In this note, we reconsider Cohen's effect size measure $f^2$ under linear mixed models and demonstrate its application by employing an artificially generated data set. It is shown how $f^2$ can be computed with the statistical software environment R using lme4 without the need for specification and computation of a coefficient of determination.
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In many applications in biology, engineering and economics, identifying similarities and differences between distributions of data from complex processes requires comparing finite categorical samples of discrete counts. Statistical divergences quantify the difference between two distributions. However, their estimation is very difficult and empirical methods often fail, especially when the samples are small. We develop a Bayesian estimator of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two probability distributions that makes use of a mixture of Dirichlet priors on the distributions being compared. We study the properties of the estimator on two examples: probabilities drawn from Dirichlet distributions, and random strings of letters drawn from Markov chains. We extend the approach to the squared Hellinger divergence. Both estimators outperform other estimation techniques, with better results for data with a large number of categories and for higher values of divergences.
The logistic regression model is one of the most popular data generation model in noisy binary classification problems. In this work, we study the sample complexity of estimating the parameters of the logistic regression model up to a given $\ell_2$ error, in terms of the dimension and the inverse temperature, with standard normal covariates. The inverse temperature controls the signal-to-noise ratio of the data generation process. While both generalization bounds and asymptotic performance of the maximum-likelihood estimator for logistic regression are well-studied, the non-asymptotic sample complexity that shows the dependence on error and the inverse temperature for parameter estimation is absent from previous analyses. We show that the sample complexity curve has two change-points (or critical points) in terms of the inverse temperature, clearly separating the low, moderate, and high temperature regimes.
Approximating significance scans of searches for new particles in high-energy physics experiments as Gaussian fields is a well-established way to estimate the trials factors required to quantify global significances. We propose a novel, highly efficient method to estimate the covariance matrix of such a Gaussian field. The method is based on the linear approximation of statistical fluctuations of the signal amplitude. For one-dimensional searches the upper bound on the trials factor can then be calculated directly from the covariance matrix. For higher dimensions, the Gaussian process described by this covariance matrix may be sampled to calculate the trials factor directly. This method also serves as the theoretical basis for a recent study of the trials factor with an empirically constructed set of Asmiov-like background datasets. We illustrate the method with studies of a $H \rightarrow \gamma \gamma$ inspired model that was used in the empirical paper.
Consider a diffusion process X=(X_t), with t in [0,1], observed at discrete times and high frequency, solution of a stochastic differential equation whose drift and diffusion coefficients are assumed to be unknown. In this article, we focus on the nonparametric esstimation of the diffusion coefficient. We propose ridge estimators of the square of the diffusion coefficient from discrete observations of X and that are obtained by minimization of the least squares contrast. We prove that the estimators are consistent and derive rates of convergence as the size of the sample paths tends to infinity, and the discretization step of the time interval [0,1] tend to zero. The theoretical results are completed with a numerical study over synthetic data.
For many statistical experiments, there exists a multitude of optimal designs. If we consider models with uncorrelated observations and adopt the approach of approximate experimental design, the set of all optimal designs typically forms a multivariate polytope. In this paper, we mathematically characterize the polytope of optimal designs. In particular, we show that its vertices correspond to the so-called minimal optimum designs. Consequently, we compute the vertices for several classical multifactor regression models of the first and the second degree. To this end, we use software tools based on rational arithmetic; therefore, the computed list is accurate and complete. The polytope of optimal experimental designs, and its vertices, can be applied in several ways. For instance, it can aid in constructing cost-efficient and efficient exact designs.
Hardware trends have motivated the development of mixed precision algo-rithms in numerical linear algebra, which aim to decrease runtime while maintaining acceptable accuracy. One recent development is the development of an adaptive precision sparse matrix-vector produce routine, which may be used to accelerate the solution of sparse linear systems by iterative methods. This approach is also applicable to the application of inexact preconditioners, such as sparse approximate inverse preconditioners used in Krylov subspace methods. In this work, we develop an adaptive precision sparse approximate inverse preconditioner and demonstrate its use within a five-precision GMRES-based iterative refinement method. We call this algorithm variant BSPAI-GMRES-IR. We then analyze the conditions for the convergence of BSPAI-GMRES-IR, and determine settings under which BSPAI-GMRES-IR will produce similar backward and forward errors as the existing SPAI-GMRES-IR method, the latter of which does not use adaptive precision in preconditioning. Our numerical experiments show that this approach can potentially lead to a reduction in the cost of storing and applying sparse approximate inverse preconditioners, although a significant reduction in cost may comes at the expense of increasing the number of GMRES iterations required for convergence.
