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Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature due to their usefulness in decision making, particularly for high-consequence decisions. However, there has been little research done on how to evaluate the quality of such methods. We use statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage and interval width to evaluate the quality of credible intervals, and expected calibration error to evaluate classification predicted confidence. These metrics are evaluated on Bayesian neural networks (BNN) fit using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), bootstrapped neural networks (NN), Deep Ensembles (DE), and Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. We apply these different UQ for DL methods to a hyperspectral image target detection problem and show the inconsistency of the different methods' results and the necessity of a UQ quality metric. To reconcile these differences and choose a UQ method that appropriately quantifies the uncertainty, we create a simulated data set with fully parameterized probability distribution for a two-class classification problem. The gold standard MCMC performs the best overall, and the bootstrapped NN is a close second, requiring the same computational expense as DE. Through this comparison, we demonstrate that, for a given data set, different models can produce uncertainty estimates of markedly different quality. This in turn points to a great need for principled assessment methods of UQ quality in DL applications.

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Expecting intelligent machines to efficiently work in real world requires a new method to understand unstructured information in unknown environments with good accuracy, scalability and generalization, like human. Here, a memristive neural computing based perceptual signal differential processing and learning method for intelligent machines is presented, via extracting main features of environmental information and applying associated encoded stimuli to memristors, we successfully obtain human-like ability in processing unstructured environmental information, such as amplification (>720%) and adaptation (<50%) of mechanical stimuli. The method also exhibits good scalability and generalization, validated in two typical applications of intelligent machines: object grasping and autonomous driving. In the former, a robot hand experimentally realizes safe and stable grasping, through learning unknown object features (e.g., sharp corner and smooth surface) with a single memristor in 1 ms. In the latter, the decision-making information of 10 unstructured environments in autonomous driving (e.g., overtaking cars, pedestrians) are accurately (94%) extracted with a 40x25 memristor array. By mimicking the intrinsic nature of human low-level perception mechanisms in electronic memristive neural circuits, the proposed method is adaptable to diverse sensing technologies, helping intelligent machines to generate smart high-level decisions in real world.

Temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactors enable experiments that probe numerous kinetic processes within a single set of experimental data through variations in pulse intensity, delay, or temperature. Selecting additional TAP experiments often involves arbitrary selection of reaction conditions or the use of chemical intuition. To make experiment selection in TAP more robust, we explore the efficacy of model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) for precision in TAP reactor kinetic modeling. We successfully applied this approach to a case study of synthetic oxidative propane dehydrogenation (OPDH) that involves pulses of propane and oxygen. We found that experiments identified as optimal through the MBDoE for precision generally reduce parameter uncertainties to a higher degree than alternative experiments. The performance of MBDoE for model divergence was also explored for OPDH, with the relevant active sites (catalyst structure) being unknown. An experiment that maximized the divergence between the three proposed mechanisms was identified and led to clear mechanism discrimination. However, re-optimization of kinetic parameters eliminated the ability to discriminate. The findings yield insight into the prospects and limitations of MBDoE for TAP and transient kinetic experiments.

Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of changes in the reproduction number, but is challenging to work with because cases fluctuate due to factors unrelated to the number of new infections. We develop a new model that incorporates the number of diagnostic tests as a surveillance model covariate. Using simulated data and data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in California, we demonstrate that incorporating tests leads to improved performance over the state-of-the-art.

Federated learning is a distributed learning framework that allows a set of clients to collaboratively train a model under the orchestration of a central server, without sharing raw data samples. Although in many practical scenarios the derivatives of the objective function are not available, only few works have considered the federated zeroth-order setting, in which functions can only be accessed through a budgeted number of point evaluations. In this work we focus on convex optimization and design the first federated zeroth-order algorithm to estimate the curvature of the global objective, with the purpose of achieving superlinear convergence. We take an incremental Hessian estimator whose error norm converges linearly, and we adapt it to the federated zeroth-order setting, sampling the random search directions from the Stiefel manifold for improved performance. In particular, both the gradient and Hessian estimators are built at the central server in a communication-efficient and privacy-preserving way by leveraging synchronized pseudo-random number generators. We provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm, named FedZeN, proving local quadratic convergence with high probability and global linear convergence up to zeroth-order precision. Numerical simulations confirm the superlinear convergence rate and show that our algorithm outperforms the federated zeroth-order methods available in the literature.

What is the best paradigm to recognize objects -- discriminative inference (fast but potentially prone to shortcut learning) or using a generative model (slow but potentially more robust)? We build on recent advances in generative modeling that turn text-to-image models into classifiers. This allows us to study their behavior and to compare them against discriminative models and human psychophysical data. We report four intriguing emergent properties of generative classifiers: they show a record-breaking human-like shape bias (99% for Imagen), near human-level out-of-distribution accuracy, state-of-the-art alignment with human classification errors, and they understand certain perceptual illusions. Our results indicate that while the current dominant paradigm for modeling human object recognition is discriminative inference, zero-shot generative models approximate human object recognition data surprisingly well.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

Deterministic planning assumes that the planning evolves along a fully predictable path, and therefore it loses the practical value in most real projections. A more realistic view is that planning ought to take into consideration partial observability beforehand and aim for a more flexible and robust solution. What is more significant, it is inevitable that the quality of plan varies dramatically in the partially observable environment. In this paper we propose a probabilistic contingent Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) planner, named High-Quality Contingent Planner (HQCP), to generate high-quality plans in the partially observable environment. The formalisms in HTN planning are extended into partial observability and are evaluated regarding the cost. Next, we explore a novel heuristic for high-quality plans and develop the integrated planning algorithm. Finally, an empirical study verifies the effectiveness and efficiency of the planner both in probabilistic contingent planning and for obtaining high-quality plans.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.

A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.

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