a new era. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of PTMs for NLP. We first briefly introduce language representation learning and its research progress. Then we systematically categorize existing PTMs based on a taxonomy with four perspectives. Next, we describe how to adapt the knowledge of PTMs to the downstream tasks. Finally, we outline some potential directions of PTMs for future research. This survey is purposed to be a hands-on guide for understanding, using, and developing PTMs for various NLP tasks.

Language model pre-training, such as BERT, has significantly improved the performances of many natural language processing tasks. However, pre-trained language models are usually computationally expensive and memory intensive, so it is difficult to effectively execute them on some resource-restricted devices. To accelerate inference and reduce model size while maintaining accuracy, we firstly propose a novel transformer distillation method that is a specially designed knowledge distillation (KD) method for transformer-based models. By leveraging this new KD method, the plenty of knowledge encoded in a large teacher BERT can be well transferred to a small student TinyBERT. Moreover, we introduce a new two-stage learning framework for TinyBERT, which performs transformer distillation at both the pre-training and task-specific learning stages. This framework ensures that TinyBERT can capture both the general-domain and task-specific knowledge of the teacher BERT. TinyBERT is empirically effective and achieves comparable results with BERT in GLUE datasets, while being 7.5x smaller and 9.4x faster on inference. TinyBERT is also significantly better than state-of-the-art baselines, even with only about 28% parameters and 31% inference time of baselines.

We present Emu, a system that semantically enhances multilingual sentence embeddings. Our framework fine-tunes pre-trained multilingual sentence embeddings using two main components: a semantic classifier and a language discriminator. The semantic classifier improves the semantic similarity of related sentences, whereas the language discriminator enhances the multilinguality of the embeddings via multilingual adversarial training. Our experimental results based on several language pairs show that our specialized embeddings outperform the state-of-the-art multilingual sentence embedding model on the task of cross-lingual intent classification using only monolingual labeled data.

Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.

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