Multivariate distributional forecasts have become widespread in recent years. To assess the quality of such forecasts, suitable evaluation methods are needed. In the univariate case, calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used. However, multivariate extensions of PIT-based calibration tests face various challenges. We therefore introduce a general framework for calibration testing in the multivariate case and propose two new tests that arise from it. Both approaches use proper scoring rules and are simple to implement even in large dimensions. The first employs the PIT of the score. The second is based on comparing the expected performance of the forecast distribution (i.e., the expected score) to its actual performance based on realized observations (i.e., the realized score). The tests have good size and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the new tests to forecast distributions for macroeconomic and financial time series data.
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Nowadays, the deployment of deep learning models on edge devices for addressing real-world classification problems is becoming more prevalent. Moreover, there is a growing popularity in the approach of early classification, a technique that involves classifying the input data after observing only an early portion of it, aiming to achieve reduced communication and computation requirements, which are crucial parameters in edge intelligence environments. While early classification in the field of time series analysis has been broadly researched, existing solutions for multivariate time series problems primarily focus on early classification along the temporal dimension, treating the multiple input channels in a collective manner. In this study, we propose a more flexible early classification pipeline that offers a more granular consideration of input channels and extends the early classification paradigm to the channel dimension. To implement this method, we utilize reinforcement learning techniques and introduce constraints to ensure the feasibility and practicality of our objective. To validate its effectiveness, we conduct experiments using synthetic data and we also evaluate its performance on real datasets. The comprehensive results from our experiments demonstrate that, for multiple datasets, our method can enhance the early classification paradigm by achieving improved accuracy for equal input utilization.
Data-centric AI approach aims to enhance the model performance without modifying the model and has been shown to impact model performance positively. While recent attention has been given to data-centric AI based on synthetic data, due to its potential for performance improvement, data-centric AI has long been exclusively validated using real-world data and publicly available benchmark datasets. In respect of this, data-centric AI still highly depends on real-world data, and the verification of models using synthetic data has not yet been thoroughly carried out. Given the challenges above, we ask the question: Does data quality control (noise injection and balanced data), a data-centric AI methodology acclaimed to have a positive impact, exhibit the same positive impact in models trained solely with synthetic data? To address this question, we conducted comparative analyses between models trained on synthetic and real-world data based on grammatical error correction (GEC) task. Our experimental results reveal that the data quality control method has a positive impact on models trained with real-world data, as previously reported in existing studies, while a negative impact is observed in models trained solely on synthetic data.
The security of computer systems typically relies on a hardware root of trust. As vulnerabilities in hardware can have severe implications on a system, there is a need for techniques to support security verification activities. Assertion-based verification is a popular verification technique that involves capturing design intent in a set of assertions that can be used in formal verification or testing-based checking. However, writing security-centric assertions is a challenging task. In this work, we investigate the use of emerging large language models (LLMs) for code generation in hardware assertion generation for security, where primarily natural language prompts, such as those one would see as code comments in assertion files, are used to produce SystemVerilog assertions. We focus our attention on a popular LLM and characterize its ability to write assertions out of the box, given varying levels of detail in the prompt. We design an evaluation framework that generates a variety of prompts, and we create a benchmark suite comprising real-world hardware designs and corresponding golden reference assertions that we want to generate with the LLM.
Deep Learning (DL) models tend to perform poorly when the data comes from a distribution different from the training one. In critical applications such as medical imaging, out-of-distribution (OOD) detection helps to identify such data samples, increasing the model's reliability. Recent works have developed DL-based OOD detection that achieves promising results on 2D medical images. However, scaling most of these approaches on 3D images is computationally intractable. Furthermore, the current 3D solutions struggle to achieve acceptable results in detecting even synthetic OOD samples. Such limited performance might indicate that DL often inefficiently embeds large volumetric images. We argue that using the intensity histogram of the original CT or MRI scan as embedding is descriptive enough to run OOD detection. Therefore, we propose a histogram-based method that requires no DL and achieves almost perfect results in this domain. Our proposal is supported two-fold. We evaluate the performance on the publicly available datasets, where our method scores 1.0 AUROC in most setups. And we score second in the Medical Out-of-Distribution challenge without fine-tuning and exploiting task-specific knowledge. Carefully discussing the limitations, we conclude that our method solves the sample-level OOD detection on 3D medical images in the current setting.
