Intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in balancing the intermittent generation of renewable energy resources, which creates a need for accurate probabilistic price forecasts. However, research to date has focused on univariate approaches, while in many European intraday electricity markets all delivery periods are traded in parallel. Thus, the dependency structure between different traded products and the corresponding cross-product effects cannot be ignored. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by using copulas to model the high-dimensional intraday price return vector. We model the marginal distribution as a zero-inflated Johnson's $S_U$ distribution with location, scale and shape parameters that depend on market and fundamental data. The dependence structure is modelled using latent beta regression to account for the particular market structure of the intraday electricity market, such as overlapping but independent trading sessions for different delivery days. We allow the dependence parameter to be time-varying. We validate our approach in a simulation study for the German intraday electricity market and find that modelling the dependence structure improves the forecasting performance. Additionally, we shed light on the impact of the single intraday coupling (SIDC) on the trading activity and price distribution and interpret our results in light of the market efficiency hypothesis. The approach is directly applicable to other European electricity markets.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) are a powerful class of generative models known for their ability to generate high-fidelity image samples. A major challenge in the implementation of DPMs is the slow sampling process. In this work, we bring a high-efficiency sampler for DPMs. Specifically, we propose a score-based exact solution paradigm for the diffusion ODEs corresponding to the sampling process of DPMs, which introduces a new perspective on developing numerical algorithms for solving diffusion ODEs. To achieve an efficient sampler, we propose a recursive derivative estimation (RDE) method to reduce the estimation error. With our proposed solution paradigm and RDE method, we propose the score-integrand solver with the convergence order guarantee as efficient solver (SciRE-Solver) for solving diffusion ODEs. The SciRE-Solver attains state-of-the-art (SOTA) sampling performance with a limited number of score function evaluations (NFE) on both discrete-time and continuous-time DPMs in comparison to existing training-free sampling algorithms. Such as, we achieve $3.48$ FID with $12$ NFE and $2.42$ FID with $20$ NFE for continuous-time DPMs on CIFAR10, respectively. Different from other samplers, SciRE-Solver has the promising potential to surpass the FIDs achieved in the original papers of some pre-trained models with just fewer NFEs. For example, we reach SOTA value of $2.40$ FID with $100$ NFE for continuous-time DPM and of $3.15$ FID with $84$ NFE for discrete-time DPM on CIFAR-10, as well as of $2.17$ ($2.02$) FID with $18$ ($50$) NFE for discrete-time DPM on CelebA 64$\times$64.
Generative text-to-image models have gained great popularity among the public for their powerful capability to generate high-quality images based on natural language prompts. However, developing effective prompts for desired images can be challenging due to the complexity and ambiguity of natural language. This research proposes PromptMagician, a visual analysis system that helps users explore the image results and refine the input prompts. The backbone of our system is a prompt recommendation model that takes user prompts as input, retrieves similar prompt-image pairs from DiffusionDB, and identifies special (important and relevant) prompt keywords. To facilitate interactive prompt refinement, PromptMagician introduces a multi-level visualization for the cross-modal embedding of the retrieved images and recommended keywords, and supports users in specifying multiple criteria for personalized exploration. Two usage scenarios, a user study, and expert interviews demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of our system, suggesting it facilitates prompt engineering and improves the creativity support of the generative text-to-image model.
Large Language Models (LLMs) hold immense potential to generate synthetic data of high quality and utility, which has numerous applications from downstream model training to practical data utilisation. However, contemporary models, despite their impressive capacities, consistently struggle to produce both coherent and diverse data. To address the coherency issue, we introduce contrastive expert guidance, where the difference between the logit distributions of fine-tuned and base language models is emphasised to ensure domain adherence. In order to ensure diversity, we utilise existing real and synthetic examples as negative prompts to the model. We deem this dual-pronged approach to logit reshaping as STEER: Semantic Text Enhancement via Embedding Repositioning. STEER operates at inference-time and systematically guides the LLMs to strike a balance between adherence to the data distribution (ensuring semantic fidelity) and deviation from prior synthetic examples or existing real datasets (ensuring diversity and authenticity). This delicate balancing act is achieved by dynamically moving towards or away from chosen representations in the latent space. STEER demonstrates improved performance over previous synthetic data generation techniques, exhibiting better balance between data diversity and coherency across three distinct tasks: hypothesis generation, toxic and non-toxic comment generation, and commonsense reasoning task generation. We demonstrate how STEER allows for fine-tuned control over the diversity-coherency trade-off via its hyperparameters, highlighting its versatility.
