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In this paper, we show how a dynamic population game can model the strategic interaction and migration decisions made by a large population of agents in response to epidemic prevalence. Specifically, we consider a modified susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered (SAIR) epidemic model over multiple zones. Agents choose whether to activate (i.e., interact with others), how many other agents to interact with, and which zone to move to in a time-scale which is comparable with the epidemic evolution. We define and analyze the notion of equilibrium in this game, and investigate the transient behavior of the epidemic spread in a range of numerical case studies, providing insights on the effects of the agents' degree of future awareness, strategic migration decisions, as well as different levels of lockdown and other interventions. One of our key findings is that the strategic behavior of agents plays an important role in the progression of the epidemic and can be exploited in order to design suitable epidemic control measures.

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IFIP TC13 Conference on Human-Computer Interaction是人機交互領域的研究者和實踐者展示其工作的重要平臺。多年來,這些會議吸引了來自幾個國家和文化的研究人員。官網鏈接: · Automator · 優化器 · HER · TOOLS ·
2021 年 10 月 26 日

Automated decision-making tools increasingly assess individuals to determine if they qualify for high-stakes opportunities. A recent line of research investigates how strategic agents may respond to such scoring tools to receive favorable assessments. While prior work has focused on the short-term strategic interactions between a decision-making institution (modeled as a principal) and individual decision-subjects (modeled as agents), we investigate interactions spanning multiple time-steps. In particular, we consider settings in which the agent's effort investment today can accumulate over time in the form of an internal state - impacting both his future rewards and that of the principal. We characterize the Stackelberg equilibrium of the resulting game and provide novel algorithms for computing it. Our analysis reveals several intriguing insights about the role of multiple interactions in shaping the game's outcome: First, we establish that in our stateful setting, the class of all linear assessment policies remains as powerful as the larger class of all monotonic assessment policies. While recovering the principal's optimal policy requires solving a non-convex optimization problem, we provide polynomial-time algorithms for recovering both the principal and agent's optimal policies under common assumptions about the process by which effort investments convert to observable features. Most importantly, we show that with multiple rounds of interaction at her disposal, the principal is more effective at incentivizing the agent to accumulate effort in her desired direction. Our work addresses several critical gaps in the growing literature on the societal impacts of automated decision-making - by focusing on longer time horizons and accounting for the compounding nature of decisions individuals receive over time.

Blockchain eliminates the need for trusted third party intermediaries in business by enabling decentralised architecture in software applications. However, vulnerabilities in on-chain autonomous decision-making and cumbersome off-chain coordination have led to serious concerns about blockchain's ability to behave and make decisions in a trustworthy and efficient way. Blockchain governance has received considerable attention to support the decision-making process during the use and evolution of blockchain. Nevertheless, conventional governance frameworks are not applicable to blockchain due to its inherent distributed architecture and decentralised decision process, which leads to the absence of clear source of authority. Currently, there is a lack of systematic guidance on how blockchain governance can be implemented. Therefore, in this paper, we present a comprehensive blockchain governance framework that elucidates an integrated view of the degree of decentralisation, decision rights, incentives, accountability, ecosystem, and legal and ethical responsibilities. The proposed framework is evaluated using four well-known blockchain platforms in terms of feasibility, applicability, and usability.

Functional linear regression gets its popularity as a statistical tool to study the relationship between function-valued response and exogenous explanatory variables. However, in practice, it is hard to expect that the explanatory variables of interest are perfectly exogenous, due to, for example, the presence of omitted variables and measurement errors, and this in turn limits the applicability of the existing estimators whose essential asymptotic properties, such as consistency, are developed under the exogeneity condition. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes new instrumental variable estimators for functional endogenous linear models, and establishes their asymptotic properties. We also develop a novel test for examining if various characteristics of the response variable depend on the explanatory variable in our model. Simulation experiments under a wide range of settings show that the proposed estimators and test perform considerably well. We apply our methodology to estimate the impact of immigration on native wages.

We consider the problem of variable selection in varying-coefficient functional linear models, where multiple predictors are functions and a response is a scalar and depends on an exogenous variable. The varying-coefficient functional linear model is estimated by the penalized maximum likelihood method with the sparsity-inducing penalty. Tuning parameters that controls the degree of the penalization are determined by a model selection criterion. The proposed method can reveal which combination of functional predictors relates to the response, and furthermore how each predictor relates to the response by investigating coefficient surfaces. Simulation studies are provided to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We also apply it to the analysis of crop yield data to investigate which combination of environmental factors relates to the amount of a crop yield.