We consider a new framework where a continuous, though bounded, random variable has unobserved bounds that vary over time. In the context of univariate time series, we look at the bounds as parameters of the distribution of the bounded random variable. We introduce an extended log-likelihood estimation and design algorithms to track the bound through online maximum likelihood estimation. Since the resulting optimization problem is not convex, we make use of recent theoretical results on Normalized Gradient Descent (NGD) for quasiconvex optimization, to eventually derive an Online Normalized Gradient Descent algorithm. We illustrate and discuss the workings of our approach based on both simulation studies and a real-world wind power forecasting problem.
Intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in balancing the intermittent generation of renewable energy resources, which creates a need for accurate probabilistic price forecasts. However, research to date has focused on univariate approaches, while in many European intraday electricity markets all delivery periods are traded in parallel. Thus, the dependency structure between different traded products and the corresponding cross-product effects cannot be ignored. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by using copulas to model the high-dimensional intraday price return vector. We model the marginal distribution as a zero-inflated Johnson's $S_U$ distribution with location, scale and shape parameters that depend on market and fundamental data. The dependence structure is modelled using latent beta regression to account for the particular market structure of the intraday electricity market, such as overlapping but independent trading sessions for different delivery days. We allow the dependence parameter to be time-varying. We validate our approach in a simulation study for the German intraday electricity market and find that modelling the dependence structure improves the forecasting performance. Additionally, we shed light on the impact of the single intraday coupling (SIDC) on the trading activity and price distribution and interpret our results in light of the market efficiency hypothesis. The approach is directly applicable to other European electricity markets.
This study aims to compare multiple deep learning-based forecasters for the task of predicting volatility using multivariate data. The paper evaluates a range of models, starting from simpler and shallower ones and progressing to deeper and more complex architectures. Additionally, the performance of these models is compared against naive predictions and variations of classical GARCH models. The prediction of volatility for five assets, namely S&P500, NASDAQ100, gold, silver, and oil, is specifically addressed using GARCH models, Multi-Layer Perceptrons, Recurrent Neural Networks, Temporal Convolutional Networks, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer. In the majority of cases, the Temporal Fusion Transformer, followed by variants of the Temporal Convolutional Network, outperformed classical approaches and shallow networks. These experiments were repeated, and the differences observed between the competing models were found to be statistically significant, thus providing strong encouragement for their practical application.
Spatio-temporal forecasting is challenging attributing to the high nonlinearity in temporal dynamics as well as complex location-characterized patterns in spatial domains, especially in fields like weather forecasting. Graph convolutions are usually used for modeling the spatial dependency in meteorology to handle the irregular distribution of sensors' spatial location. In this work, a novel graph-based convolution for imitating the meteorological flows is proposed to capture the local spatial patterns. Based on the assumption of smoothness of location-characterized patterns, we propose conditional local convolution whose shared kernel on nodes' local space is approximated by feedforward networks, with local representations of coordinate obtained by horizon maps into cylindrical-tangent space as its input. The established united standard of local coordinate system preserves the orientation on geography. We further propose the distance and orientation scaling terms to reduce the impacts of irregular spatial distribution. The convolution is embedded in a Recurrent Neural Network architecture to model the temporal dynamics, leading to the Conditional Local Convolution Recurrent Network (CLCRN). Our model is evaluated on real-world weather benchmark datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance with obvious improvements. We conduct further analysis on local pattern visualization, model's framework choice, advantages of horizon maps and etc.
Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
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