Time series clustering is a central machine learning task with applications in many fields. While the majority of the methods focus on real-valued time series, very few works consider series with discrete response. In this paper, the problem of clustering ordinal time series is addressed. To this aim, two novel distances between ordinal time series are introduced and used to construct fuzzy clustering procedures. Both metrics are functions of the estimated cumulative probabilities, thus automatically taking advantage of the ordering inherent to the series' range. The resulting clustering algorithms are computationally efficient and able to group series generated from similar stochastic processes, reaching accurate results even though the series come from a wide variety of models. Since the dynamic of the series may vary over the time, we adopt a fuzzy approach, thus enabling the procedures to locate each series into several clusters with different membership degrees. An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed methods outperform several alternative procedures. Weighted versions of the clustering algorithms are also presented and their advantages with respect to the original methods are discussed. Two specific applications involving economic time series illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches.
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Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
This paper is motivated by medical studies in which the same patients with multiple sclerosis are examined at several successive visits and described by fractional anisotropy tract profiles, which can be represented as functions. Since the observations for each patient are dependent random processes, they follow a repeated measures design for functional data. To compare the results for different visits, we thus consider functional repeated measures analysis of variance. For this purpose, a pointwise test statistic is constructed by adapting the classical test statistic for one-way repeated measures analysis of variance to the functional data framework. By integrating and taking the supremum of the pointwise test statistic, we create two global test statistics. Apart from verifying the general null hypothesis on the equality of mean functions corresponding to different objects, we also propose a simple method for post hoc analysis. We illustrate the finite sample properties of permutation and bootstrap testing procedures in an extensive simulation study. Finally, we analyze a motivating real data example in detail.
Even as machine learning exceeds human-level performance on many applications, the generality, robustness, and rapidity of the brain's learning capabilities remain unmatched. How cognition arises from neural activity is a central open question in neuroscience, inextricable from the study of intelligence itself. A simple formal model of neural activity was proposed in Papadimitriou [2020] and has been subsequently shown, through both mathematical proofs and simulations, to be capable of implementing certain simple cognitive operations via the creation and manipulation of assemblies of neurons. However, many intelligent behaviors rely on the ability to recognize, store, and manipulate temporal sequences of stimuli (planning, language, navigation, to list a few). Here we show that, in the same model, time can be captured naturally as precedence through synaptic weights and plasticity, and, as a result, a range of computations on sequences of assemblies can be carried out. In particular, repeated presentation of a sequence of stimuli leads to the memorization of the sequence through corresponding neural assemblies: upon future presentation of any stimulus in the sequence, the corresponding assembly and its subsequent ones will be activated, one after the other, until the end of the sequence. Finally, we show that any finite state machine can be learned in a similar way, through the presentation of appropriate patterns of sequences. Through an extension of this mechanism, the model can be shown to be capable of universal computation. We support our analysis with a number of experiments to probe the limits of learning in this model in key ways. Taken together, these results provide a concrete hypothesis for the basis of the brain's remarkable abilities to compute and learn, with sequences playing a vital role.
The ongoing deep learning revolution has allowed computers to outclass humans in various games and perceive features imperceptible to humans during classification tasks. Current machine learning techniques have clearly distinguished themselves in specialized tasks. However, we have yet to see robots capable of performing multiple tasks at an expert level. Most work in this field is focused on the development of more sophisticated learning algorithms for a robot's controller given a largely static and presupposed robotic design. By focusing on the development of robotic bodies, rather than neural controllers, I have discovered that robots can be designed such that they overcome many of the current pitfalls encountered by neural controllers in multitask settings. Through this discovery, I also present novel metrics to explicitly measure the learning ability of a robotic design and its resistance to common problems such as catastrophic interference. Traditionally, the physical robot design requires human engineers to plan every aspect of the system, which is expensive and often relies on human intuition. In contrast, within the field of evolutionary robotics, evolutionary algorithms are used to automatically create optimized designs, however, such designs are often still limited in their ability to perform in a multitask setting. The metrics created and presented here give a novel path to automated design that allow evolved robots to synergize with their controller to improve the computational efficiency of their learning while overcoming catastrophic interference. Overall, this dissertation intimates the ability to automatically design robots that are more general purpose than current robots and that can perform various tasks while requiring less computation.
