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Estimating the probability of the binomial distribution is a basic problem, which appears in almost all introductory statistics courses and is performed frequently in various studies. In some cases, the parameter of interest is a difference between two probabilities, and the current work studies the construction of confidence intervals for this parameter when the sample size is small. Our goal is to find the shortest confidence intervals under the constraint of coverage probability being larger than a predetermined level. For the two-sample case, there is no known algorithm that achieves this goal, but different heuristics procedures have been suggested, and the present work aims at finding optimal confidence intervals. In the one-sample case, there is a known algorithm that finds optimal confidence intervals presented by Blyth and Still (1983). It is based on solving small and local optimization problems and then using an inversion step to find the global optimum solution. We show that this approach fails in the two-sample case and therefore, in order to find optimal confidence intervals, one needs to solve a global optimization problem, rather than small and local ones, which is computationally much harder. We present and discuss the suitable global optimization problem. Using the Gurobi package we find near-optimal solutions when the sample sizes are smaller than 15, and we compare these solutions to some existing methods, both approximate and exact. We find that the improvement in terms of lengths with respect to the best competitor varies between 1.5\% and 5\% for different parameters of the problem. Therefore, we recommend the use of the new confidence intervals when both sample sizes are smaller than 15. Tables of the confidence intervals are given in the Excel file in this link.

In spatial regression models, spatial heterogeneity may be considered with either continuous or discrete specifications. The latter is related to delineation of spatially connected regions with homogeneous relationships between variables (spatial regimes). Although various regionalization algorithms have been proposed and studied in the field of spatial analytics, methods to optimize spatial regimes have been largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose two new algorithms for spatial regime delineation, two-stage K-Models and Regional-K-Models. We also extend the classic Automatic Zoning Procedure to spatial regression context. The proposed algorithms are applied to a series of synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets. Results indicate that all three algorithms achieve superior or comparable performance to existing approaches, while the two-stage K-Models algorithm largely outperforms existing approaches on model fitting, region reconstruction, and coefficient estimation. Our work enriches the spatial analytics toolbox to explore spatial heterogeneous processes.

As the development of formal proofs is a time-consuming task, it is important to devise ways of sharing the already written proofs to prevent wasting time redoing them. One of the challenges in this domain is to translate proofs written in proof assistants based on impredicative logics to proof assistants based on predicative logics, whenever impredicativity is not used in an essential way. In this paper we present a transformation for sharing proofs with a core predicative system supporting prenex universe polymorphism (like in Agda). It consists in trying to elaborate each term into a predicative universe polymorphic term as general as possible. The use of universe polymorphism is justified by the fact that mapping each universe to a fixed one in the target theory is not sufficient in most cases. During the elaboration, we need to solve unification problems in the equational theory of universe levels. In order to do this, we give a complete characterization of when a single equation admits a most general unifier. This characterization is then employed in an algorithm which uses a constraint-postponement strategy to solve unification problems. The proposed translation is of course partial, but in practice allows one to translate many proofs that do not use impredicativity in an essential way. Indeed, it was implemented in the tool Predicativize and then used to translate semi-automatically many non-trivial developments from Matita's library to Agda, including proofs of Bertrand's Postulate and Fermat's Little Theorem, which (as far as we know) were not available in Agda yet.

In this article we provide a constant factor approximation for the $(p,3)$-flexible graph connectivity problem, improving on the previous best known $O(p)$-approximation.

Step selection functions (SSFs) are flexible models to jointly describe animals' movement and habitat preferences. Their popularity has grown rapidly and extensions have been developed to increase their utility, including various distributions to describe movement constraints, interactions to allow movements to depend on local environmental features, and random effects and latent states to account for within- and among-individual variability. Although the SSF is a relatively simple statistical model, its presentation has not been consistent in the literature, leading to confusion about model flexibility and interpretation. We believe that part of the confusion has arisen from the conflation of the SSF model with the methods used for parameter estimation. Notably, conditional logistic regression can be used to fit SSFs in exponential form, and this approach is often presented interchangeably with the actual model (the SSF itself). However, reliance on conditional logistic regression reduces model flexibility, and suggests a misleading interpretation of step selection analysis as being equivalent to a case-control study. In this review, we explicitly distinguish between model formulation and inference technique, presenting a coherent framework to fit SSFs based on numerical integration and maximum likelihood estimation. We provide an overview of common numerical integration techniques, and explain how they relate to step selection analyses. This framework unifies different model fitting techniques for SSFs, and opens the way for improved inference. In particular, it makes it straightforward to model movement with distributions outside the exponential family, and to apply different SSF formulations to a data set and compare them with AIC. By separating the model formulation from the inference technique, we hope to clarify many important concepts in step selection analysis.