Continual shrinking of pattern dimensions in the semiconductor domain is making it increasingly difficult to inspect defects due to factors such as the presence of stochastic noise and the dynamic behavior of defect patterns and types. Conventional rule-based methods and non-parametric supervised machine learning algorithms like KNN mostly fail at the requirements of semiconductor defect inspection at these advanced nodes. Deep Learning (DL)-based methods have gained popularity in the semiconductor defect inspection domain because they have been proven robust towards these challenging scenarios. In this research work, we have presented an automated DL-based approach for efficient localization and classification of defects in SEM images. We have proposed SEMI-CenterNet (SEMI-CN), a customized CN architecture trained on SEM images of semiconductor wafer defects. The use of the proposed CN approach allows improved computational efficiency compared to previously studied DL models. SEMI-CN gets trained to output the center, class, size, and offset of a defect instance. This is different from the approach of most object detection models that use anchors for bounding box prediction. Previous methods predict redundant bounding boxes, most of which are discarded in postprocessing. CN mitigates this by only predicting boxes for likely defect center points. We train SEMI-CN on two datasets and benchmark two ResNet backbones for the framework. Initially, ResNet models pretrained on the COCO dataset undergo training using two datasets separately. Primarily, SEMI-CN shows significant improvement in inference time against previous research works. Finally, transfer learning (using weights of custom SEM dataset) is applied from ADI dataset to AEI dataset and vice-versa, which reduces the required training time for both backbones to reach the best mAP against conventional training method.
Owing to effective and flexible data acquisition, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has recently become a hotspot across the fields of computer vision (CV) and remote sensing (RS). Inspired by recent success of deep learning (DL), many advanced object detection and tracking approaches have been widely applied to various UAV-related tasks, such as environmental monitoring, precision agriculture, traffic management. This paper provides a comprehensive survey on the research progress and prospects of DL-based UAV object detection and tracking methods. More specifically, we first outline the challenges, statistics of existing methods, and provide solutions from the perspectives of DL-based models in three research topics: object detection from the image, object detection from the video, and object tracking from the video. Open datasets related to UAV-dominated object detection and tracking are exhausted, and four benchmark datasets are employed for performance evaluation using some state-of-the-art methods. Finally, prospects and considerations for the future work are discussed and summarized. It is expected that this survey can facilitate those researchers who come from remote sensing field with an overview of DL-based UAV object detection and tracking methods, along with some thoughts on their further developments.
Deep neural models in recent years have been successful in almost every field, including extremely complex problem statements. However, these models are huge in size, with millions (and even billions) of parameters, thus demanding more heavy computation power and failing to be deployed on edge devices. Besides, the performance boost is highly dependent on redundant labeled data. To achieve faster speeds and to handle the problems caused by the lack of data, knowledge distillation (KD) has been proposed to transfer information learned from one model to another. KD is often characterized by the so-called `Student-Teacher' (S-T) learning framework and has been broadly applied in model compression and knowledge transfer. This paper is about KD and S-T learning, which are being actively studied in recent years. First, we aim to provide explanations of what KD is and how/why it works. Then, we provide a comprehensive survey on the recent progress of KD methods together with S-T frameworks typically for vision tasks. In general, we consider some fundamental questions that have been driving this research area and thoroughly generalize the research progress and technical details. Additionally, we systematically analyze the research status of KD in vision applications. Finally, we discuss the potentials and open challenges of existing methods and prospect the future directions of KD and S-T learning.
Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.
Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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