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We extend Robins' theory of causal inference for complex longitudinal data to the case of continuously varying as opposed to discrete covariates and treatments. In particular we establish versions of the key results of the discrete theory: the g-computation formula and a collection of powerful characterizations of the g-null hypothesis of no treatment effect. This is accomplished under natural continuity hypotheses concerning the conditional distributions of the outcome variable and of the covariates given the past. We also show that our assumptions concerning counterfactual variables place no restriction on the joint distribution of the observed variables: thus in a precise sense, these assumptions are "for free," or if you prefer, harmless.

Current ethical debates on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in health care treat AI as a product of technology in three ways: First, by assessing risks and potential benefits of currently developed AI-enabled products with ethical checklists; second, by proposing ex ante lists of ethical values seen as relevant for the design and development of assisting technology, and third, by promoting AI technology to use moral reasoning as part of the automation process. Subsequently, we propose a fourth approach to AI, namely as a methodological tool to assist ethical reflection. We provide a concept of an AI-simulation informed by three separate elements: 1) stochastic human behavior models based on behavioral data for simulating realistic settings, 2) qualitative empirical data on value statements regarding internal policy, and 3) visualization components that aid in understanding the impact of changes in these variables. The potential of this approach is to inform an interdisciplinary field about anticipated ethical challenges or ethical trade-offs in concrete settings and, hence, to spark a re-evaluation of design and implementation plans. This may be particularly useful for applications that deal with extremely complex values and behavior or with limitations on the communication resources of affected persons (e.g., persons with dementia care or for care of persons with cognitive impairment). Simulation does not replace ethical reflection but does allow for detailed, context-sensitive analysis during the design process and prior to implementation. Finally, we discuss the inherently quantitative methods of analysis afforded by stochastic simulations as well as the potential for ethical discussions and how simulations with AI can improve traditional forms of thought experiments and future-oriented technology assessment.

In non-life insurance, it is essential to understand the serial dynamics and dependence structure of the longitudinal insurance data before using them. Existing actuarial literature primarily focuses on modeling, which typically assumes a lack of serial dynamics and a pre-specified dependence structure of claims across multiple years. To fill in the research gap, we develop two diagnostic tests, namely the serial dynamic test and correlation test, to assess the appropriateness of these assumptions and provide justifiable modeling directions. The tests involve the following ingredients: i) computing the change of the cross-sectional estimated parameters under a logistic regression model and the empirical residual correlations of the claim occurrence indicators across time, which serve as the indications to detect serial dynamics; ii) quantifying estimation uncertainty using the randomly weighted bootstrap approach; iii) developing asymptotic theories to construct proper test statistics. The proposed tests are examined by simulated data and applied to two non-life insurance datasets, revealing that the two datasets behave differently.

This article focuses on the study of lactating sows, where the main interest is the influence of temperature, measured throughout the day, on the lower quantiles of the daily feed intake. We outline a model framework and estimation methodology for quantile regression in scenarios with longitudinal data and functional covariates. The quantile regression model uses a time-varying regression coefficient function to quantify the association between covariates and the quantile level of interest, and it includes subject-specific intercepts to incorporate within-subject dependence. Estimation relies on spline representations of the unknown coefficient functions, and can be carried out with existing software. We introduce bootstrap procedures for bias adjustment and computation of standard errors. Analysis of the lactation data indicates, among others, that the influence of temperature increases during the lactation period.

Recent years have seen tremendous advances in the theory and application of sequential experiments. While these experiments are not always designed with hypothesis testing in mind, researchers may still be interested in performing tests after the experiment is completed. The purpose of this paper is to aid in the development of optimal tests for sequential experiments by analyzing their asymptotic properties. Our key finding is that the asymptotic power function of any test can be matched by a test in a limit experiment where a Gaussian process is observed for each treatment, and inference is made for the drifts of these processes. This result has important implications, including a powerful sufficiency result: any candidate test only needs to rely on a fixed set of statistics, regardless of the type of sequential experiment. These statistics are the number of times each treatment has been sampled by the end of the experiment, along with final value of the score (for parametric models) or efficient influence function (for non-parametric models) process for each treatment. We then characterize asymptotically optimal tests under various restrictions such as unbiasedness, \alpha-spending constraints etc. Finally, we apply our our results to three key classes of sequential experiments: costly sampling, group sequential trials, and bandit experiments, and show how optimal inference can be conducted in these scenarios.

