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Semi-competing risks refers to the survival analysis setting where the occurrence of a non-terminal event is subject to whether a terminal event has occurred, but not vice versa. Semi-competing risks arise in a broad range of clinical contexts, with a novel example being the pregnancy condition preeclampsia, which can only occur before the `terminal' event of giving birth. Models that acknowledge semi-competing risks enable investigation of relationships between covariates and the joint timing of the outcomes, but methods for model selection and prediction of semi-competing risks in high dimensions are lacking. Instead, researchers commonly analyze only a single or composite outcome, losing valuable information and limiting clinical utility -- in the obstetric setting, this means ignoring valuable insight into timing of delivery after preeclampsia has onset. To address this gap we propose a novel penalized estimation framework for frailty-based illness-death multi-state modeling of semi-competing risks. Our approach combines non-convex and structured fusion penalization, inducing global sparsity as well as parsimony across submodels. We perform estimation and model selection via a pathwise routine for non-convex optimization, and prove the first statistical error bound results in this setting. We present a simulation study investigating estimation error and model selection performance, and a comprehensive application of the method to joint risk modeling of preeclampsia and timing of delivery using pregnancy data from an electronic health record.

Informative interim adaptations lead to random sample sizes. The random sample size becomes a component of the sufficient statistic and estimation based solely on observed samples or on the likelihood function does not use all available statistical evidence. The total Fisher Information (FI) is decomposed into the design FI and a conditional-on-design FI. The FI unspent by the interim adaptation is used to determine the lower mean squared error in post-adaptation estimation. Theoretical results are illustrated with simple normal samples collected according to a two-stage design with a possibility of early stopping.

This paper presents a novel color scheme designed to address the challenge of visualizing data series with large value ranges, where scale transformation provides limited support. We focus on meteorological data, where the presence of large value ranges is common. We apply our approach to meteorological scatterplots, as one of the most common plots used in this domain area. Our approach leverages the numerical representation of mantissa and exponent of the values to guide the design of novel "nested" color schemes, able to emphasize differences between magnitudes. Our user study evaluates the new designs, the state of the art color scales and representative color schemes used in the analysis of meteorological data: ColorCrafter, Viridis, and Rainbow. We assess accuracy, time and confidence in the context of discrimination (comparison) and interpretation (reading) tasks. Our proposed color scheme significantly outperforms the others in interpretation tasks, while showing comparable performances in discrimination tasks.

In this paper we discuss an application of Stochastic Approximation to statistical estimation of high-dimensional sparse parameters. The proposed solution reduces to resolving a penalized stochastic optimization problem on each stage of a multistage algorithm; each problem being solved to a prescribed accuracy by the non-Euclidean Composite Stochastic Mirror Descent (CSMD) algorithm. Assuming that the problem objective is smooth and quadratically minorated and stochastic perturbations are sub-Gaussian, our analysis prescribes the method parameters which ensure fast convergence of the estimation error (the radius of a confidence ball of a given norm around the approximate solution). This convergence is linear during the first "preliminary" phase of the routine and is sublinear during the second "asymptotic" phase. We consider an application of the proposed approach to sparse Generalized Linear Regression problem. In this setting, we show that the proposed algorithm attains the optimal convergence of the estimation error under weak assumptions on the regressor distribution. We also present a numerical study illustrating the performance of the algorithm on high-dimensional simulation data.

A simple generative model based on a continuous-time normalizing flow between any pair of base and target probability densities is proposed. The velocity field of this flow is inferred from the probability current of a time-dependent density that interpolates between the base and the target in finite time. Unlike conventional normalizing flow inference methods based the maximum likelihood principle, which require costly backpropagation through ODE solvers, our interpolant approach leads to a simple quadratic loss for the velocity itself which is expressed in terms of expectations that are readily amenable to empirical estimation. The flow can be used to generate samples from either the base or target, and to estimate the likelihood at any time along the interpolant. In addition, the flow can be optimized to minimize the path length of the interpolant density, thereby paving the way for building optimal transport maps. The approach is also contextualized in its relation to diffusions. In particular, in situations where the base is a Gaussian density, we show that the velocity of our normalizing flow can also be used to construct a diffusion model to sample the target as well as estimating its score. This allows one to map methods based on stochastic differential equations to those using ordinary differential equations, simplifying the mechanics of the model, but capturing equivalent dynamics. Benchmarking on density estimation tasks illustrates that the learned flow can match and surpass maximum likelihood continuous flows at a fraction of the conventional ODE training costs.