High-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are a popular mathematical modelling tool, with applications ranging from finance to computational chemistry. However, standard numerical techniques for solving these PDEs are typically affected by the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we tackle this challenge while focusing on stationary diffusion equations defined over a high-dimensional domain with periodic boundary conditions. Inspired by recent progress in sparse function approximation in high dimensions, we propose a new method called compressive Fourier collocation. Combining ideas from compressive sensing and spectral collocation, our method replaces the use of structured collocation grids with Monte Carlo sampling and employs sparse recovery techniques, such as orthogonal matching pursuit and $\ell^1$ minimization, to approximate the Fourier coefficients of the PDE solution. We conduct a rigorous theoretical analysis showing that the approximation error of the proposed method is comparable with the best $s$-term approximation (with respect to the Fourier basis) to the solution. Using the recently introduced framework of random sampling in bounded Riesz systems, our analysis shows that the compressive Fourier collocation method mitigates the curse of dimensionality with respect to the number of collocation points under sufficient conditions on the regularity of the diffusion coefficient. We also present numerical experiments that illustrate the accuracy and stability of the method for the approximation of sparse and compressible solutions.

Enumeration problems are often encountered as key subroutines in the exact computation of graph parameters such as chromatic number, treewidth, or treedepth. In the case of treedepth computation, the enumeration of inclusion-wise minimal separators plays a crucial role. However and quite surprisingly, the complexity status of this problem has not been settled since it has been posed as an open direction by Kloks and Kratsch in 1998. Recently at the PACE 2020 competition dedicated to treedepth computation, solvers have been circumventing that by listing all minimal $a$-$b$ separators and filtering out those that are not inclusion-wise minimal, at the cost of efficiency. Naturally, having an efficient algorithm for listing inclusion-wise minimal separators would drastically improve such practical algorithms. In this note, however, we show that no efficient algorithm is to be expected from an output-sensitive perspective, namely, we prove that there is no output-polynomial time algorithm for inclusion-wise minimal separators enumeration unless P = NP.

One of the central problems in neuroscience is understanding how brain structure relates to function. Naively one can relate the direct connections of white matter fiber tracts between brain regions of interest (ROIs) to the increased co-activation in the same pair of ROIs, but the link between structural and functional connectomes (SCs and FCs) has proven to be much more complex. To learn a realistic generative model characterizing population variation in SCs, FCs, and the SC-FC coupling, we develop a graph auto-encoder that we refer to as Staf-GATE. We trained Staf-GATE with data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) and show state-of-the-art performance in predicting FC and joint generation of SC and FC. In addition, as a crucial component of the proposed approach, we provide a masking-based algorithm to extract interpretable inferences about SC-FC coupling. Our interpretation methods identified important SC subnetworks for FC coupling and relating SC and FC with sex.

Combining sum factorization, weighted quadrature, and row-based assembly enables efficient higher-order computations for tensor product splines. We aim to transfer these concepts to immersed boundary methods, which perform simulations on a regular background mesh cut by a boundary representation that defines the domain of interest. Therefore, we present a novel concept to divide the support of cut basis functions to obtain regular parts suited for sum factorization. These regions require special discontinuous weighted quadrature rules, while Gauss-like quadrature rules integrate the remaining support. Two linear elasticity benchmark problems confirm the derived estimate for the computational costs of the different integration routines and their combination. Although the presence of cut elements reduces the speed-up, its contribution to the overall computation time declines with h-refinement.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.