In recent years, the literature on Bayesian high-dimensional variable selection has rapidly grown. It is increasingly important to understand whether these Bayesian methods can consistently estimate the model parameters. To this end, shrinkage priors are useful for identifying relevant signals in high-dimensional data. For multivariate linear regression models with Gaussian response variables, Bai and Ghosh (2018) proposed a multivariate Bayesian model with shrinkage priors (MBSP) for estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional settings. However, the proofs of posterior consistency for the MBSP method (Theorems 3 and 4 of Bai and Ghosh (2018) were incorrect. In this paper, we provide a corrected proof of Theorems 3 and 4 of Bai and Ghosh (2018). We leverage these new proofs to extend the MBSP model to multivariate generalized linear models (GLMs). Under our proposed model (MBSP-GLM), multiple responses belonging to the exponential family are simultaneously modeled and mixed-type responses are allowed. We show that the MBSP-GLM model achieves strong posterior consistency when $p$ grows at a subexponential rate with $n$. Furthermore, we quantify the posterior contraction rate at which the posterior shrinks around the true regression coefficients and allow the dimension of the responses $q$ to grow as $n$ grows. Thus, we strengthen the previous results on posterior consistency, which did not provide rate results. This greatly expands the scope of the MBSP model to include response variables of many data types, including binary and count data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first posterior contraction result for multivariate Bayesian GLMs.
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Super-Resolution is the technique to improve the quality of a low-resolution photo by boosting its plausible resolution. The computer vision community has extensively explored the area of Super-Resolution. However, previous Super-Resolution methods require vast amounts of data for training which becomes problematic in domains where very few low-resolution, high-resolution pairs might be available. One such area is statistical downscaling, where super-resolution is increasingly being used to obtain high-resolution climate information from low-resolution data. Acquiring high-resolution climate data is extremely expensive and challenging. To reduce the cost of generating high-resolution climate information, Super-Resolution algorithms should be able to train with a limited number of low-resolution, high-resolution pairs. This paper tries to solve the aforementioned problem by introducing a semi-supervised way to perform super-resolution that can generate sharp, high-resolution images with as few as 500 paired examples. The proposed semi-supervised technique can be used as a plug-and-play module with any supervised GAN-based Super-Resolution method to enhance its performance. We quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the performance of the proposed model and compare it with completely supervised methods as well as other unsupervised techniques. Comprehensive evaluations show the superiority of our method over other methods on different metrics. We also offer the applicability of our approach in statistical downscaling to obtain high-resolution climate images.
We propose the AdaPtive Noise Augmentation (PANDA) procedure to regularize the estimation and inference of generalized linear models (GLMs). PANDA iteratively optimizes the objective function given noise augmented data until convergence to obtain the regularized model estimates. The augmented noises are designed to achieve various regularization effects, including $l_0$, bridge (lasso and ridge included), elastic net, adaptive lasso, and SCAD, as well as group lasso and fused ridge. We examine the tail bound of the noise-augmented loss function and establish the almost sure convergence of the noise-augmented loss function and its minimizer to the expected penalized loss function and its minimizer, respectively. We derive the asymptotic distributions for the regularized parameters, based on which, inferences can be obtained simultaneously with variable selection. PANDA exhibits ensemble learning behaviors that help further decrease the generalization error. Computationally, PANDA is easy to code, leveraging existing software for implementing GLMs, without resorting to complicated optimization techniques. We demonstrate the superior or similar performance of PANDA against the existing approaches of the same type of regularizers in simulated and real-life data. We show that the inferences through PANDA achieve nominal or near-nominal coverage and are far more efficient compared to a popular existing post-selection procedure.
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.
This paper considers the problem of inference in cluster randomized experiments when cluster sizes are non-ignorable. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the level of the cluster; by non-ignorable cluster sizes we mean that "large" clusters and "small" clusters may be heterogeneous, and, in particular, the effects of the treatment may vary across clusters of differing sizes. In order to permit this sort of flexibility, we consider a sampling framework in which cluster sizes themselves are random. In this way, our analysis departs from earlier analyses of cluster randomized experiments in which cluster sizes are treated as non-random. We distinguish between two different parameters of interest: the equally-weighted cluster-level average treatment effect, and the size-weighted cluster-level average treatment effect. For each parameter, we provide methods for inference in an asymptotic framework where the number of clusters tends to infinity and treatment is assigned using simple random sampling. We additionally permit the experimenter to sample only a subset of the units within each cluster rather than the entire cluster and demonstrate the implications of such sampling for some commonly used estimators. A small simulation study shows the practical relevance of our theoretical results.
