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We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend and the second layer the country-specific deviation from the common trend. We add a third layer to capture the country-specific impact of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 in excess of the pre-COVID trend. We use weekly mortality data from the Short Term Mortality Fluctuations Database to calibrate this third factor, and we use a more granular dataset for deaths in the Netherlands to assess the added value of more detailed data. We use our framework to define mortality forecasts based on different possible scenarios for the future course the pandemic.

Knowledge-based visual question answering (VQA) involves answering questions that require external knowledge not present in the image. Existing methods first retrieve knowledge from external resources, then reason over the selected knowledge, the input image, and question for answer prediction. However, this two-step approach could lead to mismatches that potentially limit the VQA performance. For example, the retrieved knowledge might be noisy and irrelevant to the question, and the re-embedded knowledge features during reasoning might deviate from their original meanings in the knowledge base (KB). To address this challenge, we propose PICa, a simple yet effective method that Prompts GPT3 via the use of Image Captions, for knowledge-based VQA. Inspired by GPT-3's power in knowledge retrieval and question answering, instead of using structured KBs as in previous work, we treat GPT-3 as an implicit and unstructured KB that can jointly acquire and process relevant knowledge. Specifically, we first convert the image into captions (or tags) that GPT-3 can understand, then adapt GPT-3 to solve the VQA task in a few-shot manner by just providing a few in-context VQA examples. We further boost performance by carefully investigating: (i) what text formats best describe the image content, and (ii) how in-context examples can be better selected and used. PICa unlocks the first use of GPT-3 for multimodal tasks. By using only 16 examples, PICa surpasses the supervised state of the art by an absolute +8.6 points on the OK-VQA dataset. We also benchmark PICa on VQAv2, where PICa also shows a decent few-shot performance.

Automatic processing of language is becoming pervasive in our lives, often taking central roles in our decision making, like choosing the wording for our messages and mails, translating our readings, or even having full conversations with us. Word embeddings are a key component of modern natural language processing systems. They provide a representation of words that has boosted the performance of many applications, working as a semblance of meaning. Word embeddings seem to capture a semblance of the meaning of words from raw text, but, at the same time, they also distill stereotypes and societal biases which are subsequently relayed to the final applications. Such biases can be discriminatory. It is very important to detect and mitigate those biases, to prevent discriminatory behaviors of automated processes, which can be much more harmful than in the case of humans because their of their scale. There are currently many tools and techniques to detect and mitigate biases in word embeddings, but they present many barriers for the engagement of people without technical skills. As it happens, most of the experts in bias, either social scientists or people with deep knowledge of the context where bias is harmful, do not have such skills, and they cannot engage in the processes of bias detection because of the technical barriers. We have studied the barriers in existing tools and have explored their possibilities and limitations with different kinds of users. With this exploration, we propose to develop a tool that is specially aimed to lower the technical barriers and provide the exploration power to address the requirements of experts, scientists and people in general who are willing to audit these technologies.

Manual coding of text data from open-ended questions into different categories is time consuming and expensive. Automated coding uses statistical/machine learning to train on a small subset of manually coded text answers. Recently, pre-training a general language model on vast amounts of unrelated data and then adapting the model to the specific application has proven effective in natural language processing. Using two data sets, we empirically investigate whether BERT, the currently dominant pre-trained language model, is more effective at automated coding of answers to open-ended questions than other non-pre-trained statistical learning approaches. We found fine-tuning the pre-trained BERT parameters is essential as otherwise BERT's is not competitive. Second, we found fine-tuned BERT barely beats the non-pre-trained statistical learning approaches in terms of classification accuracy when trained on 100 manually coded observations. However, BERT's relative advantage increases rapidly when more manually coded observations (e.g. 200-400) are available for training. We conclude that for automatically coding answers to open-ended questions BERT is preferable to non-pretrained models such as support vector machines and boosting.

We carry out the first in-depth characterization of residential proxies (RESIPs) in China, for which little is studied in previous works. Our study is made possible through a semantic-based classifier to automatically capture RESIP services. In addition to the classifier, new techniques have also been identified to capture RESIPs without interacting with and relaying traffic through RESIP services, which can significantly lower the cost and thus allow a continuous monitoring of RESIPs. Our RESIP service classifier has achieved a good performance with a recall of 99.7% and a precision of 97.6% in 10-fold cross validation. Applying the classifier has identified 399 RESIP services, a much larger set compared to 38 RESIP services collected in all previous works. Our effort of RESIP capturing lead to a collection of 9,077,278 RESIP IPs (51.36% are located in China), 96.70% of which are not covered in publicly available RESIP datasets. An extensive measurement on RESIPs and their services has uncovered a set of interesting findings as well as several security implications. Especially, 80.05% RESIP IPs located in China have sourced at least one malicious traffic flows during 2021, resulting in 52-million malicious traffic flows in total. And RESIPs have also been observed in corporation networks of 559 sensitive organizations including government agencies, education institutions and enterprises. Also, 3,232,698 China RESIP IPs have opened at least one TCP/UDP ports for accepting relaying requests, which incurs non-negligible security risks to the local network of RESIPs. Besides, 91% China RESIP IPs are of a lifetime less than 10 days while most China RESIP services show up a crest-trough pattern in terms of the daily active RESIPs across time.