Quantiles of a natural phenomena can provide scientists with an important understanding of different spreads of concentrations. When there are several available robots, it may be advantageous to pool resources in a collaborative way to improve performance. A multirobot team can be difficult to practically bring together and coordinate. To this end, we present a study across several axes of the impact of using multiple robots to estimate quantiles of a distribution of interest using an informative path planning formulation. We measure quantile estimation accuracy with increasing team size to understand what benefits result from a multirobot approach in a drone exploration task of analyzing the algae concentration in lakes. We additionally perform an analysis on several parameters, including the spread of robot initial positions, the planning budget, and inter-robot communication, and find that while using more robots generally results in lower estimation error, this benefit is achieved under certain conditions. We present our findings in the context of real field robotic applications and discuss the implications of the results and interesting directions for future work.
This paper is devoted to the statistical and numerical properties of the geometric median, and its applications to the problem of robust mean estimation via the median of means principle. Our main theoretical results include (a) an upper bound for the distance between the mean and the median for general absolutely continuous distributions in R^d, and examples of specific classes of distributions for which these bounds do not depend on the ambient dimension $d$; (b) exponential deviation inequalities for the distance between the sample and the population versions of the geometric median, which again depend only on the trace-type quantities and not on the ambient dimension. As a corollary, we deduce improved bounds for the (geometric) median of means estimator that hold for large classes of heavy-tailed distributions. Finally, we address the error of numerical approximation, which is an important practical aspect of any statistical estimation procedure. We demonstrate that the objective function minimized by the geometric median satisfies a "local quadratic growth" condition that allows one to translate suboptimality bounds for the objective function to the corresponding bounds for the numerical approximation to the median itself. As a corollary, we propose a simple stopping rule (applicable to any optimization method) which yields explicit error guarantees. We conclude with the numerical experiments including the application to estimation of mean values of log-returns for S&P 500 data.
Ridge regression is a popular method for dense least squares regularization. In this work, ridge regression is studied in the context of VAR model estimation and inference. The implications of anisotropic penalization are discussed and a comparison is made with Bayesian ridge-type estimators. The asymptotic distribution and the properties of cross-validation techniques are analyzed. Finally, the estimation of impulse response functions is evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations and ridge regression is compared with a number of similar and competing methods.
Forward simulation-based uncertainty quantification that studies the distribution of quantities of interest (QoI) is a crucial component for computationally robust engineering design and prediction. There is a large body of literature devoted to accurately assessing statistics of QoIs, and in particular, multilevel or multifidelity approaches are known to be effective, leveraging cost-accuracy tradeoffs between a given ensemble of models. However, effective algorithms that can estimate the full distribution of QoIs are still under active development. In this paper, we introduce a general multifidelity framework for estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a vector-valued QoI associated with a high-fidelity model under a budget constraint. Given a family of appropriate control variates obtained from lower-fidelity surrogates, our framework involves identifying the most cost-effective model subset and then using it to build an approximate control variates estimator for the target CDF. We instantiate the framework by constructing a family of control variates using intermediate linear approximators and rigorously analyze the corresponding algorithm. Our analysis reveals that the resulting CDF estimator is uniformly consistent and asymptotically optimal as the budget tends to infinity, with only mild moment and regularity assumptions on the joint distribution of QoIs. The approach provides a robust multifidelity CDF estimator that is adaptive to the available budget, does not require \textit{a priori} knowledge of cross-model statistics or model hierarchy, and applies to multiple dimensions. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the approach using test examples of parametric PDEs and stochastic differential equations including both academic instances and more challenging engineering problems.
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