We introduce and analyse a simple probabilistic model of article production and citation behavior that explicitly assumes that there is no decline in citability of a given article over time. It makes predictions about the number and age of items appearing in the reference list of an article. The latter topics have been studied before, but only in the context of data, and to our knowledge no models have been presented. We then perform large-scale analyses of reference list length for a variety of academic disciplines. The results show that our simple model cannot be rejected, and indeed fits the aggregated data on reference lists rather well. Over the last few decades, the relationship between total publications and mean reference list length is linear to a high level of accuracy. Although our model is clearly an oversimplification, it will likely prove useful for further modeling of the scholarly literature. Finally, we connect our work to the large literature on "aging" or "obsolescence" of scholarly publications, and argue that the importance of that area of research is no longer clear, while much of the existing literature is confused and confusing.

Web browsers have come a long way since their inception, evolving from a simple means of displaying text documents over the network to complex software stacks with advanced graphics and network capabilities. As personal computers grew in popularity, developers jumped at the opportunity to deploy cross-platform games with centralized management and a low barrier to entry. Simply going to the right address is now enough to start a game. From text-based to GPU-powered 3D games, browser gaming has evolved to become a strong alternative to traditional console and mobile-based gaming, targeting both casual and advanced gamers. Browser technology has also evolved to accommodate more demanding applications, sometimes even supplanting functions typically left to the operating system. Today, websites display rich, computationally intensive, hardware-accelerated graphics, allowing developers to build ever-more impressive applications and games.In this paper, we present the evolution of browser gaming and the technologies that enabled it, from the release of the first text-based games in the early 1990s to current open-world and game-engine-powered browser games. We discuss the societal impact of browser gaming and how it has allowed a new target audience to accessdigital gaming. Finally, we review the potential future evolution ofthe browser gaming industry.

In temporal extensions of Answer Set Programming (ASP) based on linear-time, the behavior of dynamic systems is captured by sequences of states. While this representation reflects their relative order, it abstracts away the specific times associated with each state. However, timing constraints are important in many applications like, for instance, when planning and scheduling go hand in hand. We address this by developing a metric extension of linear-time temporal equilibrium logic, in which temporal operators are constrained by intervals over natural numbers. The resulting Metric Equilibrium Logic provides the foundation of an ASP-based approach for specifying qualitative and quantitative dynamic constraints. To this end, we define a translation of metric formulas into monadic first-order formulas and give a correspondence between their models in Metric Equilibrium Logic and Monadic Quantified Equilibrium Logic, respectively. Interestingly, our translation provides a blue print for implementation in terms of ASP modulo difference constraints.

Search engine has become a fundamental component in various web and mobile applications. Retrieving relevant documents from the massive datasets is challenging for a search engine system, especially when faced with verbose or tail queries. In this paper, we explore a vector space search framework for document retrieval. Specifically, we trained a deep semantic matching model so that each query and document can be encoded as a low dimensional embedding. Our model was trained based on BERT architecture. We deployed a fast k-nearest-neighbor index service for online serving. Both offline and online metrics demonstrate that our method improved retrieval performance and search quality considerably, particularly for tail

This paper proposes a recommender system to alleviate the cold-start problem that can estimate user preferences based on only a small number of items. To identify a user's preference in the cold state, existing recommender systems, such as Netflix, initially provide items to a user; we call those items evidence candidates. Recommendations are then made based on the items selected by the user. Previous recommendation studies have two limitations: (1) the users who consumed a few items have poor recommendations and (2) inadequate evidence candidates are used to identify user preferences. We propose a meta-learning-based recommender system called MeLU to overcome these two limitations. From meta-learning, which can rapidly adopt new task with a few examples, MeLU can estimate new user's preferences with a few consumed items. In addition, we provide an evidence candidate selection strategy that determines distinguishing items for customized preference estimation. We validate MeLU with two benchmark datasets, and the proposed model reduces at least 5.92% mean absolute error than two comparative models on the datasets. We also conduct a user study experiment to verify the evidence selection strategy.