While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of related time series can boost the forecasting accuracy. However, the accuracy of these methods suffers greatly when modeling out-of-sample time series, significantly limiting their applicability compared to classical forecasting methods. To bridge this gap, we adopt a meta-learning view of the time series forecasting problem. We introduce a novel forecasting method, called Meta Global-Local Auto-Regression (Meta-GLAR), that adapts to each time series by learning in closed-form the mapping from the representations produced by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to one-step-ahead forecasts. Crucially, the parameters ofthe RNN are learned across multiple time series by backpropagating through the closed-form adaptation mechanism. In our extensive empirical evaluation we show that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy reported in earlier work.
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Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting plays an important role in the automation and optimization of intelligent applications. It is a challenging task, as we need to consider both complex intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. Existing works only learn temporal patterns with the help of single inter-variable dependencies. However, there are multi-scale temporal patterns in many real-world MTS. Single inter-variable dependencies make the model prefer to learn one type of prominent and shared temporal patterns. In this paper, we propose a multi-scale adaptive graph neural network (MAGNN) to address the above issue. MAGNN exploits a multi-scale pyramid network to preserve the underlying temporal dependencies at different time scales. Since the inter-variable dependencies may be different under distinct time scales, an adaptive graph learning module is designed to infer the scale-specific inter-variable dependencies without pre-defined priors. Given the multi-scale feature representations and scale-specific inter-variable dependencies, a multi-scale temporal graph neural network is introduced to jointly model intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. After that, we develop a scale-wise fusion module to effectively promote the collaboration across different time scales, and automatically capture the importance of contributed temporal patterns. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that MAGNN outperforms the state-of-the-art methods across various settings.
Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.
Self-supervised learning has been widely used to obtain transferrable representations from unlabeled images. Especially, recent contrastive learning methods have shown impressive performances on downstream image classification tasks. While these contrastive methods mainly focus on generating invariant global representations at the image-level under semantic-preserving transformations, they are prone to overlook spatial consistency of local representations and therefore have a limitation in pretraining for localization tasks such as object detection and instance segmentation. Moreover, aggressively cropped views used in existing contrastive methods can minimize representation distances between the semantically different regions of a single image. In this paper, we propose a spatially consistent representation learning algorithm (SCRL) for multi-object and location-specific tasks. In particular, we devise a novel self-supervised objective that tries to produce coherent spatial representations of a randomly cropped local region according to geometric translations and zooming operations. On various downstream localization tasks with benchmark datasets, the proposed SCRL shows significant performance improvements over the image-level supervised pretraining as well as the state-of-the-art self-supervised learning methods.
Few-shot classification aims to recognize unseen classes when presented with only a small number of samples. We consider the problem of multi-domain few-shot image classification, where unseen classes and examples come from diverse data sources. This problem has seen growing interest and has inspired the development of benchmarks such as Meta-Dataset. A key challenge in this multi-domain setting is to effectively integrate the feature representations from the diverse set of training domains. Here, we propose a Universal Representation Transformer (URT) layer, that meta-learns to leverage universal features for few-shot classification by dynamically re-weighting and composing the most appropriate domain-specific representations. In experiments, we show that URT sets a new state-of-the-art result on Meta-Dataset. Specifically, it achieves top-performance on the highest number of data sources compared to competing methods. We analyze variants of URT and present a visualization of the attention score heatmaps that sheds light on how the model performs cross-domain generalization. Our code is available at //github.com/liulu112601/URT.
A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.
There has been appreciable progress in unsupervised network representation learning (UNRL) approaches over graphs recently with flexible random-walk approaches, new optimization objectives and deep architectures. However, there is no common ground for systematic comparison of embeddings to understand their behavior for different graphs and tasks. In this paper we theoretically group different approaches under a unifying framework and empirically investigate the effectiveness of different network representation methods. In particular, we argue that most of the UNRL approaches either explicitly or implicit model and exploit context information of a node. Consequently, we propose a framework that casts a variety of approaches -- random walk based, matrix factorization and deep learning based -- into a unified context-based optimization function. We systematically group the methods based on their similarities and differences. We study the differences among these methods in detail which we later use to explain their performance differences (on downstream tasks). We conduct a large-scale empirical study considering 9 popular and recent UNRL techniques and 11 real-world datasets with varying structural properties and two common tasks -- node classification and link prediction. We find that there is no single method that is a clear winner and that the choice of a suitable method is dictated by certain properties of the embedding methods, task and structural properties of the underlying graph. In addition we also report the common pitfalls in evaluation of UNRL methods and come up with suggestions for experimental design and interpretation of results.
Combining clustering and representation learning is one of the most promising approaches for unsupervised learning of deep neural networks. However, doing so naively leads to ill posed learning problems with degenerate solutions. In this paper, we propose a novel and principled learning formulation that addresses these issues. The method is obtained by maximizing the information between labels and input data indices. We show that this criterion extends standard cross-entropy minimization to an optimal transport problem, which we solve efficiently for millions of input images and thousands of labels using a fast variant of the Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm. The resulting method is able to self-label visual data so as to train highly competitive image representations without manual labels. Compared to the best previous method in this class, namely DeepCluster, our formulation minimizes a single objective function for both representation learning and clustering; it also significantly outperforms DeepCluster in standard benchmarks and reaches state of the art for learning a ResNet-50 self-supervisedly.
Continual learning aims to improve the ability of modern learning systems to deal with non-stationary distributions, typically by attempting to learn a series of tasks sequentially. Prior art in the field has largely considered supervised or reinforcement learning tasks, and often assumes full knowledge of task labels and boundaries. In this work, we propose an approach (CURL) to tackle a more general problem that we will refer to as unsupervised continual learning. The focus is on learning representations without any knowledge about task identity, and we explore scenarios when there are abrupt changes between tasks, smooth transitions from one task to another, or even when the data is shuffled. The proposed approach performs task inference directly within the model, is able to dynamically expand to capture new concepts over its lifetime, and incorporates additional rehearsal-based techniques to deal with catastrophic forgetting. We demonstrate the efficacy of CURL in an unsupervised learning setting with MNIST and Omniglot, where the lack of labels ensures no information is leaked about the task. Further, we demonstrate strong performance compared to prior art in an i.i.d setting, or when adapting the technique to supervised tasks such as incremental class learning.
Recently advancements in sequence-to-sequence neural network architectures have led to an improved natural language understanding. When building a neural network-based Natural Language Understanding component, one main challenge is to collect enough training data. The generation of a synthetic dataset is an inexpensive and quick way to collect data. Since this data often has less variety than real natural language, neural networks often have problems to generalize to unseen utterances during testing. In this work, we address this challenge by using multi-task learning. We train out-of-domain real data alongside in-domain synthetic data to improve natural language understanding. We evaluate this approach in the domain of airline travel information with two synthetic datasets. As out-of-domain real data, we test two datasets based on the subtitles of movies and series. By using an attention-based encoder-decoder model, we were able to improve the F1-score over strong baselines from 80.76 % to 84.98 % in the smaller synthetic dataset.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
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