Resource constrained project scheduling is an important combinatorial optimisation problem with many practical applications. With complex requirements such as precedence constraints, limited resources, and finance-based objectives, finding optimal solutions for large problem instances is very challenging even with well-customised meta-heuristics and matheuristics. To address this challenge, we propose a new math-heuristic algorithm based on Merge Search and parallel computing to solve the resource constrained project scheduling with the aim of maximising the net present value. This paper presents a novel matheuristic framework designed for resource constrained project scheduling, Merge search, which is a variable partitioning and merging mechanism to formulate restricted mixed integer programs with the aim of improving an existing pool of solutions. The solution pool is obtained via a customised parallel ant colony optimisation algorithm, which is also capable of generating high quality solutions on its own. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the current state-of-the-art algorithms on known benchmark problem instances. Further analyses also demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is substantially more efficient compared to its counterparts in respect to its convergence properties when considering multiple cores.

We develop an algorithmic framework for solving convex optimization problems using no-regret game dynamics. By converting the problem of minimizing a convex function into an auxiliary problem of solving a min-max game in a sequential fashion, we can consider a range of strategies for each of the two-players who must select their actions one after the other. A common choice for these strategies are so-called no-regret learning algorithms, and we describe a number of such and prove bounds on their regret. We then show that many classical first-order methods for convex optimization -- including average-iterate gradient descent, the Frank-Wolfe algorithm, the Heavy Ball algorithm, and Nesterov's acceleration methods -- can be interpreted as special cases of our framework as long as each player makes the correct choice of no-regret strategy. Proving convergence rates in this framework becomes very straightforward, as they follow from plugging in the appropriate known regret bounds. Our framework also gives rise to a number of new first-order methods for special cases of convex optimization that were not previously known.

While consolidation strategies form the backbone of many supply chain optimisation problems, exploitation of multi-tier material relationships through consolidation remains an understudied area, despite being a prominent feature of industries that produce complex made-to-order products. In this paper, we propose an optimisation framework for exploiting multi-to-multi relationship between tiers of a supply chain. The resulting formulation is flexible such that quantity discounts, inventory holding and transport costs can be included. The framework introduces a new trade-off between the tiers, resulting in cost reductions at one tier at the expense of increased costs in the other tier, which helps to reduce the overall procurement cost in the supply chain. A mixed integer linear programming model is developed and tested with a range of small to large-scale test problems from aerospace manufacturing. Our comparison to benchmark results show that there is indeed a cost trade-off between two tiers, and that its reduction can be achieved using a holistic approach to reconfiguration. Costs are decreased when second tier fixed ordering costs and the number of machining options increase. Consolidation results in less inventory holding costs for all cases. A number of secondary effects such as simplified supplier selection may also be observed.

Sequential recommendation as an emerging topic has attracted increasing attention due to its important practical significance. Models based on deep learning and attention mechanism have achieved good performance in sequential recommendation. Recently, the generative models based on Variational Autoencoder (VAE) have shown the unique advantage in collaborative filtering. In particular, the sequential VAE model as a recurrent version of VAE can effectively capture temporal dependencies among items in user sequence and perform sequential recommendation. However, VAE-based models suffer from a common limitation that the representational ability of the obtained approximate posterior distribution is limited, resulting in lower quality of generated samples. This is especially true for generating sequences. To solve the above problem, in this work, we propose a novel method called Adversarial and Contrastive Variational Autoencoder (ACVAE) for sequential recommendation. Specifically, we first introduce the adversarial training for sequence generation under the Adversarial Variational Bayes (AVB) framework, which enables our model to generate high-quality latent variables. Then, we employ the contrastive loss. The latent variables will be able to learn more personalized and salient characteristics by minimizing the contrastive loss. Besides, when encoding the sequence, we apply a recurrent and convolutional structure to capture global and local relationships in the sequence. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on four real-world datasets. The experimental results show that our proposed ACVAE model outperforms other state-of-the-art methods.

Graph Convolution Networks (GCNs) manifest great potential in recommendation. This is attributed to their capability on learning good user and item embeddings by exploiting the collaborative signals from the high-order neighbors. Like other GCN models, the GCN based recommendation models also suffer from the notorious over-smoothing problem - when stacking more layers, node embeddings become more similar and eventually indistinguishable, resulted in performance degradation. The recently proposed LightGCN and LR-GCN alleviate this problem to some extent, however, we argue that they overlook an important factor for the over-smoothing problem in recommendation, that is, high-order neighboring users with no common interests of a user can be also involved in the user's embedding learning in the graph convolution operation. As a result, the multi-layer graph convolution will make users with dissimilar interests have similar embeddings. In this paper, we propose a novel Interest-aware Message-Passing GCN (IMP-GCN) recommendation model, which performs high-order graph convolution inside subgraphs. The subgraph consists of users with similar interests and their interacted items. To form the subgraphs, we design an unsupervised subgraph generation module, which can effectively identify users with common interests by exploiting both user feature and graph structure. To this end, our model can avoid propagating negative information from high-order neighbors into embedding learning. Experimental results on three large-scale benchmark datasets show that our model can gain performance improvement by stacking more layers and outperform the state-of-the-art GCN-based recommendation models significantly.