This study employed the MIMIC-IV database as data source to investigate the use of dynamic, high-frequency, multivariate time-series vital signs data, including temperature, heart rate, mean blood pressure, respiratory rate, and SpO2, monitored first 8 hours data in the ICU stay. Various clustering algorithms were compared, and an end-to-end multivariate time series clustering system called Time2Feat, combined with K-Means, was chosen as the most effective method to cluster patients in the ICU. In clustering analysis, data of 8,080 patients admitted between 2008 and 2016 was used for model development and 2,038 patients admitted between 2017 and 2019 for model validation. By analyzing the differences in clinical mortality prognosis among different categories, varying risks of ICU mortality and hospital mortality were found between different subgroups. Furthermore, the study visualized the trajectory of vital signs changes. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the potential use of multivariate time-series clustering systems in patient management and monitoring in the ICU setting.
Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.
We address the problem of controlling Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) in conflict areas of a traffic network subject to hard safety constraints. It has been shown that such problems can be solved through a combination of tractable optimal control problems and Control Barrier Functions (CBFs) that guarantee the satisfaction of all constraints. These solutions can be reduced to a sequence of Quadratic Programs (QPs) which are efficiently solved on line over discrete time steps. However, guaranteeing the feasibility of the CBF-based QP method within each discretized time interval requires the careful selection of time steps which need to be sufficiently small. This creates computational requirements and communication rates between agents which may hinder the controller's application to real CAVs. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by adopting an event-triggered approach for CAVs in a conflict area such that the next QP is triggered by properly defined events with a safety guarantee. We present a laboratory-scale test bed we have developed to emulate merging roadways using mobile robots as CAVs which can be used to demonstrate how the event-triggered scheme is computationally efficient and can handle measurement uncertainties and noise compared to time-driven control while guaranteeing safety.
Understanding traffic participants' behaviour is crucial for predicting their future trajectories, aiding in developing safe and reliable planning systems for autonomous vehicles. Integrating cognitive processes and machine learning models has shown promise in other domains but is lacking in the trajectory forecasting of multiple traffic agents in large-scale autonomous driving datasets. This work investigates the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model Trajectron++ which we enhance by incorporating a smoothing term in its attention module. This attention mechanism mimics human attention inspired by cognitive science research indicating limits to attention switching. We evaluate the performance of the resulting Smooth-Trajectron++ model and compare it to the original model on various benchmarks, revealing the potential of incorporating insights from human cognition into trajectory prediction models.
Modern time series data often exhibit complex dependence and structural changes which are not easily characterised by shifts in the mean or model parameters. We propose a nonparametric data segmentation methodology for multivariate time series termed NP-MOJO. By considering joint characteristic functions between the time series and its lagged values, NP-MOJO is able to detect change points in the marginal distribution, but also those in possibly non-linear serial dependence, all without the need to pre-specify the type of changes. We show the theoretical consistency of NP-MOJO in estimating the total number and the locations of the change points, and demonstrate the good performance of NP-MOJO against a variety of change point scenarios. We further demonstrate its usefulness in applications to seismology and economic time series.
In this paper, we propose a one-stage online clustering method called Contrastive Clustering (CC) which explicitly performs the instance- and cluster-level contrastive learning. To be specific, for a given dataset, the positive and negative instance pairs are constructed through data augmentations and then projected into a feature space. Therein, the instance- and cluster-level contrastive learning are respectively conducted in the row and column space by maximizing the similarities of positive pairs while minimizing those of negative ones. Our key observation is that the rows of the feature matrix could be regarded as soft labels of instances, and accordingly the columns could be further regarded as cluster representations. By simultaneously optimizing the instance- and cluster-level contrastive loss, the model jointly learns representations and cluster assignments in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experimental results show that CC remarkably outperforms 17 competitive clustering methods on six challenging image benchmarks. In particular, CC achieves an NMI of 0.705 (0.431) on the CIFAR-10 (CIFAR-100) dataset, which is an up to 19\% (39\%) performance improvement compared with the best baseline.
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