We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.
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We present an efficient reinforcement learning algorithm that learns the optimal admission control policy in a partially observable queueing network. Specifically, only the arrival and departure times from the network are observable, and optimality refers to the average holding/rejection cost in infinite horizon. While reinforcement learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) is prohibitively expensive in general, we show that our algorithm has a regret that only depends sub-linearly on the maximal number of jobs in the network, $S$. In particular, in contrast with existing regret analyses, our regret bound does not depend on the diameter of the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP), which in most queueing systems is at least exponential in $S$. The novelty of our approach is to leverage Norton's equivalent theorem for closed product-form queueing networks and an efficient reinforcement learning algorithm for MDPs with the structure of birth-and-death processes.
Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely novel situations with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and the complexity in in-distribution (ID) situations with uncertainty estimation. We introduce two modules next to an encoder-decoder network for trajectory prediction. Firstly, a Gaussian mixture model learns the probability density function of the ID encoder features during training, and then it is used to detect the OOD samples in regions of the feature space with low likelihood. Secondly, an error regression network is applied to the encoder, which learns to estimate the trajectory prediction error in supervised training. During inference, the estimated prediction error is used as the uncertainty. In our experiments, the combination of both modules outperforms the prior work in OOD detection and uncertainty estimation, on the Shifts robust trajectory prediction dataset by $2.8 \%$ and $10.1 \%$, respectively. The code is publicly available.
Efficient differential equation solvers have significantly reduced the sampling time of diffusion models (DMs) while retaining high sampling quality. Among these solvers, exponential integrators (EI) have gained prominence by demonstrating state-of-the-art performance. However, existing high-order EI-based sampling algorithms rely on degenerate EI solvers, resulting in inferior error bounds and reduced accuracy in contrast to the theoretically anticipated results under optimal settings. This situation makes the sampling quality extremely vulnerable to seemingly innocuous design choices such as timestep schedules. For example, an inefficient timestep scheduler might necessitate twice the number of steps to achieve a quality comparable to that obtained through carefully optimized timesteps. To address this issue, we reevaluate the design of high-order differential solvers for DMs. Through a thorough order analysis, we reveal that the degeneration of existing high-order EI solvers can be attributed to the absence of essential order conditions. By reformulating the differential equations in DMs and capitalizing on the theory of exponential integrators, we propose refined EI solvers that fulfill all the order conditions, which we designate as Refined Exponential Solver (RES). Utilizing these improved solvers, RES exhibits more favorable error bounds theoretically and achieves superior sampling efficiency and stability in practical applications. For instance, a simple switch from the single-step DPM-Solver++ to our order-satisfied RES solver when Number of Function Evaluations (NFE) $=9$, results in a reduction of numerical defects by $25.2\%$ and FID improvement of $25.4\%$ (16.77 vs 12.51) on a pre-trained ImageNet diffusion model.
In the past decade, the amount of research being done in the fields of machine learning and deep learning, predominantly in the area of natural language processing (NLP), has risen dramatically. A well-liked method for developing programming abilities like logic building and problem solving is competitive programming. It can be tough for novices and even veteran programmers to traverse the wide collection of questions due to the massive number of accessible questions and the variety of themes, levels of difficulty, and questions offered. In order to help programmers find questions that are appropriate for their knowledge and interests, there is a need for an automated method. This can be done using automated tagging of the questions using Text Classification. Text classification is one of the important tasks widely researched in the field of Natural Language Processing. In this paper, we present a way to use text classification techniques to determine the domain of a competitive programming problem. A variety of models, including are implemented LSTM, GRU, and MLP. The dataset has been scraped from Codeforces, a major competitive programming website. A total of 2400 problems were scraped and preprocessed, which we used as a dataset for our training and testing of models. The maximum accuracy reached using our model is 78.0% by MLP(Multi Layer Perceptron).
Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely novel situations with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and the complexity in in-distribution (ID) situations with uncertainty estimation. We introduce two modules next to an encoder-decoder network for trajectory prediction. Firstly, a Gaussian mixture model learns the probability density function of the ID encoder features during training, and then it is used to detect the OOD samples in regions of the feature space with low likelihood. Secondly, an error regression network is applied to the encoder, which learns to estimate the trajectory prediction error in supervised training. During inference, the estimated prediction error is used as the uncertainty. In our experiments, the combination of both modules outperforms the prior work in OOD detection and uncertainty estimation, on the Shifts robust trajectory prediction dataset by $2.8 \%$ and $10.1 \%$, respectively. The code is publicly available.
We study the problem of allocating indivisible items to budget-constrained agents, aiming to provide fairness and efficiency guarantees. Specifically, our goal is to ensure that the resulting allocation is envy-free up to any item (EFx) while minimizing the amount of inefficiency that this needs to introduce. We first show that there exist two-agent problem instances for which no EFx allocation is Pareto efficient. We, therefore, turn to approximation and use the Nash social welfare maximizing allocation as a benchmark. For two-agent instances, we provide a procedure that always returns an EFx allocation while achieving the best possible approximation of the optimal Nash social welfare that EFx allocations can achieve. For the more complicated case of three-agent instances, we provide a procedure that guarantees EFx, while achieving a constant approximation of the optimal Nash social welfare for any number of items.
Causal probabilistic graph-based models have gained widespread utility, enabling the modeling of cause-and-effect relationships across diverse domains. With their rising adoption in new areas, such as automotive system safety and machine learning, the need for an integrated lifecycle framework akin to DevOps and MLOps has emerged. Currently, a process reference for organizations interested in employing causal engineering is missing. To address this gap and foster widespread industrial adoption, we propose CausalOps, a novel lifecycle framework for causal model development and application. By defining key entities, dependencies, and intermediate artifacts generated during causal engineering, we establish a consistent vocabulary and workflow model. This work contextualizes causal model usage across different stages and stakeholders, outlining a holistic view of creating and maintaining them. CausalOps' aim is to drive the adoption of causal methods in practical applications within interested organizations and the causality community.
We discretize a risk-neutral optimal control problem governed by a linear elliptic partial differential equation with random inputs using a Monte Carlo sample-based approximation and a finite element discretization, yielding finite dimensional control problems. We establish an exponential tail bound for the distance between the finite dimensional problems' solutions and the risk-neutral problem's solution. The tail bound implies that solutions to the risk-neutral optimal control problem can be reliably estimated with the solutions to the finite dimensional control problems. Numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical findings.
We present SEIF, a methodology that combines static analysis with symbolic execution to verify and explicate information flow paths in a hardware design. SEIF begins with a statically built model of the information flow through a design and uses guided symbolic execution to recognize and eliminate non-flows with high precision or to find corresponding paths through the design state for true flows. We evaluate SEIF on two open-source CPUs, an AES core, and the AKER access control module. SEIF can exhaustively explore 10-12 clock cycles deep in 4-6 seconds on average, and can automatically account for 86-90% of the paths in the statically built model. Additionally, SEIF can be used to find multiple violating paths for security properties, providing a new angle for security verification.
As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.
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