Proactive cyber-risk assessment is gaining momentum due to the wide range of sectors that can benefit from the prevention of cyber-incidents. The increasing connectivity of digital and (cyber-)physical systems requires more attention to cybersecurity to enhance the integrity, confidentiality, and availability of data. We introduce a statistical framework for the prioritisation of cyber-vulnerabilities, using robust and interpretable regression models to support decision-making. Specifically, we take advantage of mid-quantile regression to deal with ordinal risk assessments, and we compare it to current alternatives for cyber-risk ranking and graded responses, identifying a novel accuracy measure suited for rankings with partial knowledge of existing vulnerabilities. Our model is tested on both simulated and real data from selected databases that support the exploitation of cyber-vulnerabilities in real contexts. The variety of information arising from such datasets allows us to compare multiple models based on their predictive performance, showing how accessible information can influence perception and, hence, decision-making in operational scenarios. Applications to threat intelligence are discussed too.
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Presentation attack (spoofing) detection (PAD) typically operates alongside biometric verification to improve reliablity in the face of spoofing attacks. Even though the two sub-systems operate in tandem to solve the single task of reliable biometric verification, they address different detection tasks and are hence typically evaluated separately. Evidence shows that this approach is suboptimal. We introduce a new metric for the joint evaluation of PAD solutions operating in situ with biometric verification. In contrast to the tandem detection cost function proposed recently, the new tandem equal error rate (t-EER) is parameter free. The combination of two classifiers nonetheless leads to a \emph{set} of operating points at which false alarm and miss rates are equal and also dependent upon the prevalence of attacks. We therefore introduce the \emph{concurrent} t-EER, a unique operating point which is invariable to the prevalence of attacks. Using both modality (and even application) agnostic simulated scores, as well as real scores for a voice biometrics application, we demonstrate application of the t-EER to a wide range of biometric system evaluations under attack. The proposed approach is a strong candidate metric for the tandem evaluation of PAD systems and biometric comparators.
Consider an online convex optimization problem where the loss functions are self-concordant barriers, smooth relative to a convex function $h$, and possibly non-Lipschitz. We analyze the regret of online mirror descent with $h$. Then, based on the result, we prove the following in a unified manner. Denote by $T$ the time horizon and $d$ the parameter dimension. 1. For online portfolio selection, the regret of $\widetilde{\text{EG}}$, a variant of exponentiated gradient due to Helmbold et al., is $\tilde{O} ( T^{2/3} d^{1/3} )$ when $T > 4 d / \log d$. This improves on the original $\tilde{O} ( T^{3/4} d^{1/2} )$ regret bound for $\widetilde{\text{EG}}$. 2. For online portfolio selection, the regret of online mirror descent with the logarithmic barrier is $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T d})$. The regret bound is the same as that of Soft-Bayes due to Orseau et al. up to logarithmic terms. 3. For online learning quantum states with the logarithmic loss, the regret of online mirror descent with the log-determinant function is also $\tilde{O} ( \sqrt{T d} )$. Its per-iteration time is shorter than all existing algorithms we know.
Computer simulations have become essential for analyzing complex systems, but high-fidelity simulations often come with significant computational costs. To tackle this challenge, multi-fidelity computer experiments have emerged as a promising approach that leverages both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations, enhancing both the accuracy and efficiency of the analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new and flexible statistical model, the Recursive Non-Additive (RNA) emulator, that integrates the data from multi-fidelity computer experiments. Unlike conventional multi-fidelity emulation approaches that rely on an additive auto-regressive structure, the proposed RNA emulator recursively captures the relationships between multi-fidelity data using Gaussian process priors without making the additive assumption, allowing the model to accommodate more complex data patterns. Importantly, we derive the posterior predictive mean and variance of the emulator, which can be efficiently computed in a closed-form manner, leading to significant improvements in computational efficiency. Additionally, based on this emulator, we introduce three active learning strategies that optimize the balance between accuracy and simulation costs to guide the selection of the fidelity level and input locations for the next simulation run. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in a suite of synthetic examples and a real-world problem. An R package for the proposed methodology is provided in an open repository.
Many protocols in distributed computing rely on a source of randomness, usually called a random beacon, both for their applicability and security. This is especially true for proof-of-stake blockchain protocols in which the next miner or set of miners have to be chosen randomly and each party's likelihood to be selected is in proportion to their stake in the cryptocurrency. Current random beacons used in proof-of-stake protocols, such as Ouroboros and Algorand, have two fundamental limitations: Either (i)~they rely on pseudorandomness, e.g.~assuming that the output of a hash function is uniform, which is a widely-used but unproven assumption, or (ii)~they generate their randomness using a distributed protocol in which several participants are required to submit random numbers which are then used in the generation of a final random result. However, in this case, there is no guarantee that the numbers provided by the parties are uniformly random and there is no incentive for the parties to honestly generate uniform randomness. Most random beacons have both limitations. In this thesis, we provide a protocol for distributed generation of randomness. Our protocol does not rely on pseudorandomness at all. Similar to some of the previous approaches, it uses random inputs by different participants to generate a final random result. However, the crucial difference is that we provide a game-theoretic guarantee showing that it is in everyone's best interest to submit uniform random numbers. Hence, our approach is the first to incentivize honest behavior instead of just assuming it. Moreover, the approach is trustless and generates unbiased random numbers. It is also tamper-proof and no party can change the output or affect its distribution. Finally, it is designed with modularity in mind and can be easily plugged into existing distributed protocols such as proof-of-stake blockchains.
