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Causal mediation analysis (CMA) is a powerful method to dissect the total effect of a treatment into direct and mediated effects within the potential outcome framework. This is important in many scientific applications to identify the underlying mechanisms of a treatment effect. However, in many scientific applications the mediator is unobserved, but there may exist related measurements. For example, we may want to identify how changes in brain activity or structure mediate an antidepressant's effect on behavior, but we may only have access to electrophysiological or imaging brain measurements. To date, most CMA methods assume that the mediator is one-dimensional and observable, which oversimplifies such real-world scenarios. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a CMA framework that can handle complex and indirectly observed mediators based on the identifiable variational autoencoder (iVAE) architecture. We prove that the true joint distribution over observed and latent variables is identifiable with the proposed method. Additionally, our framework captures a disentangled representation of the indirectly observed mediator and yields accurate estimation of the direct and mediated effects in synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments, providing evidence of its potential utility in real-world applications.

Pini and Vantini (2017) introduced the interval-wise testing procedure which performs local inference for functional data defined on an interval domain, where the output is an adjusted p-value function that controls for type I errors. We extend this idea to a general setting where domain is a Riemannian manifolds. This requires new methodology such as how to define adjustment sets on product manifolds and how to approximate the test statistic when the domain has non-zero curvature. We propose to use permutation tests for inference and apply the procedure in three settings: a simulation on a "chameleon-shaped" manifold and two applications related to climate change where the manifolds are a complex subset of $S^2$ and $S^2 \times S^1$, respectively. We note the tradeoff between type I and type II errors: increasing the adjustment set reduces the type I error but also results in smaller areas of significance. However, some areas still remain significant even at maximal adjustment.

In this article, a new method, called FWP, is proposed for clustering longitudinal curves. In the proposed method, clusters of mean functions are identified through a weighted concave pairwise fusion method. The EM algorithm and the alternating direction method of multiplier algorithm are combined to estimate the group structure, mean functions and the principal components simultaneously. The proposed method also allows to incorporate the prior neighborhood information to have more meaningful groups by adding pairwise weights in the pairwise penalties. In the simulation study, the performance of the proposed method is compared to some existing clustering methods in terms of the accuracy for estimating the number of subgroups and mean functions. The results suggest that ignoring covariance structure will have a great effect on the performance of estimating the number of groups and estimating accuracy. The effect of including pairwise weights is also explored in a spatial lattice setting to take consideration of the spatial information. The results show that incorporating spatial weights will improve the performance. A real example is used to illustrate the proposed method.

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only provide either scalable computing or accurate approximations to the posterior distribution, but not both. We introduce a new MCMC sampling strategy for highly efficient and fully Bayesian regression with longitudinal functional data. Using a novel blocking structure paired with an orthogonalized basis reparametrization, our algorithm jointly samples the fixed effects regression functions together with all subject- and replicate-specific random effects functions. Crucially, the joint sampler optimizes sampling efficiency for these key parameters while preserving computational scalability. Perhaps surprisingly, our new MCMC sampling algorithm even surpasses state-of-the-art algorithms for frequentist estimation and variational Bayes approximations for functional mixed models -- while also providing accurate posterior uncertainty quantification -- and is orders of magnitude faster than existing Gibbs samplers. Simulation studies show improved point estimation and interval coverage in nearly all simulation settings over competing approaches. We apply our method to a large physical activity dataset to study how various demographic and health factors associate with intraday activity.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Correlated data are ubiquitous in today's data-driven society. While regression models for analyzing means and variances of responses of interest are relatively well-developed, the development of these models for analyzing the correlations is largely confined to longitudinal data, a special form of sequentially correlated data. This paper proposes a new method for the analysis of correlations to fully exploit the use of covariates for general correlated data. In a renewed analysis of the Classroom data, a highly unbalanced multilevel clustered data with within-class and within-school correlations, our method reveals informative insights on these structures not previously known. In another analysis of the malaria immune response data in Benin, a longitudinal study with time-dependent covariates where the exact times of the observations are not available, our approach again provides promising new results. At the heart of our approach is a new generalized z-transformation that converts correlation matrices constrained to be positive definite to vectors with unrestricted support, and is order-invariant. These two properties enable us to develop regression analysis incorporating covariates for the modelling of correlations via the use of maximum likelihood.

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference usually assumes a structural causal model is available. However, in practice, such a causal model is often unknown and may not be identifiable. This paper aims to perform reliable counterfactual inference based on the (learned) qualitative causal structure and observational data, without a given causal model or even directly estimating conditional distributions. We re-cast counterfactual reasoning as an extended quantile regression problem using neural networks. The approach is statistically more efficient than existing ones, and further makes it possible to develop the generalization ability of the estimated counterfactual outcome to unseen data and provide an upper bound on the generalization error. Experiment results on multiple datasets strongly support our theoretical claims.

We propose a method of constructing a joint statistical model for mixed-domain data to analyze their dependence. Multivariate Gaussian and log-linear models are particular examples of the proposed model. It is shown that the functional equation defining the model has a unique solution under fairly weak conditions. The model is characterized by two orthogonal sets of parameters: the dependence parameter and the marginal parameter. To estimate the dependence parameter, a conditional inference together with a sampling procedure is established and is shown to provide a consistent estimator of the dependence parameter. Illustrative examples of data analyses involving penguins and earthquakes are presented.

In this paper, we propose a model averaging approach for addressing model uncertainty in the context of partial linear functional additive models. These models are designed to describe the relation between a response and mixed-types of predictors by incorporating both the parametric effect of scalar variables and the additive effect of a functional variable. The proposed model averaging scheme assigns weights to candidate models based on the minimization of a multi-fold cross-validation criterion. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic optimality of the resulting estimator in terms of achieving the lowest possible square prediction error loss under model misspecification. Extensive simulation studies and an application to a near infrared spectra dataset are presented to support and illustrate our method.

Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.