We prove that the dynamics of the MBO scheme for data clustering converge to a viscosity solution to mean curvature flow. The main ingredients are (i) a new abstract convergence result based on quantitative estimates for heat operators and (ii) the derivation of these estimates in the setting of random geometric graphs. To implement the scheme in practice, two important parameters are the number of eigenvalues for computing the heat operator and the step size of the scheme. The results of the current paper give a theoretical justification for the choice of these parameters in relation to sample size and interaction width.

BERT is a widely used pre-trained model in natural language processing. However, because its time and space requirements increase with a quadratic level of the text length, the BERT model is difficult to use directly on the long-text corpus. The collected text data is usually quite long in some fields, such as health care. Therefore, to apply the pre-trained language knowledge of BERT to long text, in this paper, imitating the skimming-intensive reading method used by humans when reading a long paragraph, the Skimming-Intensive Model (SkIn) is proposed. It can dynamically select the critical information in the text so that the length of the input into the BERT-Base model is significantly reduced, which can effectively save the cost of the classification algorithm. Experiments show that the SkIn method has achieved better results than the baselines on long-text classification datasets in the medical field, while its time and space requirements increase linearly with the text length, alleviating the time and space overflow problem of BERT on long-text data.

Knowledge enhanced pre-trained language models (K-PLMs) are shown to be effective for many public tasks in the literature but few of them have been successfully applied in practice. To address this problem, we propose K-AID, a systematic approach that includes a low-cost knowledge acquisition process for acquiring domain knowledge, an effective knowledge infusion module for improving model performance, and a knowledge distillation component for reducing the model size and deploying K-PLMs on resource-restricted devices (e.g., CPU) for real-world application. Importantly, instead of capturing entity knowledge like the majority of existing K-PLMs, our approach captures relational knowledge, which contributes to better-improving sentence-level text classification and text matching tasks that play a key role in question answering (QA). We conducted a set of experiments on five text classification tasks and three text matching tasks from three domains, namely E-commerce, Government, and Film&TV, and performed online A/B tests in E-commerce. Experimental results show that our approach is able to achieve substantial improvement on sentence-level question answering tasks and bring beneficial business value in industrial settings.

We present a novel counterfactual framework for both Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) and Open-Set Recognition (OSR), whose common challenge is generalizing to the unseen-classes by only training on the seen-classes. Our idea stems from the observation that the generated samples for unseen-classes are often out of the true distribution, which causes severe recognition rate imbalance between the seen-class (high) and unseen-class (low). We show that the key reason is that the generation is not Counterfactual Faithful, and thus we propose a faithful one, whose generation is from the sample-specific counterfactual question: What would the sample look like, if we set its class attribute to a certain class, while keeping its sample attribute unchanged? Thanks to the faithfulness, we can apply the Consistency Rule to perform unseen/seen binary classification, by asking: Would its counterfactual still look like itself? If ``yes'', the sample is from a certain class, and ``no'' otherwise. Through extensive experiments on ZSL and OSR, we demonstrate that our framework effectively mitigates the seen/unseen imbalance and hence significantly improves the overall performance. Note that this framework is orthogonal to existing methods, thus, it can serve as a new baseline to evaluate how ZSL/OSR models generalize. Codes are available at //github.com/yue-zhongqi/gcm-cf.

With the rise of knowledge graph (KG), question answering over knowledge base (KBQA) has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Despite much research has been conducted on this topic, it is still challenging to apply KBQA technology in industry because business knowledge and real-world questions can be rather complicated. In this paper, we present AliMe-KBQA, a bold attempt to apply KBQA in the E-commerce customer service field. To handle real knowledge and questions, we extend the classic "subject-predicate-object (SPO)" structure with property hierarchy, key-value structure and compound value type (CVT), and enhance traditional KBQA with constraints recognition and reasoning ability. We launch AliMe-KBQA in the Marketing Promotion scenario for merchants during the "Double 11" period in 2018 and other such promotional events afterwards. Online results suggest that AliMe-KBQA is not only able to gain better resolution and improve customer satisfaction, but also becomes the preferred knowledge management method by business knowledge staffs since it offers a more convenient and efficient management experience.