We propose a one-to-many matching estimator of the average treatment effect based on propensity scores estimated by isotonic regression. The method relies on the monotonicity assumption on the propensity score function, which can be justified in many applications in economics. We show that the nature of the isotonic estimator can help us to fix many problems of existing matching methods, including efficiency, choice of the number of matches, choice of tuning parameters, robustness to propensity score misspecification, and bootstrap validity. As a by-product, a uniformly consistent isotonic estimator is developed for our proposed matching method.
Finding the optimal design of a hydrodynamic or aerodynamic surface is often impossible due to the expense of evaluating the cost functions (say, with computational fluid dynamics) needed to determine the performances of the flows that the surface controls. In addition, inherent limitations of the design space itself due to imposed geometric constraints, conventional parameterization methods, and user bias can restrict {\it all} of the designs within a chosen design space regardless of whether traditional optimization methods or newer, data-driven design algorithms with machine learning are used to search the design space. We present a 2-pronged attack to address these difficulties: we propose (1) a methodology to create the design space using morphing that we call {\it Design-by-Morphing} (DbM); and (2) an optimization algorithm to search that space that uses a novel Bayesian Optimization (BO) strategy that we call {\it Mixed variable, Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization} (MixMOBO). We apply this shape optimization strategy to maximize the power output of a hydrokinetic turbine. Applying these two strategies in tandem, we demonstrate that we can create a novel, geometrically-unconstrained, design space of a draft tube and hub shape and then optimize them simultaneously with a {\it minimum} number of cost function calls. Our framework is versatile and can be applied to the shape optimization of a variety of fluid problems.
Positive and unlabelled learning is an important problem which arises naturally in many applications. The significant limitation of almost all existing methods lies in assuming that the propensity score function is constant (SCAR assumption), which is unrealistic in many practical situations. Avoiding this assumption, we consider parametric approach to the problem of joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions. We show that under mild assumptions when both functions have the same parametric form (e.g. logistic with different parameters) the corresponding parameters are identifiable. Motivated by this, we propose two approaches to their estimation: joint maximum likelihood method and the second approach based on alternating maximization of two Fisher consistent expressions. Our experimental results show that the proposed methods are comparable or better than the existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.
The number of Knowledge Graphs (KGs) generated with automatic and manual approaches is constantly growing. For an integrated view and usage, an alignment between these KGs is necessary on the schema as well as instance level. While there are approaches that try to tackle this multi source knowledge graph matching problem, large gold standards are missing to evaluate their effectiveness and scalability. We close this gap by presenting Gollum -- a gold standard for large-scale multi source knowledge graph matching with over 275,000 correspondences between 4,149 different KGs. They originate from knowledge graphs derived by applying the DBpedia extraction framework to a large wiki farm. Three variations of the gold standard are made available: (1) a version with all correspondences for evaluating unsupervised matching approaches, and two versions for evaluating supervised matching: (2) one where each KG is contained both in the train and test set, and (3) one where each KG is exclusively contained in the train or the test set.
We study differentially private (DP) stochastic optimization (SO) with data containing outliers and loss functions that are not Lipschitz continuous. To date, the vast majority of work on DP SO assumes that the loss is Lipschitz (i.e. stochastic gradients are uniformly bounded), and their error bounds scale with the Lipschitz parameter of the loss. While this assumption is convenient, it is often unrealistic: in many practical problems where privacy is required, data may contain outliers or be unbounded, causing some stochastic gradients to have large norm. In such cases, the Lipschitz parameter may be prohibitively large, leading to vacuous excess risk bounds. Thus, building on a recent line of work [WXDX20, KLZ22], we make the weaker assumption that stochastic gradients have bounded $k$-th moments for some $k \geq 2$. Compared with works on DP Lipschitz SO, our excess risk scales with the $k$-th moment bound instead of the Lipschitz parameter of the loss, allowing for significantly faster rates in the presence of outliers. For convex and strongly convex loss functions, we provide the first asymptotically optimal excess risk bounds (up to a logarithmic factor). Moreover, in contrast to the prior works [WXDX20, KLZ22], our bounds do not require the loss function to be differentiable/smooth. We also devise an accelerated algorithm that runs in linear time and yields improved (compared to prior works) and nearly optimal excess risk for smooth losses. Additionally, our work is the first to address non-convex non-Lipschitz loss functions satisfying the Proximal-PL inequality; this covers some classes of neural nets, among other practical models. Our Proximal-PL algorithm has nearly optimal excess risk that almost matches the strongly convex lower bound. Lastly, we provide shuffle DP variations of our algorithms, which do not require a trusted curator (e.g. for distributed learning).