Computing a maximum independent set (MaxIS) is a fundamental NP-hard problem in graph theory, which has important applications in a wide spectrum of fields. Since graphs in many applications are changing frequently over time, the problem of maintaining a MaxIS over dynamic graphs has attracted increasing attention over the past few years. Due to the intractability of maintaining an exact MaxIS, this paper aims to develop efficient algorithms that can maintain an approximate MaxIS with an accuracy guarantee theoretically. In particular, we propose a framework that maintains a $(\frac{\Delta}{2} + 1)$-approximate MaxIS over dynamic graphs and prove that it achieves a constant approximation ratio in many real-world networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first non-trivial approximability result for the dynamic MaxIS problem. Following the framework, we implement an efficient linear-time dynamic algorithm and a more effective dynamic algorithm with near-linear expected time complexity. Our thorough experiments over real and synthetic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms, especially when the graph is highly dynamic.
An important challenge in statistical analysis lies in controlling the estimation bias when handling the ever-increasing data size and model complexity. For example, approximate methods are increasingly used to address the analytical and/or computational challenges when implementing standard estimators, but they often lead to inconsistent estimators. So consistent estimators can be difficult to obtain, especially for complex models and/or in settings where the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. We propose a general simulation-based estimation framework that allows to construct consistent and bias corrected estimators for parameters of increasing dimensions. The key advantage of the proposed framework is that it only requires to compute a simple inconsistent estimator multiple times. The resulting Just Identified iNdirect Inference estimator (JINI) enjoys nice properties, including consistency, asymptotic normality, and finite sample bias correction better than alternative methods. We further provide a simple algorithm to construct the JINI in a computationally efficient manner. Therefore, the JINI is especially useful in settings where standard methods may be challenging to apply, for example, in the presence of misclassification and rounding. We consider comprehensive simulation studies and analyze an alcohol consumption data example to illustrate the excellent performance and usefulness of the method.
In this work, we study the transfer learning problem under high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), which aim to improve the fit on target data by borrowing information from useful source data. Given which sources to transfer, we propose a transfer learning algorithm on GLM, and derive its $\ell_1/\ell_2$-estimation error bounds as well as a bound for a prediction error measure. The theoretical analysis shows that when the target and source are sufficiently close to each other, these bounds could be improved over those of the classical penalized estimator using only target data under mild conditions. When we don't know which sources to transfer, an algorithm-free transferable source detection approach is introduced to detect informative sources. The detection consistency is proved under the high-dimensional GLM transfer learning setting. We also propose an algorithm to construct confidence intervals of each coefficient component, and the corresponding theories are provided. Extensive simulations and a real-data experiment verify the effectiveness of our algorithms. We implement the proposed GLM transfer learning algorithms in a new R package glmtrans, which is available on CRAN.
Let $X^{(n)}$ be an observation sampled from a distribution $P_{\theta}^{(n)}$ with an unknown parameter $\theta,$ $\theta$ being a vector in a Banach space $E$ (most often, a high-dimensional space of dimension $d$). We study the problem of estimation of $f(\theta)$ for a functional $f:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ of some smoothness $s>0$ based on an observation $X^{(n)}\sim P_{\theta}^{(n)}.$ Assuming that there exists an estimator $\hat \theta_n=\hat \theta_n(X^{(n)})$ of parameter $\theta$ such that $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta)$ is sufficiently close in distribution to a mean zero Gaussian random vector in $E,$ we construct a functional $g:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ such that $g(\hat \theta_n)$ is an asymptotically normal estimator of $f(\theta)$ with $\sqrt{n}$ rate provided that $s>\frac{1}{1-\alpha}$ and $d\leq n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1).$ We also derive general upper bounds on Orlicz norm error rates for estimator $g(\hat \theta)$ depending on smoothness $s,$ dimension $d,$ sample size $n$ and the accuracy of normal approximation of $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta).$ In particular, this approach yields asymptotically efficient estimators in some high-dimensional exponential models.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
Universal coding of integers~(UCI) is a class of variable-length code, such that the ratio of the expected codeword length to $\max\{1,H(P)\}$ is within a constant factor, where $H(P)$ is the Shannon entropy of the decreasing probability distribution $P$. However, if we consider the ratio of the expected codeword length to $H(P)$, the ratio tends to infinity by using UCI, when $H(P)$ tends to zero. To solve this issue, this paper introduces a class of codes, termed generalized universal coding of integers~(GUCI), such that the ratio of the expected codeword length to $H(P)$ is within a constant factor $K$. First, the definition of GUCI is proposed and the coding structure of GUCI is introduced. Next, we propose a class of GUCI $\mathcal{C}$ to achieve the expansion factor $K_{\mathcal{C}}=2$ and show that the optimal GUCI is in the range $1\leq K_{\mathcal{C}}^{*}\leq 2$. Then, by comparing UCI and GUCI, we show that when the entropy is very large or $P(0)$ is not large, there are also cases where the average codeword length of GUCI is shorter. Finally, the asymptotically optimal GUCI is presented.
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