We consider speech enhancement for signals picked up in one noisy environment that must be rendered to a listener in another noisy environment. For both far-end noise reduction and near-end listening enhancement, it has been shown that excessive focus on noise suppression or intelligibility maximization may lead to excessive speech distortions and quality degradations in favorable noise conditions, where intelligibility is already at ceiling level. Recently [1,2] propose to remedy this with a minimum processing framework that either reduces noise or enhances listening a minimum amount given that a certain intelligibility criterion is still satisfied. Additionally, it has been shown that joint consideration of both environments improves speech enhancement performance. In this paper, we formulate a joint far- and near-end minimum processing framework, that improves intelligibility while limiting speech distortions in favorable noise conditions. We provide closed-form solutions to specific boundary scenarios and investigate performance for the general case using numerical optimization. We also show that concatenating existing minimum processing far- and near-end enhancement methods preserves the effects of the initial methods. Results show that the joint optimization can further improve performance compared to the concatenated approach.
A problem that plagues robotic grasping is the misalignment of the object and gripper due to difficulties in precise localization, actuation, etc. Under-actuated robotic hands with compliant mechanisms are used to adapt and compensate for these inaccuracies. However, these mechanisms come at the cost of controllability and coordination. For instance, adaptive functions that let the fingers of a two-fingered gripper adapt independently may affect the coordination necessary for grasping small objects. In this work, we develop a two-fingered robotic hand capable of grasping objects that are offset from the gripper's center, while still having the requisite coordination for grasping small objects via a novel gear-type synchronization mechanism with a magnet. This gear synchronization mechanism allows the adaptive finger's tips to be aligned enabling it to grasp objects as small as toothpicks and washers. The magnetic component allows this coordination to automatically turn off when needed, allowing for the grasping of objects that are offset/misaligned from the gripper. This equips the hand with the capability of grasping light, fragile objects (strawberries, creampuffs, etc) to heavy frying pan lids, all while maintaining their position and posture which is vital in numerous applications that require precise positioning or careful manipulation.
Opioids are an effective analgesic for acute and chronic pain, but also carry a considerable risk of addiction leading to millions of opioid use disorder (OUD) cases and tens of thousands of premature deaths in the United States yearly. Estimating OUD risk prior to prescription could improve the efficacy of treatment regimens, monitoring programs, and intervention strategies, but risk estimation is typically based on self-reported data or questionnaires. We develop an experimental design and computational methods that combines genetic variants associated with OUD with behavioral features extracted from GPS and Wi-Fi spatiotemporal coordinates to assess OUD risk. Since both OUD mobility and genetic data do not exist for the same cohort, we develop algorithms to (1) generate mobility features from empirical distributions and (2) synthesize mobility and genetic samples assuming a level of comorbidity and relative risks. We show that integrating genetic and mobility modalities improves risk modelling using classification accuracy, area under the precision-recall and receiver operator characteristic curves, and $F_1$ score. Interpreting the fitted models suggests that mobility features have more influence on OUD risk, although the genetic contribution was significant, particularly in linear models. While there exists concerns with respect to privacy, security, bias, and generalizability that must be evaluated in clinical trials before being implemented in practice, our framework provides preliminary evidence that behavioral and genetic features may improve OUD risk estimation to assist with personalized clinical decision-making.
Contrastive loss has been increasingly used in learning representations from multiple modalities. In the limit, the nature of the contrastive loss encourages modalities to exactly match each other in the latent space. Yet it remains an open question how the modality alignment affects the downstream task performance. In this paper, based on an information-theoretic argument, we first prove that exact modality alignment is sub-optimal in general for downstream prediction tasks. Hence we advocate that the key of better performance lies in meaningful latent modality structures instead of perfect modality alignment. To this end, we propose three general approaches to construct latent modality structures. Specifically, we design 1) a deep feature separation loss for intra-modality regularization; 2) a Brownian-bridge loss for inter-modality regularization; and 3) a geometric consistency loss for both intra- and inter-modality regularization. Extensive experiments are conducted on two popular multi-modal representation learning frameworks: the CLIP-based two-tower model and the ALBEF-based fusion model. We test our model on a variety of tasks including zero/few-shot image classification, image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment. Our method achieves consistent improvements over existing methods, demonstrating the effectiveness and generalizability of our proposed approach on latent modality structure regularization.
Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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