Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.
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Federated learning (FL) is an emerging machine learning paradigm that allows multiple parties to train a shared model collaboratively in a privacy-preserving manner. Existing horizontal FL methods generally assume that the FL server and clients hold the same model structure. However, due to system heterogeneity and the need for personalization, enabling clients to hold models with diverse structures has become an important direction. Existing model-heterogeneous FL approaches often require publicly available datasets and incur high communication and/or computational costs, which limit their performances. To address these limitations, we propose a simple but effective Federated Global prediction Header (FedGH) approach. It is a communication and computation-efficient model-heterogeneous FL framework which trains a shared generalized global prediction header with representations extracted by heterogeneous extractors for clients' models at the FL server. The trained generalized global prediction header learns from different clients. The acquired global knowledge is then transferred to clients to substitute each client's local prediction header. We derive the non-convex convergence rate of FedGH. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that FedGH achieves significantly more advantageous performance in both model-homogeneous and -heterogeneous FL scenarios compared to seven state-of-the-art personalized FL models, beating the best-performing baseline by up to 8.87% (for model-homogeneous FL) and 1.83% (for model-heterogeneous FL) in terms of average test accuracy, while saving up to 85.53% of communication overhead.
Shape completion, i.e., predicting the complete geometry of an object from a partial observation, is highly relevant for several downstream tasks, most notably robotic manipulation. When basing planning or prediction of real grasps on object shape reconstruction, an indication of severe geometric uncertainty is indispensable. In particular, there can be an irreducible uncertainty in extended regions about the presence of entire object parts when given ambiguous object views. To treat this important case, we propose two novel methods for predicting such uncertain regions as straightforward extensions of any method for predicting local spatial occupancy, one through postprocessing occupancy scores, the other through direct prediction of an uncertainty indicator. We compare these methods together with two known approaches to probabilistic shape completion. Moreover, we generate a dataset, derived from ShapeNet, of realistically rendered depth images of object views with ground-truth annotations for the uncertain regions. We train on this dataset and test each method in shape completion and prediction of uncertain regions for known and novel object instances and on synthetic and real data. While direct uncertainty prediction is by far the most accurate in the segmentation of uncertain regions, both novel methods outperform the two baselines in shape completion and uncertain region prediction, and avoiding the predicted uncertain regions increases the quality of grasps for all tested methods. Web: //github.com/DLR-RM/shape-completion
We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules.
Data uncertainties, such as sensor noise or occlusions, can introduce irreducible ambiguities in images, which result in varying, yet plausible, semantic hypotheses. In Machine Learning, this ambiguity is commonly referred to as aleatoric uncertainty. Latent density models can be utilized to address this problem in image segmentation. The most popular approach is the Probabilistic U-Net (PU-Net), which uses latent Normal densities to optimize the conditional data log-likelihood Evidence Lower Bound. In this work, we demonstrate that the PU- Net latent space is severely inhomogenous. As a result, the effectiveness of gradient descent is inhibited and the model becomes extremely sensitive to the localization of the latent space samples, resulting in defective predictions. To address this, we present the Sinkhorn PU-Net (SPU-Net), which uses the Sinkhorn Divergence to promote homogeneity across all latent dimensions, effectively improving gradient-descent updates and model robustness. Our results show that by applying this on public datasets of various clinical segmentation problems, the SPU-Net receives up to 11% performance gains compared against preceding latent variable models for probabilistic segmentation on the Hungarian-Matched metric. The results indicate that by encouraging a homogeneous latent space, one can significantly improve latent density modeling for medical image segmentation.
Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a user-specified coverage (i.e., true class label is contained with high probability). Almost all the existing work on CP assumes clean testing data and there is not much known about the robustness of CP algorithms w.r.t natural/adversarial perturbations to testing examples. This paper studies the problem of probabilistically robust conformal prediction (PRCP) which ensures robustness to most perturbations around clean input examples. PRCP generalizes the standard CP (cannot handle perturbations) and adversarially robust CP (ensures robustness w.r.t worst-case perturbations) to achieve better trade-offs between nominal performance and robustness. We propose a novel adaptive PRCP (aPRCP) algorithm to achieve probabilistically robust coverage. The key idea behind aPRCP is to determine two parallel thresholds, one for data samples and another one for the perturbations on data (aka "quantile-of-quantile" design). We provide theoretical analysis to show that aPRCP algorithm achieves robust coverage. Our experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet datasets using deep neural networks demonstrate that aPRCP achieves better trade-offs than state-of-the-art CP and adversarially robust CP algorithms.
In this paper, we propose a method for estimating model parameters using Small-Angle Scattering (SAS) data based on the Bayesian inference. Conventional SAS data analyses involve processes of manual parameter adjustment by analysts or optimization using gradient methods. These analysis processes tend to involve heuristic approaches and may lead to local solutions.Furthermore, it is difficult to evaluate the reliability of the results obtained by conventional analysis methods. Our method solves these problems by estimating model parameters as probability distributions from SAS data using the framework of the Bayesian inference. We evaluate the performance of our method through numerical experiments using artificial data of representative measurement target models.From the results of the numerical experiments, we show that our method provides not only high accuracy and reliability of estimation, but also perspectives on the transition point of estimability with respect to the measurement time and the lower bound of the angular domain of the measured data.
Operator learning frameworks, because of their ability to learn nonlinear maps between two infinite dimensional functional spaces and utilization of neural networks in doing so, have recently emerged as one of the more pertinent areas in the field of applied machine learning. Although these frameworks are extremely capable when it comes to modeling complex phenomena, they require an extensive amount of data for successful training which is often not available or is too expensive. However, this issue can be alleviated with the use of multi-fidelity learning, where a model is trained by making use of a large amount of inexpensive low-fidelity data along with a small amount of expensive high-fidelity data. To this end, we develop a new framework based on the wavelet neural operator which is capable of learning from a multi-fidelity dataset. The developed model's excellent learning capabilities are demonstrated by solving different problems which require effective correlation learning between the two fidelities for surrogate construction. Furthermore, we also assess the application of the developed framework for uncertainty quantification. The results obtained from this work illustrate the excellent performance of the proposed framework.
Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic in statistics and machine learning, but only recently have they been extended to non-exchangeable data. In this paper, we invite survey methodologists to begin using and contributing to conformal methods. We introduce how conformal prediction can be applied to data from several common complex sample survey designs, under a framework of design-based inference for a finite population, and we point out gaps where survey methodologists could fruitfully apply their expertise. Our simulations empirically bear out the theoretical guarantees of finite-sample coverage, and our real-data example demonstrates how conformal prediction can be applied to complex sample survey data in practice.
Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
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