Score-based divergences have been widely used in machine learning and statistics applications. Despite their empirical success, a blindness problem has been observed when using these for multi-modal distributions. In this work, we discuss the blindness problem and propose a new family of divergences that can mitigate the blindness problem. We illustrate our proposed divergence in the context of density estimation and report improved performance compared to traditional approaches.
To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of confounders and instrumental variables (IVs). Because such approaches are largely characterized by untestable assumptions, analysts must operate under an indefinite paradigm that these methods will work imperfectly. In this tutorial, we formalize a set of general principles and heuristics for estimating causal effects in the two approaches when the assumptions are potentially violated. This crucially requires reframing the process of observational studies as hypothesizing potential scenarios where the estimates from one approach are less inconsistent than the other. While most of our discussion of methodology centers around the linear setting, we touch upon complexities in non-linear settings and flexible procedures such as target minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML). To demonstrate the application of our principles, we investigate the use of donepezil off-label for mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We compare and contrast results from confounder and IV methods, traditional and flexible, within our analysis and to a similar observational study and clinical trial.
The absolute value equations (AVE) problem is an algebraic problem of solving Ax+|x|=b. So far, most of the research focused on methods for solving AVEs, but we address the problem itself by analysing properties of AVE and the corresponding solution set. In particular, we investigate topological properties of the solution set, such as convexity, boundedness, connectedness, or whether it consists of finitely many solutions. Further, we address problems related to nonnegativity of solutions such as solvability or unique solvability. AVE can be formulated by means of different optimization problems, and in this regard we are interested in how the solutions of AVE are related with optima, Karush-Kuhn-Tucker points and feasible solutions of these optimization problems. We characterize the matrix classes associated with the above mentioned properties and inspect the computational complexity of the recognition problem; some of the classes are polynomially recognizable, but some others are proved to be NP-hard. For the intractable cases, we propose various sufficient conditions. We also post new challenging problems that raised during the investigation of the problem.
In the domain generalization literature, a common objective is to learn representations independent of the domain after conditioning on the class label. We show that this objective is not sufficient: there exist counter-examples where a model fails to generalize to unseen domains even after satisfying class-conditional domain invariance. We formalize this observation through a structural causal model and show the importance of modeling within-class variations for generalization. Specifically, classes contain objects that characterize specific causal features, and domains can be interpreted as interventions on these objects that change non-causal features. We highlight an alternative condition: inputs across domains should have the same representation if they are derived from the same object. Based on this objective, we propose matching-based algorithms when base objects are observed (e.g., through data augmentation) and approximate the objective when objects are not observed (MatchDG). Our simple matching-based algorithms are competitive to prior work on out-of-domain accuracy for rotated MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, PACS, and Chest-Xray datasets. Our method MatchDG also recovers ground-truth object matches: on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, top-10 matches from MatchDG have over 50% overlap with ground-truth matches.
Meta-learning extracts the common knowledge acquired from learning different tasks and uses it for unseen tasks. It demonstrates a clear advantage on tasks that have insufficient training data, e.g., few-shot learning. In most meta-learning methods, tasks are implicitly related via the shared model or optimizer. In this paper, we show that a meta-learner that explicitly relates tasks on a graph describing the relations of their output dimensions (e.g., classes) can significantly improve the performance of few-shot learning. This type of graph is usually free or cheap to obtain but has rarely been explored in previous works. We study the prototype based few-shot classification, in which a prototype is generated for each class, such that the nearest neighbor search between the prototypes produces an accurate classification. We introduce "Gated Propagation Network (GPN)", which learns to propagate messages between prototypes of different classes on the graph, so that learning the prototype of each class benefits from the data of other related classes. In GPN, an attention mechanism is used for the aggregation of messages from neighboring classes, and a gate is deployed to choose between the aggregated messages and the message from the class itself. GPN is trained on a sequence of tasks from many-shot to few-shot generated by subgraph sampling. During training, it is able to reuse and update previously achieved prototypes from the memory in a life-long learning cycle. In experiments, we change the training-test discrepancy and test task generation settings for thorough evaluations. GPN outperforms recent meta-learning methods on two benchmark datasets in all studied cases.
Learning from a few examples remains a key challenge in machine learning. Despite recent advances in important domains such as vision and language, the standard supervised deep learning paradigm does not offer a satisfactory solution for learning new concepts rapidly from little data. In this work, we employ ideas from metric learning based on deep neural features and from recent advances that augment neural networks with external memories. Our framework learns a network that maps a small labelled support set and an unlabelled example to its label, obviating the need for fine-tuning to adapt to new class types. We then define one-shot learning problems on vision (using Omniglot, ImageNet) and language tasks. Our algorithm improves one-shot accuracy on ImageNet from 87.6% to 93.2% and from 88.0% to 93.8% on Omniglot compared to competing approaches. We also demonstrate the usefulness of the same model on language modeling by introducing a one-shot task on the Penn Treebank.