The evolution of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number Rt, is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often face problems such as lagging observations, averaging inference, and improper quantification of uncertainties. To address these problems, we propose a Bayesian data assimilation framework for time-varying parameter estimation. Specifically, this framework is applied to Rt estimation, resulting in the state-of-the-art DARt system. With DARt, time misalignment caused by lagging observations is tackled by incorporating observation delays into the joint inference of infections and Rt; the drawback of averaging is overcome by instantaneously updating upon new observations and developing a model selection mechanism that captures abrupt changes; the uncertainty is quantified and reduced by employing Bayesian smoothing. We validate the performance of DARt and demonstrate its power in revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The proposed approach provides a promising solution for accurate and timely estimating transmission dynamics from reported data.

Underactuated legged robots depict highly nonlinear and complex dynamical behaviors that create significant challenges in accurately modeling system dynamics using both first principles and system identification approaches. Hence, it makes a more substantial challenge to design stabilizing controllers. If physical parameters on mathematical models have miscalibrations due to uncertainty in identifying and modeling processes, designed controllers could perform poorly or even result in unstable responses. Moreover, these parameters can certainly change-over-time due to operation and environmental conditions. In that respect, analogous to a living organism modifying its behavior in response to novel conditions, adapting/updating system parameters, such as spring constant, to compensate for modeling errors could provide the advantage of constructing a stable gait level controller without needing "exact" dynamical parameter values. This paper presents an online, model-based adaptive control approach for an underactuated planar hexapod robot's pronking behavior adopted from antelope species. We show through systematic simulation studies that the adaptive control policy is robust to high levels of parameter uncertainties compared to a non-adaptive model-based dead-beat controller.

National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, simultaneously exact an economic toll. We developed a intervention policy model that comprised the relative human, economic and healthcare costs of non-pharmaceutical epidemic intervention and arrived at the optimal strategy using the neuroevolution algorithm. The proposed model finds the minimum required reduction in contact rates to maintain the burden on the healthcare system below the maximum capacity. We find that such a policy renders a sharp increase in the control strength at the early stages of the epidemic, followed by a steady increase in the subsequent ten weeks as the epidemic approaches its peak, and finally control strength is gradually decreased as the population moves towards herd immunity. We have also shown how such a model can provide an efficient adaptive intervention policy at different stages of the epidemic without having access to the entire history of its progression in the population. This work emphasizes the importance of imposing intervention measures early and provides insights into adaptive intervention policies to minimize the economic impacts of the epidemic without putting an extra burden on the healthcare system.

We consider a multi-armed bandit problem in which a set of arms is registered by each agent, and the agent receives reward when its arm is selected. An agent might strategically submit more arms with replications, which can bring more reward by abusing the bandit algorithm's exploration-exploitation balance. Our analysis reveals that a standard algorithm indeed fails at preventing replication and suffers from linear regret in time $T$. We aim to design a bandit algorithm which demotivates replications and also achieves a small cumulative regret. We devise Hierarchical UCB (H-UCB) of replication-proof, which has $O(\ln T)$-regret under any equilibrium. We further propose Robust Hierarchical UCB (RH-UCB) which has a sublinear regret even in a realistic scenario with irrational agents replicating careless. We verify our theoretical findings through numerical experiments.

Distance metric learning based on triplet loss has been applied with success in a wide range of applications such as face recognition, image retrieval, speaker change detection and recently recommendation with the CML model. However, as we show in this article, CML requires large batches to work reasonably well because of a too simplistic uniform negative sampling strategy for selecting triplets. Due to memory limitations, this makes it difficult to scale in high-dimensional scenarios. To alleviate this problem, we propose here a 2-stage negative sampling strategy which finds triplets that are highly informative for learning. Our strategy allows CML to work effectively in terms of accuracy and popularity bias, even when the batch size is an order of magnitude smaller than what would be needed with the default uniform sampling. We demonstrate the suitability of the proposed strategy for recommendation and exhibit consistent positive results across various datasets.

Although reinforcement learning methods can achieve impressive results in simulation, the real world presents two major challenges: generating samples is exceedingly expensive, and unexpected perturbations can cause proficient but narrowly-learned policies to fail at test time. In this work, we propose to learn how to quickly and effectively adapt online to new situations as well as to perturbations. To enable sample-efficient meta-learning, we consider learning online adaptation in the context of model-based reinforcement learning. Our approach trains a global model such that, when combined with recent data, the model can be be rapidly adapted to the local context. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach can enable simulated agents to adapt their behavior online to novel terrains, to a crippled leg, and in highly-dynamic environments.

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