In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated inter-losses times, (2) non-exponentially distributed inter-losses times and, (3) overdisperse losses counts. Some quantities of interest to measure persistence in the loss occurrence process are obtained. Given a real operational risk database, the aggregate loss model is estimated by fitting separately the inter-losses times and severities. The MAP2 is estimated via direct maximization of the likelihood function, and severities are modeled by the heavy-tailed, double-Pareto Lognormal distribution. In comparison with the fit provided by the Poisson process, the results point out that taking into account the dependence and overdispersion in the inter-losses times distribution leads to higher capital charges.
In recent years, power analysis has become widely used in applied sciences, with the increasing importance of the replicability issue. When distribution-free methods, such as Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based approaches, are considered, formulating power analysis turns out to be challenging. In this study, we introduce the methodological framework of a new procedure for performing power analysis when PLS-based methods are used. Data are simulated by the Monte Carlo method, assuming the null hypothesis of no effect is false and exploiting the latent structure estimated by PLS in the pilot data. In this way, the complex correlation data structure is explicitly considered in power analysis and sample size estimation. The paper offers insights into selecting statistical tests for the power analysis procedure, comparing accuracy-based tests and those based on continuous parameters estimated by PLS. Simulated and real datasets are investigated to show how the method works in practice.
Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, variational inference and stochastic calculus, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We show that these phase-transitions are always in a mean-field universality class, as they are the result of a self-consistency condition in the generative dynamics. We argue that the critical instability that arises from the phase transitions lies at the heart of their generative capabilities, which are characterized by a set of mean field critical exponents. Furthermore, using the statistical physics of disordered systems, we show that memorization can be understood as a form of critical condensation corresponding to a disordered phase transition. Finally, we show that the dynamic equation of the generative process can be interpreted as a stochastic adiabatic transformation that minimizes the free energy while keeping the system in thermal equilibrium.
This paper develops an in-depth treatment concerning the problem of approximating the Gaussian smoothing and Gaussian derivative computations in scale-space theory for application on discrete data. With close connections to previous axiomatic treatments of continuous and discrete scale-space theory, we consider three main ways discretizing these scale-space operations in terms of explicit discrete convolutions, based on either (i) sampling the Gaussian kernels and the Gaussian derivative kernels, (ii) locally integrating the Gaussian kernels and the Gaussian derivative kernels over each pixel support region and (iii) basing the scale-space analysis on the discrete analogue of the Gaussian kernel, and then computing derivative approximations by applying small-support central difference operators to the spatially smoothed image data. We study the properties of these three main discretization methods both theoretically and experimentally, and characterize their performance by quantitative measures, including the results they give rise to with respect to the task of scale selection, investigated for four different use cases, and with emphasis on the behaviour at fine scales. The results show that the sampled Gaussian kernels and derivatives as well as the integrated Gaussian kernels and derivatives perform very poorly at very fine scales. At very fine scales, the discrete analogue of the Gaussian kernel with its corresponding discrete derivative approximations performs substantially better. The sampled Gaussian kernel and the sampled Gaussian derivatives do, on the other hand, lead to numerically very good approximations of the corresponding continuous results, when the scale parameter is sufficiently large, in the experiments presented in the paper, when the scale parameter is greater than a value of about 1, in units of the grid spacing.
Regression models that incorporate smooth functions of predictor variables to explain the relationships with a response variable have gained widespread usage and proved successful in various applications. By incorporating smooth functions of predictor variables, these models can capture complex relationships between the response and predictors while still allowing for interpretation of the results. In situations where the relationships between a response variable and predictors are explored, it is not uncommon to assume that these relationships adhere to certain shape constraints. Examples of such constraints include monotonicity and convexity. The scam package for R has become a popular package to carry out the full fitting of exponential family generalized additive modelling with shape restrictions on smooths. The paper aims to extend the existing framework of shape-constrained generalized additive models (SCAM) to accommodate smooth interactions of covariates, linear functionals of shape-constrained smooths and incorporation of residual autocorrelation. The methods described in this paper are implemented in the recent version of the package scam, available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
In this article, we study the Fekete problem in segmental and combined nodal-segmental univariate polynomial interpolation by investigating sets of segments, or segments combined with nodes, such that the Vandermonde determinant for the respective polynomial interpolation problem is maximized. For particular families of segments, we will be able to find explicit solutions of the corresponding maximization problem. The quality of the Fekete segments depends hereby strongly on the utilized normalization of the segmental information in the Vandermonde matrix. To measure the quality of the Fekete segments in interpolation, we analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the generalized Lebesgue constant linked to the interpolation problem. For particular sets of Fekete segments we will get, similar to the nodal case, a favourable logarithmic growth of this constant.
In many communication contexts, the capabilities of the involved actors cannot be known beforehand, whether it is a cell, a plant, an insect, or even a life form unknown to Earth. Regardless of the recipient, the message space and time scale could be too fast, too slow, too large, or too small and may never be decoded. Therefore, it pays to devise a way to encode messages agnostic of space and time scales. We propose the use of fractal functions as self-executable infinite-frequency carriers for sending messages, given their properties of structural self-similarity and scale invariance. We call it `fractal messaging'. Starting from a spatial embedding, we introduce a framework for a space-time scale-free messaging approach to this challenge. When considering a space and time-agnostic framework for message transmission, it would be interesting to encode a message such that it could be decoded at several spatio-temporal scales. Hence, the core idea of the framework proposed herein is to encode a binary message as waves along infinitely many frequencies (in power-like distributions) and amplitudes, transmit such a message, and then decode and reproduce it. To do so, the components of the Weierstrass function, a known fractal, are used as carriers of the message. Each component will have its amplitude modulated to embed the binary stream, allowing for a space-time-agnostic approach to messaging.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss other binomial regression models obtained through alternating link functions and prove the existence of similar penalized maximum likelihood estimates for such models.
For regression model selection under the maximum likelihood framework, we study the likelihood ratio confidence region for the regression parameter vector of a full regression model. We show that, when the confidence level increases with the sample size at a certain speed, with probability tending to one, the confidence region contains only vectors representing models having all active variables, including the parameter vector of the true model. This result leads to a consistent model selection criterion with a sparse maximum likelihood interpretation and certain advantages over popular information criteria. It also provides a large-sample characterization of models of maximum likelihood at different model sizes which shows that, for selection consistency, it suffices to consider only this small set of models.
With an aim to analyse the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, in our recent work we derive a large deviation principle (LDP) for the empirical measures of Metropolis-Hastings (MH) chains on a continuous state space. One of the (sufficient) assumptions for the LDP involves the existence of a particular type of Lyapunov function, and it was left as an open question whether or not such a function exists for specific choices of MH samplers. In this paper we analyse the properties of such Lyapunov functions and investigate their existence for some of the most popular choices of MCMC samplers built on MH dynamics: Independent Metropolis Hastings, Random Walk Metropolis, and the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm. We establish under what conditions such a Lyapunov function exists, and from this obtain LDPs for some instances of the MCMC algorithms under consideration. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first large deviation results for empirical measures associated with Metropolis-Hastings chains for specific choices of proposal and target distributions.
We propose an implicit Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization for incompressible two-phase flows using an artificial compressibility formulation. The conservative level set (CLS) method is employed in combination with a reinitialization procedure to capture the moving interface. A projection method based on the L-stable TR-BDF2 method is adopted for the time discretization of the Navier-Stokes equations and of the level set method. Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) is employed to enhance the resolution in correspondence of the interface between the two fluids. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is shown in a number of classical benchmarks. A specific analysis on the influence of different choices of the mixture viscosity is also carried out.